Adjusting Exchange Rates... (First post updated with Jason's new list)

[Mojoguy]

If you think it's bad now, Goldman Sachs said they expect an exchange rate of about 1€ = $0.80 in 2017.That means euro zone grosses in $ could be almost divided by 2 compared to when the Euro peaked.

 

Why is the Euro falling so badly? 

[terrestrial]

 

Why is the Euro falling so badly? 

 

I think for different reasons.

The biggest on:

some European countries managed to get some majority (my words) to get the printers started for new Euros (official it was the ~ independent EZB/ECB boss). As in a lot. My country's government seems not to be happy about that. Quantitative Easing they call it. They want to do that till later in 2016.

 

My assumption is, they want toe.g. lessen their huge credit amounts. Not explained as such in their reasonings.

Some countries never got to get their a... up and do/did some much needed changes, fights against corruption included, prefered the voters vote over the much needed shown strength, or ... did not want to see any lessening in spending as they maybe knew the inner European contracts mean they'll get help from the money-giving countries anyway.

But even the better economy-wise countries didn't lessen the credits when money was available (including our own conversative rulers).... 'stole' a lot out of the budgets for e.g. the military (lengthened the reformations, changed the reformation goals every few years, didn't keep their obligations within the complete EU system as contracted to do....

 

Some companies might even be happy about that, they can offer now their products world-wide to a cheaper prize. But pay more for base materials (term?, raw metalls,...) and later for oil too (I am wondering when the oil prizes will be up again, for the moment they are not at a 'natural' / healthy for several countries economy level)

 

Also some rich people / companies working money via exchange rates... seem to be for now (see Greece,...) a bit skeptical about the Euro in general.

 

Plus Russia's Rubel is extreme down too, what will Russia do to countersct that? To start a war or... seems to be a very much loved idea in such cases.

Also a lot of European countries did not put much money in military... the last some years. That will change now. That might strain the countries economy / governmental money too a lot = another reason for people working with exchange rates.... to be a bit skeptical.

 

And so on

 

In the end too many short-succes/fast money making descision (including the several reasons behind the oil prizes) IMHO, partly with very bad long-lasting problems for the middle to farer future for a lot of people / countries / regions. Lots of 'empty baloons' in creation too

[Ruthie]

Wow, Peludo, this information is fantastic!  Thanks for all your hard work. 

[terrestrial]

I started to give a link to this thread in answering posts asking about international details / why to expect less from non-dom BO.

 

For the ones who are interested too  how the changed rates will influence positivly and negativly also other general busineses beside the movie business:

Bloomberg Business wrote an article about that:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-15/siemens-cheers-euro-slump-as-emerson-seeks-to-ease-dollar-sting

 

Maybe you are also interested in such kind of articles peludo?

 

Not planning to add now lother articles of the same theme again without someone asking for it.

[Jessie]

If you think it's bad now, Goldman Sachs said they expect an exchange rate of about 1€ = $0.80 in 2017.That means euro zone grosses in $ could be almost divided by 2 compared to when the Euro peaked.

 

nice

[terrestrial]

nice

 

Is that meant ironic?

 

It's (very) bad for US based movies....

[Hernan Gonzalez]

Is that meant ironic?

 

It's (very) bad for US based movies....

He is British. Holidays in continental Europe are going to be cheaper than ever for them... It's understandable for them to be happy because of that. It's not all about movies

[Jessie]

Is that meant ironic?

 

It's (very) bad for US based movies....

 

I part own a distribution company in which we buy our products from Portugal, France and Holland (euro) so yes this makes me vwery happy as it saves us tens of thousands a year.

 

And who cares, they are still making millions in profit, the exchange rate is just making up for the 3d premium boost and expanding markets. They are still laughing, and im sure if the rates keep dropping they will negotiate and bigger cut from certain markets.

 

Obviously I care more about myself than film studios.

Edited March 16, 2015 by jessie

[Jessie]

He is British. Holidays in continental Europe are going to be cheaper than ever for them... It's understandable for them to be happy because of that. It's not all about movies

 

lol, im not that bothered about saving £100 on holidays, I rarely go away, always working lol, and if I did Thailand is the place for me.

[terrestrial]

, the exchange rate is just making up for the 3d premium boost and expanding markets.

 

 

That is wrong, especially as a generally statement

[peludo]

I started to give a link to this thread in answering posts asking about international details / why to expect less from non-dom BO.

 

For the ones who are interested too  how the changed rates will influence positivly and negativly also other general busineses beside the movie business:

Bloomberg Business wrote an article about that:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-15/siemens-cheers-euro-slump-as-emerson-seeks-to-ease-dollar-sting

 

Maybe you are also interested in such kind of articles peludo?

 

Not planning to add now lother articles of the same theme again without someone asking for it.

It has not influence on this project directly, but it is a good article in order people can be conscious what are we talking about. It is not just a box office matter, but affects to nearly everything in economical world.

[Jessie]

That is wrong, especially as a generally statement

 

No, movies are better off now than they were 5 years ago, overseas. The fact TF3 adjusts to 993 with the current exchange rate gives a good indicator, that number wouldn't have been achieved in 2009

 

And you say you don't hold a grudge, clinging onto my every comment lol

[terrestrial]

No, movies are better off now than they were 5 years ago, overseas. The fact TF3 adjusts to 993 with the current exchange rate gives a good indicator, that number wouldn't have been achieved in 2009

 

And you say you don't hold a grudge, clinging onto my every comment lol

 

You really seem to take yourself a bit too... what is the word for that? Self-important?

 

Only bcs you seem to take my responses personally, doesn't mean they are nor that I'll start to avoid you.

 

You tend to write way too generalising.

 

Like e.g.

China:

there are still movies that neither are in 3D nor get even released in e.g. China (China has a max foreign movie per year rule btw)

China gave also already in the past and actual even more so, more and more public holiday avoiding release dates, doesn't allow in a summer month foreign movie at all (protecting their market... month) and so on.

Or why some movies get an extentions for their rather short / limited by law running time and some not

Some results possible 3 years back get more difficult to get again. What helps is the growing count of theaters in China as a sum and their high percentage of 3D theaters, also their not down in relation to the US dollar currency. China is the major factor for the growing international market, in a lot of other countries the admissions... are rather declining

China is not the only Asian country..... and Europa you'll be aware as you live in the UK. Ask CJohn what is happening to the Portugese movie market, or why we here in Germany only have 2 IMAX anymore and so on.

 

For some titles your assumption might be correct (to a degree), but way not as a general statement.

For the general market it looks partly still good (are you aware about e.g. Chinese... movies too nowadays are in the ww top charts?), but not for the US based movies IMHO, beside some exceptions/tentpoles...

Hence the reason I answered.

 

Btw, I post details, news, add to threads like this and answer to a lot of posts here at the forum, the ones quoting yours are a rather small percentage.

[Jessie]

You really seem to take yourself a bit too... what is the word for that? Self-important?

Only bcs you seem to take my responses personally, doesn't mean they are nor that I'll start to avoid you.

You tend to write way too generalising.

Like e.g.

China:

there are still movies that neither are in 3D nor get even released in e.g. China (China has a max foreign movie per year rule btw)

China gave also already in the past and actual even more so, more and more public holiday avoiding release dates, doesn't allow in a summer month foreign movie at all (protecting their market... month) and so on.

Or why some movies get an extentions for their rather short / limited by law running time and some not

Some results possible 3 years back get more difficult to get again. What helps is the growing count of theaters in China as a sum and their high percentage of 3D theaters, also their not down in relation to the US dollar currency. China is the major factor for the growing international market, in a lot of other countries the admissions... are rather declining

China is not the only Asian country..... and Europa you'll be aware as you live in the UK. Ask CJohn what is happening to the Portugese movie market, or why we here in Germany only have 2 IMAX anymore and so on.

For some titles your assumption might be correct (to a degree), but way not as a general statement.

For the general market it looks partly still good (are you aware about e.g. Chinese... movies too nowadays are in the ww top charts?), but not for the US based movies IMHO, beside some exceptions/tentpoles...

Hence the reason I answered.

Btw, I post details, news, add to threads like this and answer to a lot of posts here at the forum, the ones quoting yours are a rather small percentage.

I don't consider myself self important in the slightest, im a human being like the rest of us and I know there are far more knowledgeable people on these forums here than me lol. Some of my posts can come across a little aggressive when i read them back but i can assure you that if i was talkng to people face to face, my comments wouldn't come out as demeaning in any way.

As for the exchange rates discussion, I understand how the Asian markets work with limited profit going to the studio heads but to say they are suffering is a little premature. I'm arguing that the 3D surcharge, inflation and expanding markets over the years have given studios a good run and this lower exchange rate if anything should encourage studios to start filming in foreign countries to make use of this high dollar. There are a lot of smart people in Hollywood who should be able to work around this and they most likely will

Edited March 16, 2015 by jessie

[terrestrial]

I don't consider myself self important in the slightest, im a human being like the rest of us and I know there are far more knowledgeable people on these forums here than me lol. Some of my posts can come across a little aggressive when i read them back but i can assure you that if i was talkng to people face to face, my comments wouldn't come out as demeaning in any way.

As for the exchange rates discussion, I understand how the Asian markets work with limited profit going to the studio heads but to say they are suffering is a little premature. I'm arguing that the 3D surcharge, inflation and expanding markets over the years have given studios a good run and this lower exchange rate if anything should encourage studios to start filming in foreign countries to make use of this high dollar. There are a lot of smart people in Hollywood who should be able to work around this and they most likely will

 

[terrestrial]

Why does the High-5-smiley-pair not move? Or is it only my notebook?

[Jessie]

Why does the High-5-smiley-pair not move? Or is it only my notebook?

It works

[terrestrial]

It works

 

Thanks. For a few minutes the whole forum was not longer accessable... strange

[Jessie]

Thanks. For a few minutes the whole forum was not longer accessable... strange

I thought that was just my internet, I even rebooted my router lol

[GiantCALBears]

Fantastic work OP, good discussion too. Thanks, clearly something everyone looking at OS & WW grosses needs to consider right now with the crazy forex moves.