2017 & Beyond Discussion Thread | Is 2017 (Summer) Bigger than 2016?

[ChipDerby]

38 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

James Gunn doesn't consider Guardians of the Galaxy to be a superhero movie.

 

And I don't either.

 

 

 

He didn't mention superhero movies in that post.

[cannastop]

Anyone want to speculate about 2018?

[DAJK]

55 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Anyone want to speculate about 2018?

Thoughts on both years:

 

2017: January - Monster Trucks, XxX, and Resident Evil all doing sub 30M total. Men's and Live By Night will occupy most of the January box office and both do 100M+. Friday the 13th will have a decent opening but still fail to get much past 50M. Split and The Founder will do 40-65M.

 

February - Fifty Shades barely gets past 100M, John Wick is over predicted and does 20/55M. LEGO Batman also over predicted but still does 75/250. Dark Tower opens to 45M+, God Particle (or whatever it ends up being) also opens to 20M+. The Great Wall bombs domestically (80M or so) but makes over 600M WW.

 

March - Wolverine 3 out grosses 2013's Wolvie, but not Origins. Kong and Beast both do 100M+ opening, and the latter finishes with 330+ (Kong around 250). Boss Baby does Mr. Peabody numbers. Out of King Arthur and Power Rangers, one of them surprises and does 100M+ and the other bombs miserable and does sub 40M.

 

April - Fast 8 does 270M. Smurfs does 75. Nothing else passes 50. Ghost in the shell collapses quickly but still does 90M

 

May - GOTG is the Pirates 2 of the series and does 400M. Barbie 110M, Pirates 220M, Baywatch 145M. 

 

June - Wonder Woman 90/240. Mummy 70/180. Cars 50/150. Transformers 80/200. Kingsman surprise of the month with 65/180.

 

July - Spider-Man just misses 300M. Apes decreases. Dunkirk beats interstellar, Ferdinand is another Ice Age 5, Valerian is another Tarzan (does fine but too big of a budget). Jumanji does good, Central Intelligence numbers.

 

August - Alien and Emoji BOTH do 200M+, nothing else touches 60M.

 

September - Equalizer decreases, It doesn't make it to 40M, Ninjago does Angry Birds #'s.

 

October - My Little Pony is extremely front loaded. Blade Runner 35/100. Geostorm does Total Recall numbers, Insidious 4 does Insidious 3 numbers and Saw does 30/65.

 

November - Thor 3 barely increases from part 2, Justice League outgrosses BvS barely145/340. Coco 75/240. Let It Snow opens low (15M) but legs it to 60M.

 

December - PP3 32/110, Croods 28/120. VIII 230/760.

 

 

2018:

Jan-Apr - Maze Runner does 28/70 but 300WW. Pacific Rim actually increases both domestically and worldwide 125/450. Black Panther plays similar to Thor 2 80/210. Tomb Raider does Warcraft numbers, Ready Player One is a major hit 75/280. Wreck It Ralph stays flat.

 

May-July - Avengers 160/400. Han Solo 180/550 (although I bet it moves). Dragon still slightly decreases from part 2, 50/150. Transformers 70/160. Jurassic World 150/420. Toy Story 105/380. Ant-Man increases 65/200.

 

Sept-Dec - Hotel 3 in between first and second film. Scooby Doo does 60/180. Jungle Book 60/150. Spider-Man does 175M. Grinch does 300M.

 

 

These of course don't take into account a lot of release date changes I'm expecting.

 

 

[cookie]

Expecting Guardians to at least stay flat thanks to goodwill from the first. Increase will depend on marketing and WOM.

 

Fifty Shades, Fast 8, Pirates, Despicable Me, Transformers all see noticeable declines, some more than others.

 

Kong and Beauty & The Beast will dominate March and everything else with the exception of Wolverine will be crushed under them. Out of the two Beast will have bigger opening and better legs.

 

Kingsman pulls a Jump Street and surprises.

 

Spider-Man will lead July with $300m and Apes comes second with over $200m but no more than $250m. Dunkirk will do somewhat better than Interstellar, $200m.

 

Justice League will open less than BvS, but holiday legs will make its gross about even.

 

Episode VIII will decrease from Force Awakens, but OW will be in the same range.

 

Bad Boys 3, World War Z 2 and Uncharted will not make their release dates.

 

 

Edited July 27, 2016 by cookie

[AniNate]

So far the first six months look like a wash compared to this year. I give January, April and May to 2016 but February, March and June to 2017

[cannastop]

49 minutes ago, DAJK said:

August 2018 - Alien and Emoji BOTH do 200M+

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

16 minutes ago, cookie said:

Expecting Guardians to at least stay flat thanks to goodwill from the first. Increase will depend on marketing and WOM.

 

Fifty Shades, Fast 8, Pirates, Despicable Me, Transformers all see noticeable declines, some more than others.

 

Kong and Beauty & The Beast will dominate March and everything else with the exception of Wolverine will be crushed under them. Out of the two Beast will have bigger opening and better legs.

 

Kingsman pulls a Jump Street and surprises.

 

Spider-Man will lead July with $300m and Apes comes second with over $200m but no more than $250m. Dunkirk will do somewhat better than Interstellar, $200m.

 

Justice League will open less than BvS, but holiday legs will make its gross about even.

 

Episode VIII will decrease from Force Awakens, but OW will be in the same range.

 

Bad Boys 3, World War Z 2 and Uncharted will not make their release dates.

 

 

Spot on 100%

[EmpireCity]

5 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Most people thought Iron Man 2 was "locked" to increase also. The fact of the matter is that everytime a first CBM has hit 300+, the sequel has decreased. IM3 remains the only CBM to increase from a predecessor that made 300+, and we all know why that was. 

 

Anymore quality seems to be less and less relevant to CBM multis, especially the sequels. When you have Civil War scoring one of the highest tomatometers ever for a CBM and barely scraping past a 2.2x multi, nothing above a 2.4-2.5x multi can be assumed for the big openers in the genre anymore. So it's going to need an OW of at least your 140 prediction to really have a shot at beating the first. And I'd say that's on the high end of what we should be expecting on OW. IM1 opened similarly to GotG, and likewise I'd expect a similar OW to IM2 for GotG 2 (130ish). Granted, I don't think as high as 350 is impossible or anything, but a betting man wouldn't count on an increase. 

 

Apples and Oranges.  

 

If you look at next May, it is really weak competition.  Nothing but animated/horror/comedy and zero tent pole movies until the almost dead in the water Pirates 5.  Guardians 2 should have a free run until Wonder Woman comes out. 

 

Chris Pratt has also turned himself into a legit movie star and box office draw.  He has a hot streak going with Lego Movie/Guardians/Jurassic World/Magnificent Seven.  The only thing that might slow it down even a little is Passengers if they are having trouble finishing the effects.  You put any number of other actors in Guardians or Jurassic World and it doesn't come close to the same numbers.  

 

Guardians 2 is going to hit $350m without breaking a sweat.  It also benefits from being a second sequel, family friendly and a fun movie.  It has a lot fewer drawbacks going for it compared to Civil War if that makes sense.  

 

This of course is all contingent on the movie being the same quality or better than Guardians.  If it is a flaming turd like Iron Man 2, then of course that is going to have an effect.  

[Jonwo]

I wonder if WB will be ballsy enough to move Wonder Woman to Memorial Day weekend or if they'll stay put. I know Memorial Day has been a bit of a dud in the last few years but a strong tentpole like WW would do high numbers and I think Disney after being burnt by Alice would move Pirates.

 

I don't know if Lego Batman will do higher numbers than The Lego Movie, I reckon it'll be in the same range or slightly lower given its a spin-off but it dependent on reviews and luckily there is no kids competition until Beauty and the Beast and Boss Baby. 

 

I reckon Scooby Doo will move to September or October 2019, I think releasing the new film in time for Scooby's 50th anniversary could give it a boost and WB and its siblings could do various promotion throughout 2019

[Durden]

1. Star Wars VIII - 740m

2. Beauty and the Beast - 410m

3. Guardians of The Galaxy Vol. 2 - 390m

4. Despicable Me 3 - 315m

5. Spider-Man: Homecoming - 310m

6. Coco - 300m

7. Fast 8 - 295m

8. Justice League - 290m

9. Wonder Woman - 260m

10. Thor: Ragnarok - 250m

 

Others +200m: Skull Island, Apes 3 and Transformers 5.

[Arlborn]

I see the whole of 2017 behaving similarly to 2016: Too many would-be blockbusters all over and many of them being sequels. There will be some huge sized hits spread out through the year, with a couple of them being "unexpected" breakouts and a whole lot of 100-150m grosses that will barely make much profit because of the big budgets and then we'll have a couple of big bombs IDR style, most likely sequels. Then there's Star Wars and we'll all end the year smiling cause of that.

 

 

To those complaining about the perceived quality of next year's slate: I'm pretty much excited for at least 90% of those tent-poles. Quite a few of them will, inevitably, end up disappointing me to various degrees but thank fuck I'm not a cynical bastard and can still get excited about this kind of stuff.

[AniNate]

I prefer to be pleasantly surprised by the final product. There's a few I'm excited for because of their pedigree but I don't have any inherent interest in the umpteenth Wolverine or King Kong movie

Edited July 27, 2016 by tribefan695

[MinaTakla]

Despicable Me 3 will be greatly helped by its great DOM release date. Its first 10-day gross will have 7 holidays out of 10 days, so that will give it a strong push ahead. Its first 8 days it will be the only new release then along with Spiderman there will be no big tentpoles until July 14 with Apes which may not impact both movies much. So the first comp will be on July 21 (again with Ferdinand not being that strong). So that gives DM3 and Spiderman almost 3-4 weeks of strong play. That's why I think both DM3 and Spidey will cross 300m with relative ease.

Edited July 27, 2016 by MinaTakla

[MovieMan89]

DM3 has the potential to be Illumination's highest grosser yet if it's well received. There are zero mass appealing family films next summer. Cars 3 isn't even locked for 150 and Ferdinand and Captain Underpants aren't even locks for 100. The competition is ridiculously weak, allowing DM3 to basically rule the summer among families. And keep in mind said films are bringing in north of $1.2b in gross this summer alone, so it's a massive market to serve. 

[MinaTakla]

32 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

DM3 has the potential to be Illumination's highest grosser yet if it's well received. There are zero mass appealing family films next summer. Cars 3 isn't even locked for 150 and Ferdinand and Captain Underpants aren't even locks for 100. The competition is ridiculously weak, allowing DM3 to basically rule the summer among families. And keep in mind said films are bringing in north of $1.2b in gross this summer alone, so it's a massive market to serve. 

This.

I also think Meledandri is now concious of quality, and SING will surprise many of us here. It's heading to TIFF when virtually no one thought so. It will be the company's first ever festival selection.

DM3 could be heading in the good direction if they are taking quality into mind. Who knows, maybe this goes to Cannes just like Panda and Dragon and Little Prince. DM2 was going to Cannes btw but they declined. I also think Illumination's films are always underestimated here.

Many thought Minions will end up in the 250m range cuz it's a spinoff.

Anyone thought Pets would do more or same as Minions? Or way more than DM1?

Even DM2 wasn't expected to cross 300m if I remember correctly.

Edited July 27, 2016 by MinaTakla

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, MinaTakla said:

This.

I also think Meledandri is now concious of quality, and SING will surprise many of us here. It's heading to TIFF when virtually no one thought so.

DM3 could be heading in the good direction if they are taking quality into mind. I also think Illumination's films are always underestimated here.

Many thought Minions will end up in the 250m range cuz it's a spinoff.

Anyone thought Pets would do more or same as Minions? Or even more than DM1?

Even DM3 wasn't expected to cross 300m if I remember correctly.

You're dead on about Illumination films being underestimated on this forum. It goes all the way back to The Lorax. I swear, I've had to argue in circles with a lot of people about why the film will do huge numbers with every single Illumination release. 

[MinaTakla]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

You're dead on about Illumination films being underestimated on this forum. It goes all the way back to The Lorax. I swear, I've had to argue in circles with a lot of people about why the film will do huge numbers with every single Illumination release. 

I think Pets made many people (mainly outside the forum but also some here) re-think Illumination's realistic position in the market, at least domestically. They are proven commercially and if SING turns out very good to great, this will help the Illumination brand be seen as something more than just sugar rush (which is very fine too because we don't need 2 Pixars). 

 

[AniNate]

I think the naysayers were right to an extent with Minions. It was huge but word-of-mouth sunk it to less than DM2's total even though it opened much bigger. 

 

Pets, yeah, I underestimated it. And I'd do it again for a similar-looking film. We'll see what happens with Sing but I want an Illumination film to actually earn its hype at some point.

[MovieMan89]

The general predictions for The Lorax around here were 150ish and the general predictions for every subsequent Illumination release were right around DM1's 250m. The reason I remember this is because in all 4 cases I was one of the few arguing significantly higher numbers. So this board has always lowballed them in the past. 

[AniNate]

I'll give them that they may just have the best animated film of the summer next year