Weekend Numbers Jan 23-25 pg 46(AS 64 mill, Mom's cookies 15)

[LexJoker]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 2m2 minutes ago

THE BOY NEXT DOOR earned an estimated $500K from Thursday's early shows. #TheBoyNextDoor http://fb.me/1zgsbKDTq

Edited January 24, 2015 by LexJoker

[DAJK]

What are some comparable #s? Pompeii? No good deed?

[grim22]

What are some comparable #s? Pompeii? No good deed?

 

Wedding Ringer was 800k - 20M

Nightcrawler 520k - 10M

Get on up 370k - 13M

That Awkward Moment 250k - 8M

 

No good deed may have been the best comp, but it didn't have preview showings.

[grim22]

Just checked Movietickets.com and The Boy Next Door is the only new release on the top 5 sellers list. Mortdecai and Strange Magic are nowhere to be seen.

[CJohn]

The Boy Next Door is gonna do 15M or so.

[grim22]

Threadplug. Send in your top movies of 2014 list to me via PM by January 30: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/17147-bofs-top-25-movies-of-2014-send-in-your-lists-through-january-30/

[rockNrollaDIM]

Not too shabby, JLo. I think this looks deliciously bad. Can't wait to Redbox it

[La Binoche]

Not too shabby, JLo. I think this looks deliciously bad. Can't wait to Redbox it

 

I'm gonna see it the way thrash like this is meant to be seen: with a big ghetto crowd. 

[DAJK]

Threadplug. Send in your top movies of 2014 list to me via PM by January 30: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/17147-bofs-top-25-movies-of-2014-send-in-your-lists-through-january-30/

Ill have it for you this weekend

[rockNrollaDIM]

I'm gonna see it the way thrash like this is meant to be seen: with a big ghetto crowd. 

 

Oh, tempting. I'll never forget seeing The Roommate in a theater full of young, loud Dominican and Puerto Rican people. Funnest moviegoing experience of my life.

[grim22]

http://www.thewrap.com/johnny-depps-mortdecai-flopping-for-his-5th-straight-box-office-bombs/

 

Johnny Depp was setting off another box-office bomb Friday, as the ensemble action comedy “Mortdecai” got off to a slow start.

“Mortdecai” will come in at less than $6 million for the weekend and be Depp’s fifth consecutive flop as a leading man, if it stays on the pace it was setting early Friday.

The Iraq War saga “American Sniper” for the top spot this weekend, though “The Boy Next Door” is headed towards a respectable $15 million opening.

“American Sniper” is on pace to hit around $60 million, while “Strange Magic” is also eyeing the $6 million range.

 

[grim22]

Noon industry estimates are flying in, and Warner Bros. American Sniper is looking at setting another enormous weekend with a projected $59.3M.  That’s the second highest weekend ever for a film in January, afterSniper‘s gigantic FSS of $89.3M. Friday alone looks to be $17.45M, which is just under what the Clint Eastwood film posted on MLK Monday ($17.9M).  Universal’s Blumhouse thriller The Boy Next Door is looking quite sexy at No. 2. The $4M film is on a track to make $16.5M and a potential $6M Friday.  After that last weekend’s holdovers Paddington, The Wedding Ringer are eyeing spots three and four with respective estimated weekend takes of $12.5M and $11M. Taken 3 in its third weekend is looking at $7.05M with a $2M Friday, raising its cume on Sunday to about $75.5M.  It’s not quite certain exactly where newcomers Disney’s Strange Magic and Lionsgate’s Mortdecai will rank. Strange Magic is being estimated at $1.5M for Friday and a $6M weekend, while the Johnny Depp absurdist R-rated comedy is looking at $2M today with $5.8M for the weekend. Again, these are early third-party estimates.

[rockNrollaDIM]

TBND only cost $4m? Did J.Lo do it for free? 

[Frozen]

TBND only cost $4m? Did J.Lo do it for free? 

She said on tv that she had to wear her own clothes in the film. There was no wardrobe for anyone.

[John Marston]

Boy Next Door will make a good profit

[kitik]

TBND only cost $4m? Did J.Lo do it for free? 

 

So TBND cost significantly less than Mortdecai and Strange Magic (I think its safe to assume) but will make a lot more at the box office.

 

That old trick.

[grim22]

Sniper has an outside chance of hitting 200M before the end of the weekend, that is crazy.

[kitik]

Boy Next Door will make a good profit

 

Lets assume marketing budget of 20-25M? (Has it been reported anywhere?)

 

If that's the case, it probably needs to make about 60M worldwide to break even. I'm not sure it's at the super big profit level just yet.

 

Of course I'm just making those numbers up, but if anyone has any better guesses, fire away.

[kitik]

grim22, on 23 Jan 2015 - 4:23 PM, said:

Sniper has an outside chance of hitting 200M before the end of the weekend, that is crazy.

 

 

64.3 is a bit of a big ask.

 

 

Only 25 movies have even hit 50M all time in their second weekend. 60M is really rare air, with only 10 movies having done so.

 

 

TOP WEEKENDS: 2ND – 12TH

 

• 2nd
• 3rd
• 4th
• 5th
• 6th
• 7th
• 8th
• 9th
• 10th
• 11th
• 12th

Note: This chart only shows the top 200 movies, regardless of sorting.

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weeknd Gross*	% of Total	Theaters / Avg.		Total Gross^	Date**
1	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$103,052,274	16.5%	4,349	$23,696	$623,357,910	5/4/12
2	Avatar	Fox	$75,617,183	10.1%	3,456	$21,880	$749,766,139	12/18/09
3	The Dark Knight	WB	$75,166,466	14.1%	4,366	$17,216	$533,345,358	7/18/08
4	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	LGF	$74,179,601	17.5%	4,163	$17,819	$424,668,047	11/22/13
5	Iron Man 3	BV	$72,525,615	17.7%	4,253	$17,053	$409,013,994	5/3/13
6	Shrek 2	DW	$72,170,363	16.4%	4,223	$17,089	$441,226,247	5/19/04
7	Spider-Man	Sony	$71,417,527	17.7%	3,615	$19,755	$403,706,375	5/3/02
8	Alice in Wonderland (2010)	BV	$62,714,076	18.8%	3,728	$16,822	$334,191,110	3/5/10
9	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$62,345,264	14.7%	4,133	$15,084	$423,315,812	7/7/06
10	The Dark Knight Rises	WB	$62,101,451	13.9%	4,404	$14,101	$448,139,099	7/20/12
11	Toy Story 3	BV	$59,337,669	14.3%	4,028	$14,731	$415,004,880	6/18/10
12	The Hunger Games	LGF	$58,551,063	14.4%	4,137	$14,153	$408,010,692	3/23/12
13	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$58,166,256	17.3%	4,252	$13,679	$336,530,303	5/4/07
14	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	WB	$57,487,755	18.1%	3,672	$15,655	$317,575,550	11/16/01
15	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1	LGF	$56,972,599	17.1%	4,151	$13,725	$333,180,638	11/21/14
16	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	$55,205,972	14.5%	3,663	$15,071	$380,270,577	5/19/05
17	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	WB	$54,727,138	18.9%	3,858	$14,185	$290,013,036	11/18/05
18	The Passion of the Christ	NM	$53,246,801	14.4%	3,170	$16,797	$370,274,604	2/25/04
19	Shrek the Third	P/DW	$53,039,992	16.4%	4,172	$12,713	$322,719,944	5/18/07
20	How the Grinch Stole Christmas	Uni.	$52,118,445	20.0%	3,134	$16,630	$260,044,825	11/17/00
21	Iron Man 2	Par.	$52,041,005	16.7%	4,390	$11,854	$312,433,331	5/7/10
22	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	$51,399,863	11.9%	3,023	$17,002	$431,088,295	5/19/99
23	Iron Man	Par.	$51,190,629	16.1%	4,111	$12,452	$318,412,101	5/2/08
24	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	NL	$50,598,104	13.4%	3,703	$13,664	$377,027,325	12/17/03
25	The Incredibles	BV	$50,251,359	19.2%	3,933	$12,776	$261,441,092	11/5/04

[DAJK]

Just awful for Mortdecai. I'm not trying to be a pessimist, but I was expecting at least 8M. This is going to end up in the same range as Blackhat, which is just awful. In 2015, you either achieve glory, or you die a quick death, there's no in between.