2017 & Beyond Discussion Thread | Is 2017 (Summer) Bigger than 2016?

[JennaJ]

2 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I think at this point a year ago Independence Day, X-men, BFG, and Ice Age would've been evidence of a "huge" 2016

 

Nah, ID looked like a bomb from the start to me, as soon as I knew Will Smith wasn't coming back. Also Ice Age, really? That series has been on a long long decline.

[ChipDerby]

Just general numbers:

 

Episode 8 - 675-800M

Spiderman - 225-350M

DM3 - 275-350M

Coco - 250-325M

Guardians - 300-375M

LegoBat- 260-340M

Fast8 - 250-325M

JL - 325-450M

Dunkirk - 150-275M

Wonder Woman - 250-350M

Thor 3 - 200-250M

BatB- 300-450M

WWZ2- 125-225M

TF5- 200-300M

Alien- 125-200M

Pirates5- 200-250M

Kong- 175-275M

Cars3- 150-200M

Croods2- 150-200M

 

4 $300 mil locks, imo. Could be up to 10, though.

Edited July 26, 2016 by ChipMunky

[The Futurist]

There are so many tentpoles these days that lots of them are bound to crash at the bo, people s wallets are not extensive.

[AniNate]

3 minutes ago, JennaJ said:

 

Nah, ID looked like a bomb from the start to me, as soon as I knew Will Smith wasn't coming back. Also Ice Age, really? That series has been on a long long decline.

 

Well, here we are with people expecting Cars and Pirates to be big hits

[The Futurist]

Cars and Pirates can rebound if quality is there, lots of people love these franchises.

 

 

[James]

GotG will be huge methinks. Around 350m.

BatB broke SW's record for the biggest debut for a trailer. It will be massive. It will beat TJB. 

Spidey will do better than TASM and possibly go for 300m (I don;t get people overpredicting this. just why?).

Justice League will likely end up somewhere in the 350-400m area. Never doubt Warner's marketing.

Wonder Woman is making huge huge numbers with it's first trailer. 300m should happen, even with the big competition.

SW8 will end up around 700m. I don't see it beating Avatar.

Fast 8 won't touch 300m (the only reason why the last one made what it made was because of Paul's death).

DM3 will make make a bit over 300m.

Thor 3 won't hit 300m I think. I don't really know.

Dunkirk might have a run at 200m if it's great.

Lego Batman maybe around 300m. Either way, it will be huge.

And I think King Arthur will surprise and get around 150-200m, but just because I am ABSOLUTELY SURE Warner will move it from that slot and possible put it in April. 

 

 

[superweirdo87]

It is also harder for them to stand out when there are so many...event fatigue.

[NCsoft]

2 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Alright, looking at these lists and seeing some movies I honestly forgotten about, 2017 will be A LOT bigger than 2016.

 

In addition to Episode VIII, Guardians Vol. 2, Spider-man Homecoming, Wonder Woman, Justice League, Fast 8, Beauty and the Beast, LEGO Batman, Despicable Me 3 and Transformers 5 there's stuff like Kong, Ghost in the Shell, Pirates 5, World War Zzz, The Mummy, Cars 3, Coco, War of the Planet of the Apes, Thor 3, Blade Runner, Alien: Covenant, Dunkirk, Jumanji, Kingsman 2, Bad Boy 3 and Pitch Perfect 3. Yeah... It's gonna be MUCH bigger.

 

I Feel exactly the opposite, seems like an rather uninspiring sequels kind of a year, I think it will decline from this year in terms of yearly domestic total.

[mahnamahna]

19 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I think at this point a year ago Independence Day, X-men, BFG, and Ice Age would've been evidence of a "huge" 2016

BFG and Ice Age 5 never looked that big. 

 

I do agree on IDR and X-Men, though. If they had done $190-220 million DOM each, this summer would be seen as fairly solid. 

[AniNate]

I'm excited for Lego, Dunkirk, Guardians, Coco and Star Wars. Rest of the tentpole slate looks like a swath of mediocrity 

Edited July 26, 2016 by tribefan695

[mahnamahna]

14 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

My yearly top 10 prediction atm:

 

1. Episode VIII - $775m

2. Spider-Man Homecoming - $415m

3. Beauty and the Beast - $400m

4. The LEGO Batman Movie - $375m

5. Despicable Me 3 - $345m

6. Fast 8 - $310m

7. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - $305m

8. Coco - $300m

9. Wonder Woman - $300m

10. Justice League - $275m

 

Would love to throw Uncharted in there as the big breakout of the year, but past video game adaptations make that pretty hard to put confidence in. Still, it has by far the most blockbuster potential of any video game adaptation ever if done right. 

 

Pretty close to mine, actually. I do think GotG2 will increase since there's really nothing during the month of May other than POTC5 (thinking $160-180 million DOM). 

1. Star Wars Episode VIII: $720 million 
2. Beauty and the Beast: $430 million
3. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $420 million 
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $355 million 
5. The LEGO Batman Movie: $345 million 
6. Despicable Me 3: $310 million
7. Fast 8: $295 million 
8. Coco: $285 million 
9. Wonder Woman: $275 million 
10. Thor - Ragnorak: $260 million 
11. Justice League: $245 million 
12. Kong - Skull Island: $215 million 
13. Dunkirk: $210 million
14. War of the Planet of the Apes: $205 million 
15. Transformers - The Last Knight: $200 million 

[MovieMan89]

6 hours ago, nilephelan said:

All of these low predictions for Guardians 2 are going to be way off.  That movie is opening to $140m+ and will do $350m+ at a minimum.  

Most people thought Iron Man 2 was "locked" to increase also. The fact of the matter is that everytime a first CBM has hit 300+, the sequel has decreased. IM3 remains the only CBM to increase from a predecessor that made 300+, and we all know why that was. 

 

Anymore quality seems to be less and less relevant to CBM multis, especially the sequels. When you have Civil War scoring one of the highest tomatometers ever for a CBM and barely scraping past a 2.2x multi, nothing above a 2.4-2.5x multi can be assumed for the big openers in the genre anymore. So it's going to need an OW of at least your 140 prediction to really have a shot at beating the first. And I'd say that's on the high end of what we should be expecting on OW. IM1 opened similarly to GotG, and likewise I'd expect a similar OW to IM2 for GotG 2 (130ish). Granted, I don't think as high as 350 is impossible or anything, but a betting man wouldn't count on an increase. 

Edited July 26, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Kvikk Lunsj]

1 hour ago, tribefan695 said:

I'm excited for Lego, Dunkirk, Guardians, Coco and Star Wars. Rest of the tentpole slate looks like a swath of mediocrity 

Nice list

mine 

Lego Batman 

Beauty and Beast 

kong 

GotG

Apes

Dunkirk

Alien 5 

Coco 

star wars

 

Edited July 26, 2016 by Dexter of Suburbia

[JohnnyGossamer]

Looking forward to Okja and Valerian in 2017 more than anything else. But, the blockbuster slate looks fun enough I suppose. Guardains Vol. 2, Fast 8 and Blade Runner would be the three that jump out at me.

[JennaJ]

55 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Most people thought Iron Man 2 was "locked" to increase also. The fact of the matter is that everytime a first CBM has hit 300+, the sequel has decreased. IM3 remains the only CBM to increase from a predecessor that made 300+, and we all know why that was. 

 

Anymore quality seems to be less and less relevant to CBM multis, especially the sequels. When you have Civil War scoring one of the highest tomatometers ever for a CBM and barely scraping past a 2.2x multi, nothing above a 2.4-2.5x multi can be assumed for the big openers in the genre anymore. So it's going to need an OW of at least your 140 prediction to really have a shot at beating the first. And I'd say that's on the high end of what we should be expecting on OW. IM1 opened similarly to GotG, and likewise I'd expect a similar OW to IM2 for GotG 2 (130ish). Granted, I don't think as high as 350 is impossible or anything, but a betting man wouldn't count on an increase. 

 

You keep equating it to Iron Man 2, which saw a steep decline in quality compared to Iron Man and still almost equaled its BO.

If GotG 2 disappoints quality wise like IM2 did, naturally it will decline, but I'm betting on that not being the case.

 

As for your assertion that quality doesn't matter for CBM multis, I disagree.

I think CW didn't have a better multi because it relied on the audience familiarity with at least 4 previous films, if not the entire MCU catalog, in order to know what's going on.

In order to enjoy GotG Vol. 2, all you need to have seen is GotG. That's a lot less demanding of the audience.

 

Edited July 26, 2016 by JennaJ

[Kalo]

Spider-Man is being overpredicted. anything over $300m would be a massive win for the movie imo.

 

1.Star Wars Episode VIII $700,000,000 (TFA was a once in a lifetime gross, there is no way EP VIII will touch $900m, it may be a better film though)

2.Beauty and the Beast $415,000,000 

3.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 $355,000,000 (this one is hard to predict, I don't think it will hit Civil War numbers, and because GOTG overperformed so much, I wouldn't be surprised if it declined from it to be honest, however, it has a prime may release with little competition and the advantage of being one of the first SH films of the year)

4.Lego Batman $340,0000,000

5.Spider-Man: Homecoming $315,0000,000 (Civil War, the fresh take and Spidey back with marvel will help, but it's still releasing only 3 years after TAMS2, and is the 6th Spider-Man film in the last 20 years)

6.Wonder Woman $300,000,000 (if this is as great as it looks it will blow up and be massive)

7.Despicable Me 3 $290,000,000 (big drop from DM2, and a drop from Minions, still will be massive though)

8.Fast 8 $270,000,000 (massive drop from F7, Paul Walker is the reason it was such a  massive hit)

9.Justice League $255,000,000 (even if BvS was better received, considering it already had Batman, Wonder Woman and Superman in it, I don't see the novelty appeal to this film, and it's lackluster reception, even if this is better. means it is all but guaranteed to fall from BvS, it's also the last of 8 (maybe 9) superheros films to released that year, some fatigue is going to be there)

10.Coco $250m (it's story seems to niche to break out as big as IS, and Zootopia)

11.Thor: Ragnarok $230,000,000  

12.Dunkirk $215m (an adult blockbuster in an industry that is increasingly absent of them, if it's great it should be big) 

13.War of the Planet of the Apes $205,000,000 

14.Kong: Skull Island $200,000,000

15.Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $190,000,000

16.The Mummy $175,000,000 

17.Transformers: The Last Knight $170,000,000

18.Ninjago $165,000,000

19.Baywatch $160,000,000

20.The Croods 2 $155,000,000

21.Alien: Covenant $150,000,000

22.Cars 3 $145,000,000

23.King Arthur $140,000,000

24.Kingsman: The Golden Circle $135,000,000

25.Barbie $120,000,000

[ProtoMan]

This is where I'm at with 2017:

 

1. Star Wars Episode VIII – 700M

2. Beauty and the Beast – 400M

3. Guardians – 360M

4. Spider-Man – 350M

5. Justice League – 315M

6. Despicable Me 3 – 310M

7. Lego Batman – 275M

8. Wonder Woman – 255M

9. Thor – 250M

10. Fast and Furious 8 – 240M

 

* Star Wars will begin its drop to the standard huge blockbuster level (400-500M) but it has around 2-3 films left before it hits that level.

 

* People seemed to be blown away with the Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Spider-Man footage. Both movies should be in contention for the highest grossing CBM in 2017. If the Baby Groot thing takes off, I wouldn't surprise me Guardians really take off close to 400M. 

 

* I'm not as high as others on Wonder Woman but a 200M+ gross would be great for it.

Edited July 26, 2016 by ProtoMan

[cannastop]

My shitty list:

 

1. Star Wars VIII: $650m
2. Guardians of the Galaxy 2: $385m
3. Beauty and the Beast: $360m
4. Spider-Man Homecoming: $350m
5. Justice League: $305m
6. Kong Skull Island: $300m
7. Lego Batman: $290m
8. Wonder Woman: $285m
9. Despicable Me 3: $280
10. Coco: $250m
11. Fast 8: $240m

[The Futurist]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Most people thought Iron Man 2 was "locked" to increase also. The fact of the matter is that everytime a first CBM has hit 300+, the sequel has decreased. IM3 remains the only CBM to increase from a predecessor that made 300+, and we all know why that was. 

 

Anymore quality seems to be less and less relevant to CBM multis, especially the sequels. When you have Civil War scoring one of the highest tomatometers ever for a CBM and barely scraping past a 2.2x multi, nothing above a 2.4-2.5x multi can be assumed for the big openers in the genre anymore. So it's going to need an OW of at least your 140 prediction to really have a shot at beating the first. And I'd say that's on the high end of what we should be expecting on OW. IM1 opened similarly to GotG, and likewise I'd expect a similar OW to IM2 for GotG 2 (130ish). Granted, I don't think as high as 350 is impossible or anything, but a betting man wouldn't count on an increase. 

 

James Gunn doesn't consider Guardians of the Galaxy to be a superhero movie.

 

And I don't either.

 

 

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, The Futurist said:

Cars and Pirates can rebound if quality is there, lots of people love these franchises.

 

 

Lmao no one is a big fan of Cars outside of 3-8 year old boys, and that audience can only carry a movie so far as Cars 2 found out. Pirates would have to be near CotBP quality to increase over OST at this point. The franchise and Depp's career are completely buried DOM at the moment.