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Weekend 29th Dec 2011 - 2nd Jan 2012 (AU) - Animation Rules Christmas Break

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Animation Rules Christmas Break

by Jajang

No surprises what has led the box office since boxing day. An animated film has sat astride the top of the box office since then, but if you had asked only 3 months ago, I would not have picked the film that is currently on top. The Adventures of Tin Tin easily held the top spot over the new years weekend and has been on top since boxing day. Tin Tin made an impressive 2.9m over the long weekend, and has so far amassed 6.9m since it opeened on boxing day. In comparison to previous hits that opened at this time of the year, it does appear to be a little disappointing, but this is well in line with the expectations and possibly has outstripped the expectations of this film. Very simply there isn’t a standout film this year. The expectation going into this season before the US opening destroyed that hope was Happy Feet 2 would be able to replicate the success it saw only 4 years ago. Sadly, Happy Feet 2 did not meet up to those lofty expectations making only 2.2m over the long weekend and 4.7m since boxing day. I think in the end there was simply too much competition on top of a lacklustre marketing campaign which did not draw the families in like last time. Third over the weekend was the holder Mission Impossible 4 which continues to make great money with 2.1m. MI4 has made 12.5m and has already passed the third film in the series. It should be able to surpasse the first films total of 15m in the coming weeks. The real question is now, whether MI4 reach the 2nd films great total of 22m. I think it’s possible but the coming weeks will be very telling especially once Sherlock Holmes 2 opens.

The rest of the top 10 films are made up of a string of openers. Tower Heist, War Horse, We bought a Zoo, all opened to reasonable numbers but nothing really broke out. The Iron Lady opened very strongly in only 116 screens. Alvin 3 had only 1 day of play for the weekend as it opened on new years day which was the day it topped. Alvin should continue to play strongly but i doubt it will lead a single weekend again due this strategy of opening on the 1/1/2012 :P. At least for a short time it will be biggest grossing film of 2012 (there u go fox some free marketing this weekend... biggest film of 2012. :D ) Puss continued on its way though i was disappointed it dropped 8% over the weekend. Still it’s made it past 12m and should easily make it into the high teens. But that is where it ends for Puss as it will now fall short of the 20m mark with all the competition around it. New Years Eve did see it’s bump over the weekend as expected, but only 32% and it’s now made as much as will get. All is not lost though with over 9m in the till and it should easily have enough steam to pass 12m which isn’t all that far from Valentine’s Day final of 15m which is a lot better than other markets. As I’ve been saying for the past few weeks now, Breaking Dawn 1 is now locked to miss the 30m mark, something that most would have had this film easily passing prior to opening. It has frankly disappointed here in Australia and while 28m is nothing to sneeze at and it’s still a great result, it’s down on the expectations which a lot of films have suffered from this summer in Australia.

All dollars are in Australian Dollars.

TW

LW

Title

Rating

Weekend Gross

% Change

Screens

Per Screen Average

Total Gross

TI

1 - THE ADVENTURES OF TINITIN # PG $2,931,067 - 450 $6,513 $6,883,918 1
2 - HAPPY FEET 2 # G $2,209,630 - 265 $8,338 $4,671,429 1
3 1 MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: GHOST PROTOCOL M $2,169,662 25.0% 413 $5,253 $12,453,168 3
4 - TOWER HEIST # M $2,099,226 - 252 $8,330 $4,331,273 1
5 - WAR HORSE # M $1,957,306 - 236 $8,294 $3,967,583 1
6 - WE BOUGHT A ZOO # PG $1,536,715 - 234 $6,567 $3,447,365 1
7 - THE IRON LADY # M $1,485,984 - 116 $12,810 $3,488,263 1
8 - ALVIN AND THE CHIMPMUNKS: CHIPWRECKED ^^ G $1,230,321 - 265 $4,643 $1,594,391 1
9 2 PUSS IN BOOTS PG $1,119,126 -8.0% 493 $2,270 $12,944,221 4
10 3 NEW YEAR`S EVE M $943,303 32.0% 274 $3,443 $9,438,368 4
11 6 THE TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN - PART 1 M $200,368 -12.0% 97 $2,066 $28,260,929 7
12 10 THE WOMEN ON THE 6TH FLOOR PG $178,492 181.0% 25 $7,140 $987,327 3
13 9 THE IDES OF MARCH M $170,126 28.0% 49 $3,472 $4,029,813 6
14 7 DOLPHIN TALE PG $136,430 -40.0% 209 $653 $1,211,176 3
15 4 JACK AND JILL PG $121,320 -57.0% 107 $1,134 $5,568,124 5
16 5 DON 2 M $114,970 -57.0% 22 $5,226 $678,575 2
17 - ALBERT NOBBS # M $114,546 0.0% 28 $4,091 $201,661 1
18 8 THE INBETWEENERS MA15+ $113,389 -39.0% 90 $1,260 $8,932,284 6
19 - THE SKIN I LIVE IN # MA15+ $95,243 0.0% 21 $4,535 $221,913 1
20 11 MIDNIGHT IN PARIS PG $69,675 57.0% 20 $3,484 $7,051,399 11
Edited by Jajang

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Prediction - Weekend 5th - 8th January 2012

Two weekends after Sherlock Holmes 2 opened to disappointing numbers in the US, we finally get that film here. However, Sherlock here has a little room to breathe given Mission Impossible 4 which opened the next weekend in the US while here it opened some weeks back and has already made a reasonable 12m to date. In 2009 up against the juggernaught that was Avatar, Sherlock Holmes managed to open with a very strong 3.7m over only 2 days of play (boxing day fell on the Sunday that year) and managed to make a final total of 26m in the shadow of the monster that Avatar was. In fact on the new years weekend SH managed to make 4.7m and had amassed 12m by that point. Given how well that film was received you would think this should indicate a big opening for SH2. Then we need to take into account the recent disappointment of the opening weekend in the US. Given we aren't really seeing the slump that has been seen in the US market here, i think the opening should still be very strong. In fact this weekend is often known for a largish opening (I am Legend's 9m comes to mind for example) meaning if the audience is there for a film it will open well during this school holidays (remember school holidays are still in effect at the moment and will remain until near the end of the month).

Also opening for it's first FULL weekend is Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked. We already have an idea on how well this film will travel given it's already had 2 days of play managing a reasonable 1.5m so far. Compared to the second film it is already down substantially as was expected after the recent opening in the US also disappointed. Still Alvin should be able to pull in a reasonable opening this weekend and see a good uptick from it's opening 2 days.

Top 5 Predictions -

1 (N) Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - 4.5m / 4.5m (16m+)

2 (8) Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - 2.5m / 5.0m (13m - 14m)

3 (1) The Aventures of the Tin Tin - 1.7m / 9.2m (15m+)

4 (3) Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol - 1.4m / 14.4m (20m+)

5 (5) War Horse - 1.3m / 5.6m (8m+ - unless it gets an oscar boost)

Anything less than 3m for Sherlock would be a outright failure here. Alvin on the other hand should happy with 2m+.

- jajang

Edited by Jajang

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Due to the hot weather in Melbourne the last 2 days, yesterday was busier then any single day from last year. Today was also really busy, with both days having Alvin improve on the 1st by about 50-70%. So at least in Melbourne, great numbers for Alvin!

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