9 out of 12 months will have a film break its OW record 2015?

[Neo]

If it get 209m then beating it's predecessor wouldn't have been a walk in a park lol

That's lowballing.

[Noctis]

What's your prediction, Neo?

[BadAtGender]

That's lowballing.

 

How many showtimes do you think it's going to get over the weekend?

[Neo]

How many showtimes do you think it's going to get over the weekend?

 

Screen count and show times are more important and if I remember correctly TA1 was around 12K SC while IM3 was over 13K. 

 

I looked it up on BOM. TA1 had 11.8K SC over the OD with 43K+ showtimes while IM3 had 13.2K SC and 52.7K showtimes on Friday and 56.8K showtimes on Saturday. 

So looking how IM3 increased by nearly 10k on OD I would say 165K+ or so.

[BadAtGender]

So looking how IM3 increased by nearly 10k on OD I would say 165K+ or so.

 

165k would be a new record, but I could see it.

 

So what's the average ticket price going to be OW? $8.50 or something? Let's go with that.

 

To get 210m for OW, it would need to sell about an average 150 tickets per showtime throughout the weekend.

 

For every 10 tickets you add or subtract to the average showtime the weekend gross will go up or down by 15m, give or take.

 

How many people, on average, are going to be sitting at each of these showtimes?

[Neo]

165k would be a new record, but I could see it.

 

So what's the average ticket price going to be OW? $8.50 or something? Let's go with that.

 

To get 210m for OW, it would need to sell about an average 150 tickets per showtime throughout the weekend.

 

For every 10 tickets you add or subtract to the average showtime the weekend gross will go up or down by 15m, give or take.

 

How many people, on average, are going to be sitting at each of these showtimes?

Have to factor theaters in LA that seat 300+ and aren't some in the 400+ range. Also slow time in theaters so will probably give an extra screen at night to it to offset you give or take.

 

Just got 263M like I did before.

55K showtimes for Friday, 59K for Saturday, 53K for Sunday at 8.25  a ticket and 191 people per show. Not saying it will get 263M, but possible.

 

Got 191 by using those numbers druv10 and estimated SAT/SUN for Avengers and got 191 people per show.

Edited February 18, 2015 by Neo

[BadAtGender]

Have to factor theaters in LA that seat 300+ and aren't some in the 400+ range. Also slow time in theaters so will probably give an extra screen at night to it to offset you give or take.

 

Yes, there are some very large theaters that can hold several hundred people. There are also many theaters that can't even hold a hundred. Theater sizes vary, which is why I'm wondering what the average number of tickets sold per showtime is going to be.

 

The slow times and all is irrelevant, because that's included in the total number of screenings over the weekend. But regardless if you look at the data for total showtimes and screens on BOM you'll find that most  films come out to around 12 showtimes on average for the weekend for openers.

[bapi]

IMHO The Avengers will decrease. 185-195M OW.

[bapi]

But yeah - April, June, September and December OW records will be broken.

[bcf26]

January: Check

American Sniper (89.2M)

 

February: Check

Fifty Shades of Grey (85.1M)

 

April: Check

Fast and Furious 7 (Estimates at 140M+)

 

3 out of 12 so far

[Kalo]

This could legitimately happen, the only months I'm not sure on are Sept and Oct. way to low for Star Wars though.

Edited April 5, 2015 by Kalo

[Ethan Hunt]

This could legitimately happen, the only months I'm not sure on are Sept and Oct. way to low for Star Wars though.

June won't happen and July defs won't happen

[babz06]

This could legitimately happen, the only months I'm not sure on are Sept and Oct. way to low for Star Wars though.

Well now some people here are starting to doubt that the May record will go down. If May isnt going down, than the rest of the year has no shot. July is a no. August is a no. So that means October and September have to do it in order to have a shot. It's not likely. 

[grim22]

The month this whole club was hinging on i.e. May did not deliver. March didn't happen, July isn't going to happen, and August had a chance if Rogue Nation was a day later. October is also looking like a long shot currently. 

[Masterwolf]

A Day Later. Really???? that's a Saturday...that's dumb

[mahnamahna]

The month this whole club was hinging on i.e. May did not deliver. March didn't happen, July isn't going to happen, and August had a chance if Rogue Nation was a day later. October is also looking like a long shot currently. 

Rogue Nation has less than a 10% of opening above $85 million on just about any release date, so August wouldn't happen either way. 

 

Personally, I see:

June - Jurassic World with $120 to 130 million OW

July - not possible due to DH2

August - not happening 

September - Maze Runner 2 or Hotel Transylvania 2 with $44-48 million OWs 

October - possibly Crimson Peak or The Walk (very unlikely, but possible if either are extremely well-marketed)

November - Mockingjay Part 2 with $160 to 175 million 

December - Star Wars Episode VII easily with $120 to 180 million (range is extremely wide) 

 

So 7/8 out of 12 months, because Avengers 2 just couldn't pull it off  That still has to be a record though? 

Edited May 5, 2015 by mahnamahna

[alisson23]

If mr2 is a wednesday release, bye september OW record.

[DAJK]

Yea the Wednesday debut will kill Scorch Trials' chances. OW itself will probably stay flat with 42-45M 5-day.

[mahnamahna]

If mr2 is a wednesday release, bye september OW record.

Hotel Transylvania 2 could do $45-47 million OW and break the record. Considering the gap between it and Pixels will be roughly 63 days, there will have been a slight drought in family-friendly offerings. 

[alisson23]

Hotel Transylvania 2 could do $45-47 million OW and break the record. Considering the gap between it and Pixels will be roughly 63 days, there will have been a slight drought in family-friendly offerings.

I forgot about HT2, it has a bigger chance