2017 & Beyond Discussion Thread | Is 2017 (Summer) Bigger than 2016?

[James]

2 minutes ago, Kalo said:

Early 2018 predictions:
 

Avatar 2 $520,000,000 (if it releases in 2018)

The Avengers: Infinity War Part 1 $500,000,000

Jurassic World 2 $420,000,000

Han Solo $380,000,000

Toy Story 4 $350,000,000

Deadpool 2 $330,000,000

Ready Player One $300,000,000

Black Panther $285,000,000

How the Grinch Stole Christmas $260,000,000

Gigantic $250,000,000

Mary Poppins Returns $250,000,000

Ant-Man and the Wasp $200,000,000

Wreck-it Ralph 2 $190,000,000

Animated Spider-Man $180,000,000

Jungle Book: Origins $175,000,000

How to Train Your Dragon 3 $170,000,000

Tomb Raider $160,000,000

Peter Rabbit $150,000,000

Transformers 6 $145,000,000

 

 

There are some things up in the air about what DC films will release this year (2018), they had The Flash set at March 2018.  but that release date was removed from BOM. but is still shown as being released in march on IMDB. but BOM also added a release date for a film in October, which is the prime release for Ben Affleck films, I have a feeling Batman could be ready for release by then as well.

 

So I'll just predict all three of them, but I'm pretty sure at least one of them will be released in 2019.

The Batman $400,000,000

Aquaman $200,000,000

The Flash $200,000,000

 

There is also 3 untitled Disney Live action fairy tales set for release in 2018. I'm thinking they could be Maleficent 2, Dumbo, and possibly The Nutcracker, the Genie film is also possible though. or maybe A Wrinkle in Time. 

 

Dumbo $250,000,000

The Nutcracker $225,000,000

Maleficent 2 $190,000,000

So you think Fantastic Beasts 2 is going under 145m?

[Kalo]

44 minutes ago, James said:

So you think Fantastic Beasts 2 is going under 145m?

 

No, I completely overlooked it to be honest. Should do around $200-$250m. maybe $300m if the first one is really well recieved. 

[Arlborn]

9 hours ago, NCsoft said:

If Ready Player one, Battle Angel Alita, and Avatar 2 all make it in 2018 (as scheduling seem to indicate right now), that would be a very fascinating Sci-Fi year.

You're forgetting Valerian. That has loads of potential!

[AniNate]

Disney currently has an "Untitled Fairy Tale" set for July next year. I'd guess that's going to be Wrinkle in Time but I don't imagine it'll be ready by then. Probably will get pushed to early-mid fall at least.

[NCsoft]

2 hours ago, Arlborn said:

You're forgetting Valerian. That has loads of potential!

Yes, looking forward to Valerian, it is a 2017 title however, so its coming sooner than the movies I listed.

[Arlborn]

26 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Yes, looking forward to Valerian, it is a 2017 title however, so its coming sooner than the movies I listed.

I totally didn't realize you were talking about 2018, my bad lol

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, Arlborn said:

I totally didn't realize you were talking about 2018, my bad lol

2017 looks pretty promising too for sci-fi type movies now that I think about it.

We have Valerian, we will get Alex Garland's Annihilation, we'll get the blade runner sequel, and Alien Covenant.And of course there's always EP8.

 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

On ‎2016‎-‎07‎-‎27 at 6:32 PM, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

No, it's not. Minions only did less than DM2 because it sucked. And it still legged itself up to 300M+ off a 110M+ OW. If DM3 is anything closer to either of the main entries' quality than Minions, it'll not crumble the same way.

 

Coco is certainly a threat if gets such reception, but right now, I don't see anymore than a 250M ceiling for it. Plus, the last time that Pixar had a 2nd movie in one year coming out on the Fall/Holiday season, it was The Good Dinosaur. Don't forget that.

This, pretty much.

 

Also, people need to keep in mind that Illumination/Universal is very good at marketing their animated films.....and also now, Pets is getting closer to $300M DOM. Despicable Me 3 can comfortly get to the $300M-mark.......(higher if it's a better movie than Minions and close to the first two's receptions.) WW-wise.....it could be the second Illumination film to get over the $1B-mark.

[AniNate]

I know they're good at marketing. But at some point, hopefully sooner rather than later, audiences will wise up a bit like they usually do with mediocre franchises. Right now I don't have any reason to expect the franchise will miraculously improve 

[MinaTakla]

I love the DM franchise. I don't think it's a bad franchise at all. In fact, I think it's way better than several other animated franchises.

Here's hoping DM3 is great - and the first signs signal to it focusing on Gru a lot (though I love the minions too :P) - so am quite optimistic this is going to do very well. Its release date is excellent, 7 holidays out of 10 first days so the 10-day gross should be very good. Since it doesn't have much animated competition, it should help it a lot both dom and ww.

 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

1 hour ago, tribefan695 said:

I know they're good at marketing. But at some point, hopefully sooner rather than later, audiences will wise up a bit like they usually do with mediocre franchises. Right now I don't have any reason to expect the franchise will miraculously improve 

 

You mean like they did with "Ice Age"-franchise? Granted...that was already going down in terms of box-office. 

 

Also, what do you mean "hopefully"? Just to wish that your Pixar-films will have more room to increase more than an Illumination-films? 

 

Now i may be a Pixar-fan and i am glad that Finding Dory is the #1 animated grosser DOM-wise.....but i don't only wish Pixar-films to succeed more than anything Non-Pixar.

 

And please....i know you're a huge Pixar-fanboy....but don't try to wishfully think that an Illumination-film has to underperform just to leave the #1 grosser to Pixar...yet again.

 

And not many people is gonna care about Cars 3.....so DM3 will be safe.

[AniNate]

Oh,  I hope Cars 3 bombs even worse. I don't care so much about Pixar beating it, I just don't think it ought to continue to be pulling $300+ mil at its current creative pace

Edited July 29, 2016 by tribefan695

[Jonwo]

Doesn't Blue Sky have Ferdinand coming in July? I don't think it'll be a huge grosser but it's family competition and likewise Jumanji at the end of July. 

 

 

[MCKillswitch123]

Just for the hell of it, my attempt at predicting the comic book movies next year (assuming the unannounced Fox spot is Gambit):

 

Lego Batman: 103M OW/325M DOM/780M WW

Old Man Logan: 62M OW/160M DOM/440M WW

GOTG Vol. 2: 140M OW/400M DOM/1.1B WW

Wonder Woman: 125M OW/290M DOM/720M WW
Kingsman 2: 58M OW/180M DOM/520M WW

SM Homecoming: 130M OW/300M DOM/950M WW

Gambit: 35M OW/100M DOM/310M WW

Thor 3: 95M OW/225M DOM/670M WW

Justice League: 150M OW/350M DOM/950M WW

[cannastop]

On 7/27/2016 at 0:32 PM, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

No, it's not. Minions only did less than DM2 because it sucked. And it still legged itself up to 300M+ off a 110M+ OW. If DM3 is anything closer to either of the main entries' quality than Minions, it'll not crumble the same way.

 

Coco is certainly a threat if gets such reception, but right now, I don't see anymore than a 250M ceiling for it. Plus, the last time that Pixar had a 2nd movie in one year coming out on the Fall/Holiday season, it was The Good Dinosaur. Don't forget that.

The only reason there was two movies in 2015 was because The Good Dinosaur had a troubled production. Coco seems to be working just fine, and Star Wars VIII isn't going to crush everything like TFA did.

[Eric Duncan]

http://deadline.com/2016/09/summer-box-office-cooled-2016-could-be-colder-2017-1201812031/

 

Deadline had analyst Doug Creutz talk about this summer and next summer, but here are the highlights:

 

-Rumors are that around 26 movies will get 2,500+ theaters for their OWs next year, below 2016, but above the historical average

-A lot of money losers will be on the schedule, since the number of action and animation films is at 17, much higher than the guideline rule of 9 action and animation movies being successful

-Disney's at medium risk, with GOTG 2 being big, but Cars 3 and Pirates 5 potentially decreasing from their predecessors

-Fox is at medium-high risk, as Captain Underpants will face big competition with Cars and Despicable Me, and Kingsman will face a ton of competition that could limit its potential

-Paramount's at low-medium risk, because WWZ2 and Transformers 5 are expected to do "reasonably well", but Baywatch could overperform due to it being a comedy alternative.

-Warner Bros. is at medium risk, as it has Wonder Woman, Dunkirk, Annabelle 2, and The House, but none of these are guaranteed to be in the summer's top 12, though Wonder Woman could break out.

-Nothing was said for Universal or Sony for some reason.

[RobinHood26]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

http://deadline.com/2016/09/summer-box-office-cooled-2016-could-be-colder-2017-1201812031/

 

Deadline had analyst Doug Creutz talk about this summer and next summer, but here are the highlights:

 

-Rumors are that around 26 movies will get 2,500+ theaters for their OWs next year, below 2016, but above the historical average

-A lot of money losers will be on the schedule, since the number of action and animation films is at 17, much higher than the guideline rule of 9 action and animation movies being successful

-Disney's at medium risk, with GOTG 2 being big, but Cars 3 and Pirates 5 potentially decreasing from their predecessors

-Fox is at medium-high risk, as Captain Underpants will face big competition with Cars and Despicable Me, and Kingsman will face a ton of competition that could limit its potential

-Paramount's at low-medium risk, because WWZ2 and Transformers 5 are expected to do "reasonably well", but Baywatch could overperform due to it being a comedy alternative.

-Warner Bros. is at medium risk, as it has Wonder Woman, Dunkirk, Annabelle 2, and The House, but none of these are guaranteed to be in the summer's top 12, though Wonder Woman could break out.

-Nothing was said for Universal or Sony for some reason.

 

He's a pretty shitty analyst if he thinks World War Z 2 is coming out next year 

[MCKillswitch123]

I just noticed that there are, as of right now, FIFTEEN animated films scheduled for 2018:

• The Croods 2 (Jan. 5)
• Gnomeo & Juliet 2 (Jan. 12)
• Early Man [Aardman] (Jan. 21)
• Smallfoot [WB] (President's Day Weekend)
• Larrikins [DW] (Feb. 16)
• Wreck-It Ralph 2 (March 9)
• Peter Rabbit [Sony] (March 23)
• How To Train Your Dragon 3 (May 18)
• Toy Story 4 (June 15)
• The Secret Life Of Pets 2 (July 13)
• SCOOB (Sep. 21)
• Hotel Transylvania 3 (Sep. 21 - you didn't read that wrong, SCOOB and HT3 are scheduled for the same weekend rn)
• How The Grinch Stole Christmas (Nov. 9)
• Gigantic (Nov. 21)
• Spider-Man (Dec. 21)

If at least half of those don't move to 2019 and beyond, this is going to be the bloodiest bloodbath ever.

[AniNate]

Many of those dates are tentative and aren't going to stick

[cannastop]

35 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I just noticed that there are, as of right now, FIFTEEN animated films scheduled for 2018:

• The Croods 2 (Jan. 5)
• Gnomeo & Juliet 2 (Jan. 12)
• Early Man [Aardman] (Jan. 21)
• Smallfoot [WB] (President's Day Weekend)
• Larrikins [DW] (Feb. 16)
• Wreck-It Ralph 2 (March 9)
• Peter Rabbit [Sony] (March 23)
• How To Train Your Dragon 3 (May 18)
• Toy Story 4 (June 15)
• The Secret Life Of Pets 2 (July 13)
• SCOOB (Sep. 21)
• Hotel Transylvania 3 (Sep. 21 - you didn't read that wrong, SCOOB and HT3 are scheduled for the same weekend rn)
• How The Grinch Stole Christmas (Nov. 9)
• Gigantic (Nov. 21)
• Spider-Man (Dec. 21)

If at least half of those don't move to 2019 and beyond, this is going to be the bloodiest bloodbath ever.

I think that's just fine, except for the September conflict.

Edited September 2, 2016 by cannastop