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Wednesday 2/4/15 numbers

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Wednesday, February 4, 2015
 

>Yr >Mo > Wk >>Next Day
TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day
1 1 American Sniper WB $2,273,342 -22% -41% 3,885 $585 $255,594,133 42
2 2 Black or White Rela. $522,812 -33% - 1,823 $287 $8,031,205 6
3 5 The Wedding Ringer SGem $492,491 -24% -31% 2,820 $175 $49,803,774 20
4 4 The Boy Next Door Uni. $470,700 -29% -44% 2,615 $180 $26,280,100 13
5 6 The Imitation Game Wein. $464,703 -25% -16% 2,402 $193 $69,317,911 69
6 3 Project Almanac Par. $440,002 -35% - 2,893 $152 $10,010,540 6
7 7 Paddington W/Dim. $329,647 -32% -28% 3,303 $100 $51,585,414 20
8 9 Selma Par. $307,663 -10% -27% 1,714 $180 $44,359,479 42
9 8 Taken 3 Fox $288,933 -27% -33% 2,533 $114 $82,457,863 27
10 10 The Loft ORF $229,236 -24% - 1,841 $125 $3,529,032 6
- - Strange Magic BV $170,544 -26% -20% 3,020 $56 $10,440,523 13
- - Birdman FoxS $152,030 -15% -22% 976 $156 $33,669,956 111
- - Mortdecai LGF $139,112 -33% -51% 2,648 $53 $7,346,765 13
- - Game of Thrones (IMAX) WB $123,250 +8% - 205 $601 $1,804,637 6
- - Into the Woods BV $119,020 -21% -46% 1,725 $69 $124,750,791 42
- - The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies WB $108,088 -21% -48% 910 $119 $252,054,610 50
- - The Theory of Everything Focus $107,041 -21% -22% 805 $133 $30,920,560 90
- - Unbroken Uni. $80,325 -16% -50% 800 $100 $114,102,225 42
- - Wild (2014) FoxS $70,555 -14% -29% 418 $169 $35,878,746 64
- - Black Sea Focus $57,408 -17% +1,527% 313 $183 $695,410 13

 

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a few theater counts are out (but a bunch are still missing, so I won't post the whole list yet), and here's the one you were waiting for:

 

 

Mortdecai Lionsgate 253 -2,395 -90.4% 3

 


 

BIGGEST THEATER DROPS
Wide Releases That Lost the Most Theaters in Their Third Weekends

Most of the time, theaters are obligated to show a movie for two weeks. What they do when that time's up speaks to a picture's traction in the marketplace.
1982-Present

Note: This chart only shows the 200 largest drops regardless of sorting.

Rank Title (click to view) Theaters
Week 2
Theater Change Theaters
Week 3
% BO Change Total Gross^ Release Date*
1 Meet Dave 3,011 -2,523 488 -77.0% $11,803,254 7/11/08
2 Jonah Hex 2,825 -2,475 350 -92.4% $10,547,117 6/18/10
3 Mortdecai 2,648 -2,395 253 - $7,346,765 1/23/15
4 The Rocker 2,784 -2,375 409 -84.0% $6,409,528 8/20/08
5 MacGruber 2,546 -2,369 177 -93.7% $8,525,600 5/21/10
6 The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising 3,173 -2,338 835 -78.9% $8,794,452 10/05/07
7 Blackhat 2,568 -2,332 236 -93.0% $7,876,330 1/16/15
8 Winter's Tale 2,965 -2,260 705 -88.8% $12,600,231 2/14/14
9 The Last Stand 2,913 -2,224 689 -87.4% $12,050,299 1/18/13
10 The Express 2,810 -2,205 605 -79.3% $9,793,406 10/10/08

 

 

It simply wasn't in enough theater to challenge for the top 2 spots.

 

Also, slightly surprising this wasn't worse than it turned out to be:

 

 

Strange Magic Buena Vista 1,322 -1,698 -56.2% 3

 

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AS drops about 40% at the moment. If it keeps that up, it would finish with $319m.

Using the last 2 weeks drop 50% as basis, it would finish with under $300m.

To win 2014 it would need average weekly drop rates sub 35%. It only managed that on 2nd Saturday and Sunday.

I still say 50:50 to win the year.

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AS drops about 40% at the moment. If it keeps that up, it would finish with $319m.

Using the last 2 weeks drop 50% as basis, it would finish with under $300m.

To win 2014 it would need average weekly drop rates sub 35%. It only managed that on 2nd Saturday and Sunday.

I still say 50:50 to win the year.

 

 

You understand that it's pretty much guaranteed to have a smaller than 35% drop next weekend, right? (Valentines/Presidents Day)

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You understand that it's pretty much guaranteed to have a smaller than 35% drop next weekend, right? (Valentines/Presidents Day)

 

It's got some strong competition next weekend and a lot of adults are not off on President's Day. It will be the kid movies that get the bigger bump.

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You understand that it's pretty much guaranteed to have a smaller than 35% drop next weekend, right? (Valentines/Presidents Day)

Lets say it will drop 30% next week, than it still needs at least 37% for the rest of its run. Still not a given IMHO.

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It's got some strong competition next weekend and a lot of adults are not off on President's Day. It will be the kid movies that get the bigger bump.

 

It's less about the competition and more about the Sunday. While Friday and Saturday are probably due for 40% drops, Sunday will see a pretty big bump over last Sunday, which keeps the Weekend decline down, probably under 30%.

 

The following weekend will have another good Sunday hold, due to the holiday.

 

It looks like it's going to end right around the GotG/MJ1 mark.

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It's less about the competition and more about the Sunday. While Friday and Saturday are probably due for 40% drops, Sunday will see a pretty big bump over last Sunday, which keeps the Weekend decline down, probably under 30%.

 

The following weekend will have another good Sunday hold, due to the holiday.

 

It looks like it's going to end right around the GotG/MJ1 mark.

probably a thriller right through the end

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Theater Counts > 2015 > Week 6

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February 6 Estimates

Updated Thursday afternoons

 

View Index Next Year > Next Week >>
Rank LW Title Distributor Theater Count Change % Change Week #
> NEW RELEASES
1 - The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water Paramount 3,641 - - 1
2 - Jupiter Ascending Warner Bros. 3,150+ - - 1
5 - Seventh Son Universal 2,872 - - 1
31 - Pass the Light DigiNext 72 - - 1
35 - Love, Rosie The Film Arcade 15 - - 1
> EXPANDING
3 4 Project Almanac Paramount 2,900 +7 +0.2% 2
17 26 Black Sea Focus Features 353 +40 +12.8% 3
23 44 Still Alice Sony Classics 135 +51 +60.7% 4
27 52 The Gambler Paramount 103 +69 +202.9% 7
29 49 Mr. Turner Sony Classics 79 +25 +46.3% 8
33 65 Leviathan (2014) Sony Classics 24 +11 +84.6% 7
36 74 Red Army Sony Classics 14 +9 +180.0% 3
> NO CHANGE
9 10 The Loft Open Road Films 1,841 - - 2
10 11 Black or White Relativity 1,823 - - 2
> DECLINING
4 2 Paddington Weinstein / Dimension 2,888 -415 -12.6% 4
6 7 The Boy Next Door Universal 2,192 -423 -16.2% 3
7 5 The Wedding Ringer Sony / Screen Gems 2,138 -682 -24.2% 4
8 9 The Imitation Game Weinstein Company 1,963 -439 -18.3% 11
11 3 Strange Magic Buena Vista 1,322 -1,698 -56.2% 3
12 13 Selma Paramount 941 -773 -45.1% 7
13 12 Into the Woods Buena Vista 750 -975 -56.5% 7
14 17 The Theory of Everything Focus Features 602 -203 -25.2% 14
15 20 Whiplash Sony Classics 479 -46 -8.8% 18
16 18 Unbroken Universal 392 -408 -51.0% 7
18 21 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 Lionsgate 325 -165 -33.7% 12
19 6 Mortdecai Lionsgate 253 -2,395 -90.4% 3
20 23 Annie (2014) Sony / Columbia 217 -166 -43.3% 8
21 27 Foxcatcher Sony Classics 175 -127 -42.1% 13
22 29 Spare Parts Lionsgate 135 -160 -54.2% 4
24 34 Interstellar Paramount 119 -39 -24.7% 14
25 36 Big Eyes Weinstein Company 111 -26 -19.0% 7
26 38 Dumb and Dumber To Universal 105 -26 -19.8% 13
28 31 The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death Relativity 88 -129 -59.4% 6
30 24 Cake Cinelou Films 75 -298 -79.9% 3
32 50 St. Vincent Weinstein Company 37 -6 -14.0% 18
34 55 Mommy Roadside Attractions 21 -6 -22.2% 21
37 64 The Homesman Saban Films 9 -4 -30.8% 13
View Index Next Year > Next Week >>

 

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BIGGEST THEATER DROPS
Wide Releases That Lost the Most Theaters in Their Third Weekends

Most of the time, theaters are obligated to show a movie for two weeks. What they do when that time's up speaks to a picture's traction in the marketplace.
1982-Present

Note: This chart only shows the 200 largest drops regardless of sorting.

Rank Title (click to view) Theaters
Week 2
Theater Change Theaters
Week 3
% BO Change Total Gross^ Release Date*
1 Meet Dave 3,011 -2,523 488 -77.0% $11,803,254 7/11/08
2 Jonah Hex 2,825 -2,475 350 -92.4% $10,547,117 6/18/10
3 Mortdecai 2,648 -2,395 253 - $7,346,765 1/23/15
4 The Rocker 2,784 -2,375 409 -84.0% $6,409,528 8/20/08
5 MacGruber 2,546 -2,369 177 -93.7% $8,525,600 5/21/10
6 The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising 3,173 -2,338 835 -78.9% $8,794,452 10/05/07
7 Blackhat 2,568 -2,332 236 -93.0% $7,876,330 1/16/15
8 Winter's Tale 2,965 -2,260 705 -88.8% $12,600,231 2/14/14
9 The Last Stand 2,913 -2,224 689 -87.4% $12,050,299 1/18/13
10 The Express 2,810 -2,205 605 -79.3% $9,793,406 10/10/08
11 Hoot 3,018 -2,200 818 -81.5% $8,117,637 5/05/06
12 Lucky You 2,525 -2,180 345 -86.5% $5,758,950 5/04/07
13 Gigli 2,215 -2,142 73 -97.2% $6,087,542 8/01/03

 

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