2017 & Beyond Discussion Thread | Is 2017 (Summer) Bigger than 2016?

[mahnamahna]

36 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

what about Cars 3, Pirates 5, and the next Kingsman film, under 120 M material or left out ? and also Blade Runner 2, unsure if that is still coming out next year though.

Blade Runner 2 and Kingsman 2 under $130 million DOM.

 

Cars 3.. I could see Good Dinosaur #s if it's just as bad, if not worse, than Cars 2. It's near locked for a decline, regardless. I'd rather have seen Newt or another project in this release date. 

 

Pirates 5 will do $140-150 million DOM and then make $600-800 million OS ?

 

So only one of those four will make my top 20 most likely. 

[WrathOfHan]

I don't see Kingsman decreasing, the goodwill from the first should carry over.

[Kalo]

8 hours ago, mahnamahna said:

Blade Runner 2 and Kingsman 2 under $130 million DOM.

 

Cars 3.. I could see Good Dinosaur #s if it's just as bad, if not worse, than Cars 2. It's near locked for a decline, regardless. I'd rather have seen Newt or another project in this release date. 

 

Pirates 5 will do $140-150 million DOM and then make $600-800 million OS ?

 

So only one of those four will make my top 20 most likely. 

 

 

I have a feeling the absence of "Pirates" for so many years, plus Orlando Bloom being back will actually help the film, I think it will do over $200m

[AniNate]

I'm hyped for GOTG and Dunkirk, modestly anticipating Apes and Spider-Man. Otherwise next summer looks extremely lame.

[NCsoft]

13 hours ago, tribefan695 said:

I'm hyped for GOTG and Dunkirk, modestly anticipating Apes and Spider-Man. Otherwise next summer looks extremely lame.

I kind of feel the same way, there's  a few interesting films here and there, and it may be interesting to follow the international box office of Pirates 5, Transformers 5, Despicable me 3, Fast 8 (to see if they're still that fascinated with these franchises)  and domestic box office of Cars 3, to see if Pixar can somehow turn that thing around. But I have no desire to see any of the film I listed above (or World war Z 2, or pitch perfect 3, or the next divergent) , fortunately, there's still a few other good options to see. 

 

 

 

23 hours ago, mahnamahna said:

Blade Runner 2 and Kingsman 2 under $130 million DOM.

 

Cars 3.. I could see Good Dinosaur #s if it's just as bad, if not worse, than Cars 2. It's near locked for a decline, regardless. I'd rather have seen Newt or another project in this release date. 

 

Pirates 5 will do $140-150 million DOM and then make $600-800 million OS ?

 

So only one of those four will make my top 20 most likely. 

Well that's interesting! I would almost for sure bet on Kingsman 2 increasing from the first one, after the good reactions from audiences and critics.  

And as for Cars 3, I was thinking that if Cars 2 (with RT at 39%) can get to 191M domestically, even if Cars 3 drops,it's hard to see if dropping that much, it is Pixar after all, and who knows maybe they'll find a way to bring that to at least Cars 1 levels of reception.

That's pretty much what I think will happen Pirates 5 as well, maybe fatigue will even finally kick in internationally

 

[mahnamahna]

On 5/6/2016 at 2:15 PM, NCsoft said:

Well that's interesting! I would almost for sure bet on Kingsman 2 increasing from the first one, after the good reactions from audiences and critics.  

 

That's pretty much what I think will happen Pirates 5 as well, maybe fatigue will even finally kick in internationally

 

1

You have to consider all of the action movies scheduled in June:

1. Bad Boys 3
2. Wonder Woman 
3. World War Z 2
4. The Mummy
5. Transformers 5
6. Uncharted 

With POTC 5 over Memoria Day weekend, and GotG2/Baywatch in early-mid May, the tentpole market is packed to the brim. 

 

I don't see Kingsman 2 increasing with the massive amounts of competition. Kingsman 1 held well partially because it had essentially zero competition until Furious 7.

 

$110-115 million would be solid considering those 6 are slated for June and POTC 5 will roll over into the first couple weeks of June. 

 

 

[Kalo]

10 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

You have to consider all of the action movies scheduled in June:

1. Bad Boys 3
2. Wonder Woman 
3. World War Z 2
4. The Mummy
5. Transformers 5
6. Uncharted 

With POTC 5 over Memoria Day weekend, and GotG2/Baywatch in early-mid May, the tentpole market is packed to the brim. 

 

I don't see Kingsman 2 increasing with the massive amounts of competition. Kingsman 1 held well partially because it had essentially zero competition until Furious 7.

 

$110-115 million would be solid considering those 6 are slated for June and POTC 5 will roll over into the first couple weeks of June. 

 

 

 

Uncharted and Bad Boys III will not make those dates, sadly I'm not sure if Uncharted will get made at all. 

[MCKillswitch123]

On 05/05/2016 at 7:19 PM, mahnamahna said:

Blade Runner 2 and Kingsman 2 under $130 million DOM.

 

Cars 3.. I could see Good Dinosaur #s if it's just as bad, if not worse, than Cars 2. It's near locked for a decline, regardless. I'd rather have seen Newt or another project in this release date. 

 

Pirates 5 will do $140-150 million DOM and then make $600-800 million OS ?

 

So only one of those four will make my top 20 most likely. 

 

No way Pirates 5 goes under 200M. We haven't had one of these films since 2011 (6 years difference, more than the 4 year difference between At World's End and the abomination that was the fourth one), and we haven't had a truly decent one since 2006. Orlando Bloom's character returns (that makes kind of a difference), and the directors are responsible for an Oscar nominated film (Kon-Tiki), so the potential is clearly here. Plus, even Pirates 4 went way above 200M.

 

Also, Kingsman 2 will not decrease from the 1st, it'll almost assuredly make about 150M DOM. And I also doubt sub 130M for Blade Runner 2, which is getting the big early October release date that has been marvelous for other sci-fi movies (Gravity, The Martian), although that one depends heavily on trailer reactions and quality/WOM, so it's a question mark for sure.

[The Futurist]

The original tentpole is definitely dead.

 

So long ... see you in 2027, when Hollywood has crumbled ?

[MCKillswitch123]

Just now, The Futurist said:

The original tentpole is definitely dead.

 

So long ... see you in 2027, when Hollywood has crumbled ?

 

Technically, Passengers is a Holiday tentpole for Sony, so maybe not. Not yet, at least.

[babz06]

 

 

 

< April	June >
MAY 2017 Tuesday 2 ON DVD • None Listed Friday 5 NEW IN THEATERS DISTRIBUTOR RELEASE Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Action / Adventure Buena Vista Wide Tuesday 9 ON DVD • None Listed Friday 12 NEW IN THEATERS DISTRIBUTOR RELEASE Barbie Sony / Columbia Wide Mother/Daughter Comedy Fox Wide Untitled BH Tilt (2017) Drama High Top Releasing Wide Tuesday 16 ON DVD • None Listed Friday 19 NEW IN THEATERS DISTRIBUTOR RELEASE Annabelle 2 Horror Warner Bros. (New Line) Wide Baywatch Action Comedy Paramount Wide The Nut Job 2 Animation Open Road Films Wide Tuesday 23 ON DVD • None Listed Friday 26 NEW IN THEATERS DISTRIBUTOR RELEASE Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Period Adventure Buena Vista Wide Untitled Zach Galifianakis/Bill Hader/Seth Rogen R-Rated Comedy Comedy Universal Wide
< April	June >

 

May looks so bad outside of GOTG 2 and POTC 5. 

 

 

Edited July 25, 2016 by babz06

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, babz06 said:

 

 

 

< April	June >
MAY 2017 Tuesday 2 ON DVD • None Listed Friday 5 NEW IN THEATERS DISTRIBUTOR RELEASE Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Action / Adventure Buena Vista Wide Tuesday 9 ON DVD • None Listed Friday 12 NEW IN THEATERS DISTRIBUTOR RELEASE Barbie Sony / Columbia Wide Mother/Daughter Comedy Fox Wide Untitled BH Tilt (2017) Drama High Top Releasing Wide Tuesday 16 ON DVD • None Listed Friday 19 NEW IN THEATERS DISTRIBUTOR RELEASE Annabelle 2 Horror Warner Bros. (New Line) Wide Baywatch Action Comedy Paramount Wide The Nut Job 2 Animation Open Road Films Wide Tuesday 23 ON DVD • None Listed Friday 26 NEW IN THEATERS DISTRIBUTOR RELEASE Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Period Adventure Buena Vista Wide Untitled Zach Galifianakis/Bill Hader/Seth Rogen R-Rated Comedy Comedy Universal Wide
< April	June >

 

May looks so bad outside of GOTG 2 and POTC 5. 

 

 

Is it worse than May 2016, though?

[Belakor]

2017 is going to be massive. just the first trimester is full with potential hits (XXX Cage, Trainspotting 2 , Dark Tower, Lego Batman, Wolverine 3, King Arthur, Power Rangers, Kong).

Edited July 25, 2016 by Belakor

[cannastop]

Just now, Belakor said:

2017 is going to be massive. just the first trimester is full with potential hits (XXX Cage, Trainspotting 2 , Dark Tower, Lego Batman, Wolverine 3, King Arthur, Power Rangers, Kong).

Those are all potential disappointments, you know.

[babz06]

Just now, cannastop said:

Is it worse than May 2016, though?

I would say it's close. GOTG 2 is likely going to be the only 300m+ grossing film. POTC 5 will be  lucky to make 200m.

I don't see anything else hitting 100m except possibly Baywatch. 

Just like this year, March/April 2017 is going to kick off the summer season with two 300m+ hits (Beauty and the Beast, Fast 8) Wolverine 3 and Kong Skull Island could combine to make over 300m+ as well. 

[Belakor]

12 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Those are all potential disappointments, you know.

Kong looks better that any 2017 tentpole so far.

Edited July 25, 2016 by Belakor

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Belakor said:

Kong looks better that any 2017 tentpole so far.

OK, I looked at the trailer, and it is pretty awesome. $200m dom might be in the bag.

[The Futurist]

Has Barbie started shooting ?

 

I see that Uncharted and World War Z 2 are still on the schedule but we have no news on those either .

 

Some massive date changes are gonna occur for this summer.

[Eric Atreides]

1 minute ago, The Futurist said:

Has Barbie started shooting ?

 

I see that Uncharted and World War Z 2 are still on the schedule but we have no news on those either .

 

Some massive date changes are gonna occur for this summer.

Has casting even happen yet for Barbie? Also, add on Bad Boys 3 to that list.

[mahnamahna]

2 hours ago, Belakor said:

2017 is going to be massive. just the first trimester is full with potential hits (XXX Cage, Trainspotting 2 , Dark Tower, Lego Batman, Wolverine 3, King Arthur, Power Rangers, Kong).

XXX 3: $90 million

Trainspotting 2: $40 million 

Dark Tower: $125 million

LEGO Batman: $345 million

Wolverine 3: $160 million

Kong - Skull Island: $215 million 

Power Rangers: $50 million 

 

I don't see T2 or Power Rangers being hits - one is a niche sequel that could underwhelm and the other is a reboot that comes after Wolverine 3, Kong and B&TB... with Ghost and Fast 8 in the few weeks to follow.