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Adjusting Exchange Rates... (First post updated with Jason's new list)

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I'm sure you have your own schedule of when you're planning to do things but if possible could you wait until after the boxoffice runs of Fast and Furious 7 and Avengers 2 before you do the approximate inflation adjusted list. I think it would be great if we could wait until the record 2015 summer is over before getting an approximate list tallied. I look forward to whatever and whenever you can put a list together for us lazy bums who sit back and greatly appreciate your hard work Peludo. Real analysis is what boxoffice discussion is constantly missing in many a thread and its great Peludo that your actually doing exploration into world boxoffice numbers to see how popular certain films were during their theatrical releases.

 

I just have three questions and forgive me if you have already addressed it. How do you plan to adjust for the 3D and IMAX rates? Especially for the films that didn't have a slight 3D bump in ticket prices? And will the extrapolated number be in today's exchange rates?

 

Also, how far you want to go back (in terms of decades) is up to you and I know some posters want numbers from the Sound of Music days but I would be fascinated just by the numbers of the last 20-25 years. Like Jurassic Park in 93 to now. Jurassic Park was the movie that got me interested in following boxoffice numbers and I'm interested in seeing how it theoretically inflation adjusted stacks up to the big franchise boys playing now if possible.

 

I'm curious what was the film that got you interested in boxoffice Peludo?

Right now I have this work stopped. Lot of work in my job and since I work with a computer, I find a bit tiring these days to continue at home :P. I have already adjusted several movies with Lumiere data with European admissions and I have about 80 films adjusted with just exchange rates, but I have not found time to update the first post. I will restart as soon as possible. I promise :)

 

Relative to how I will adjust 3D or IMAX, I do not have data of ratios of each movie. I will take admissions of each movie in each country and will make an easy multiplication: current average ticket price with current exchange rates by admissions. It is hard enough to complicate it. This just pretend to be an approximation...

 

And relative to when I became interested in boxoffice. Well, I have always loved numbers and statistics, although I did not study it. There was a chart in the newspaper we bought at home with the top 10 in Spain, and top 3 in USA, UK and France. I started to see that info about 1998-1999. But when I became really interested was in December 2001, with HP1 vs FOTR battle. That battle started, IMHO, a new era in boxoffice and cinema: enormous franchises. And since I love LOTR, I was very interested on it. I registered in BOM in 2004 when I finally started to use Internet and now we are here :)

Edited by peludo
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Right now I have this work stopped. Lot of work in my job and since I work with a computer, I find a bit tiring these days to continue at home :P. I have already adjusted several movies with Lumiere data with European admissions and I have about 80 films adjusted with just exchange rates, but I have not found time to update the first post. I will restart as soon as possible. I promise :)

 

Relative to how I will adjust 3D or IMAX, I do not have data of ratios of each movie. I will take admissions of each movie in each country and will make an easy multiplication: current average ticket price with current exchange rates by admissions. It is hard enough to complicate it. This just pretend to be an approximation...

 

And relative to when I became interested in boxoffice. Well, I have always loved numbers and statistics, although I did not study it. There was a chart in the newspaper we bought at home with the top 10 in Spain, and top 3 in USA, UK and France. I started to see that info about 1998-1999. But when I became really interested was in December 2001, with HP1 vs FOTR battle. That battle started, IMHO, a new era in boxoffice and cinema: enormous franchises. And since I love LOTR, I was very interested on it. I registered in BOM in 2004 when I finally started to use Internet and now we are here :)

*sadfaic*

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One aspect that is being ignored is inflation. In some markets average ticket prices have increase quite a bit to offset ER. Example Venezuela, ER is like 50% lower compared to 2012 but ticket prices > 3x since then. So overall its better. Similarly we need to compare both ER and TR together to come up with effective gross.

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There are several new enormous films and since the job of calculating a WW adjusted list is extremely difficult, I have made another simple (and unaccurate) list, applying the same inflation for OS figures than for DOM figures. I am conscious that it is not correct, and some figures could be quite wrong, but still could give us an approximate idea. Some developed markets (Eurozone, Australia) have always had a quite similar inflation to US (about 2-3%). Others like Japan has no inflation. And of course, there are many new big markets like certain South American or Asian countries whose inflation is quite bigger, but as I said, this is just an approximation.

 

I have not applied the 3D boost for 2D films, so 3D films have advantage. We can discuss what ratio we can apply to 2D films to compensate this factor (5%? 10%? 15%?). And later we could play the game of guessing how much would have done today these films in China. As I said with previous posts in this thread, do not take too seriously the data I am giving. It is just an approximation.

 

#. FILM: DOM ADJ / OS ADJ / WW ADJ

1. Titanic: 1160 / 2505 / 3665
2. Avatar: 851 / 1823 / 2674
3. Star Wars: 1453 / 882 / 2335
4. E.T. The Extraterrestrial: 1172 / 882 / 2054
5. Jurassic Park: 770 / 1037 / 1807
6. Jurassic World: 649 / 1003 / 1652
7. The Lion King: 745 / 853 / 1598
8. Star Wars 1 (The Phantom Menace): 757 / 831 / 1588
9. Harry Potter 1 (Sorcerer's Stone): 471 / 1106 / 1577
10. Furious 7: 351 / 1161 / 1512
11. The Return of the King: 526 / 904 / 1430
12. The Avengers: 657 / 752 / 1410
13. The Fellowship of the Ring: 468 / 936 / 1404
14. Avengers: Agre of Ultron: 458 / 944 / 1402
15. Independence Day: 582 / 813 / 1395
16. The Two Towers: 495 / 848 / 1342
17. Harry Potter 2 (Chamber of Secrets): 378 / 899 / 1277
18. Pirates of the Caribbean 2: 542 / 690 / 1232
19. Forrest Gump: 663 / 564 / 1227
20. Spider-man: 583 / 610 / 1193
21. Finding Nemo: 516 / 667 / 1183
22. Harry Potter 8 (Deathly Hallows II): 403 / 773 / 1177
23. Frozen: 414 / 750 / 1164
24. Shrek 2: 596 / 563 / 1159
25. Iron Man 3: 422 / 680 / 1103
26. Harry Potter 4 (Globet of Fire): 380 / 717 / 1097
27. The Sixth Sense: 484 / 580 / 1065
28. Minions: 329 / 714 / 1043
29. Star Wars 3 (Revenge of the Sith): 498 / 541 / 1038
30. The Dark Knight: 625 / 412 / 1037
31. Transformers 3 (Dark of the Moon): 373 / 655 / 1028
32. Skyfall: 321 / 707 / 1028
33. The Dark Knight Rises: 472 / 555 / 1028
34. Pirates of the Caribbean 3: 377 / 643 / 1020
35. Transformers 4 (Age of Extinction): 252 / 754 / 1006
36. Toy Story 3: 441 / 555 / 996
37. Harry Potter 3 (Prisoner of Azkaban): 337 / 658 / 995
38. Spider-man 2: 505 / 488 / 993
39. Harry Potter 5 (Order of the Phoenix): 356 / 636 / 992
40. Matrix Reloaded: 392 / 593 / 985
41. Spider-man 3: 410 / 540 / 951
42. Alice in Wonderland: 355 / 577 / 933
43. The Hobbit 3 (Battle of the Five Armies): 262 / 670 / 931
44. The Hobbit 1 (An Unexpected Journey): 319 / 600 / 919
45. The Chronicles of Narnia I: 382 / 522 / 904
46. Harry Potter 6 (Half-Blood Prince): 338 / 561 / 899
47. Despicable me 2: 380 / 504 / 884
48. Pirates of the Caribbean 4: 255 / 625 / 880
49. Harry Potter 7 (Deathly Hallows I): 315 / 559 / 874
50. Transformers 2 (Revenge of the Fallen): 450 / 422 / 872
51. The Da Vinci Code: 279 / 590 / 868
52. The Hobbit 2 (Desolation of Smaug): 267 / 588 / 855
53. Shrek 3: 394 / 437 / 831
54. The Hunger Games 2 (Catching Fire): 438 / 367 / 806
55. Ice Age 3 (Dawn of the Dinosaurs): 220 / 578 / 797
56. Inception: 311 / 481 / 792
57. Transformers: 389 / 390 / 779
58. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull: 371 / 400 / 771
59. Ice Age 4 (Continental Drift): 170 / 597 / 767
60. Twilight 5 (Breaking Dawn II): 308 / 428 / 736
61. The Hunger Games 3 (Mockingjay I): 346 / 382 / 728
62. Guardians of the Galaxy: 342 / 382 / 724
63. 2012: 186 / 531 / 717
64. Up: 328 / 379 / 707
65. Fast & Furious 6: 246 / 459 / 705
66. The Amazing Spider-man: 276 / 422 / 698
67. X-Men: Days of future past: 240 / 444 / 684
68. Maleficent: 248 / 430 / 678
69. Twilight 2 (New Moon): 332 / 344 / 676
70. Shrek 4: 254 / 422 / 676
71. Monsters University: 277 / 397 / 674
72. The Hunger Games: 430 / 240 / 670
73. Gravity: 283 / 382 / 665
74. Captain America 2: 267 / 396 / 663
75. Madagascar 3: 228 / 429 / 658
76. Twilight 3 (Eclipse): 320 / 335 / 654
77. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: 214 / 438 / 652
78. Interstellar: 193 / 459 / 652
79. Mission Impossible 4: 222 / 426 / 647
80. Twilight 4 (Breaking Dawn I): 298 / 349 / 646
81. The Amazing Spider-man 2: 208 / 436 / 645
82. Man of Steel: 300 / 332 / 632
83. Kung Fu Panda 2: 175 / 413 / 587
84. Fast & Furious 5: 222 / 328 / 550
Edited by peludo
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Awesome list Peludo, thanks man for all the hard work. Trying to guess the 3D share for classic blockbuster films like Independence Day, Jurassic Park, and the Lord of the Rings, when they were groundbreaking endeavors is going to be nearly impossible. They could've pulled Avatar like runs in 3D or it may not have added more than %10 to their grosses. I think hypothetically you should do this exact same list, minus China for the current blockbusters, to make a more accurate comparison for older films. 

 

Or for the older films, I guess we can give all of them a base gross of 100 million in China, just to make it fair ;)

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This is a WW list adjusted for inflation, without China and applying a 10% increase because of 3D to those films which were released just in 2D. Everyone is free to speculate about what would have done each film in China today. Again, this is just a game, with a not very rigorous adjust way (remember that OS figure has been adjusted following the adjust figures of US and with current exchange rates):

 

#. FILM: DOM / OS-C / WW-C

1. Titanic: 1276 / 2366 / 3641

2. Star Wars: 1598 / 970 / 2568
3. Avatar: 851 / 1578 / 2428
4. E.T. The Extraterrestrial: 1290 / 970 / 2260
5. Jurassic Park: 847 / 1027 / 1874
6. Star Wars 1 (The Phantom Menace): 833 / 907 / 1740
7. Harry Potter 1 (Sorcerer's Stone): 518 / 1216 / 1734
8. The Lion King: 819 / 912 / 1731
9. The Return of the King: 578 / 979 / 1557
10. Independence Day: 640 / 895 / 1535
11. The Fellowship of the Ring: 515 / 1015 / 1530
12. The Two Towers: 544 / 926 / 1470
13. Jurassic World: 647 / 776 / 1423
14. Harry Potter 2 (Chamber of Secrets): 416 / 976 / 1392
15. Pirates of the Caribbean 2: 596 / 759 / 1355
16. Forrest Gump: 730 / 620 / 1350
17. The Avengers: 657 / 658 / 1315
18. Spider-man: 641 / 661 / 1302
19. Finding Nemo: 568 / 733 / 1301
20. Shrek 2: 656 / 616 / 1272
21. Harry Potter 4 (Globet of Fire): 418 / 768 / 1185
22. Avengers: Age of Ultron: 458 / 709 / 1167
23. The Dark Knight: 687 / 454 / 1141
24. Star Wars 3 (Revenge of the Sith): 548 / 578 / 1125
25. Furious 7: 351 / 771 / 1122
26. Frozen: 414 / 702 / 1116
27. Harry Potter 8 (Deathly Hallows II): 403 / 709 / 1112
28. The Sixth Sense: 533 / 572 / 1105
29. Pirates of the Caribbean 3: 415 / 680 / 1095
30. Harry Potter 3 (Prisoner of Azkaban): 371 / 719 / 1089
31. Matrix Reloaded: 431 / 653 / 1084
32. Spider-man 2: 555 / 526 / 1081
33. The Dark Knight Rises: 520 / 550 / 1070
34. Skyfall: 353 / 710 / 1063
35. Harry Potter 5 (Order of the Phoenix): 392 / 669 / 1060
36. Minions: 330 / 720 / 1050
37. Spider-man 3: 451 / 564 / 1015
38. Toy Story 3: 441 / 555 / 996
39. Harry Potter 6 (Half-Blood Prince): 372 / 617 / 988
40. Iron Man 3: 422 / 558 / 980
41. The Chronicles of Narnia I: 420 / 560 / 980
42. Alice in Wonderland: 355 / 577 / 933
43. The Da Vinci Code: 307 / 625 / 932
44. Harry Potter 7 (Deathly Hallows I): 346 / 575 / 921
45. Shrek 3: 433 / 480 / 913
46. Ice Age 3 (Dawn of the Dinosaurs): 242 / 635 / 877
47. Transformers 2 (Revenge of the Fallen): 495 / 377 / 872
48. The Hobbit 1 (An Unexpected Journey): 319 / 548 / 868
49. The Hunger Games 2 (Catching Fire): 482 / 374 / 856
50. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull: 408 / 440 / 848
51. Transformers 3 (Dark of the Moon): 373 / 467 / 840
52. Despicable me 2: 380 / 452 / 831
53. Twilight 5 (Breaking Dawn II): 339 / 471 / 810
54. The Hobbit 3 (Battle of the Five Armies): 262 / 546 / 807
55. Pirates of the Caribbean 4: 255 / 549 / 804
56. Transformers: 428 / 370 / 798
57. Inception: 342 / 444 / 786
58. The Hobbit 2 (Desolation of Smaug): 267 / 514 / 781
59. Up: 361 / 417 / 778
60. The Hunger Games 3 (Mockingjay I): 381 / 380 / 761
61. Twilight 2 (New Moon): 365 / 379 / 744
62. Inside Out: 350 / 386 / 736
63. Twilight 3 (Eclipse): 352 / 368 / 720
64. Twilight 4 (Breaking Dawn I): 327 / 384 / 711
65. The Hunger Games: 473 / 233 / 706
66. Fast & Furious 6: 271 / 431 / 702
67. 2012: 204 / 494 / 698
68. Ice Age 4 (Continental Drift): 170 / 525 / 696
69. Transformers 4 (Age of Extinction): 252 / 435 / 687
70. Shrek 4: 254 / 407 / 661
71. The Amazing Spider-man: 276 / 371 / 647
72. Monsters University: 277 / 363 / 640
73. Maleficent: 248 / 383 / 631
74. Guardians of the Galaxy: 342 / 286 / 629
75. Madagascar 3: 228 / 396 / 624
76. Mission Impossible 4: 244 / 352 / 595
77. Gravity: 283 / 312 / 595
78. Interstellar: 212 / 371 / 583
79. Man of Steel: 300 / 268 / 568
80. X-Men: Days of future past: 240 / 328 / 568
81. The Amazing Spider-man 2: 208 / 342 / 550
82. Captain America 2: 267 / 281 / 548
83. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: 214 / 331 / 545
84. Kung Fu Panda 2: 175 / 313 / 488
Edited by peludo
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Some interesting data with the last list:

 

- Adding China, Titanic would be close or maybe surpassing 4 billion

- Star Wars would be on par or over Avatar

- Independence Day would adjust to over 1.5 billion without China. Enormous.

 

And looking at Star Wars in order to think in a prediction for SW7 we see:

 

6. Star Wars 1 (The Phantom Menace): 833 / 907 / 1740

24. Star Wars 3 (Revenge of the Sith): 548 / 578 / 1125

 

I think it will land somewhere between both. I think it will be bigger than both DOM / OS SW3 figures and lower than both DOM / OS SW1 figures. A prediction like 650 / 850 / 1.5 billion is, IMHO, definitely justified and, even, reasonable, considering that the 1.74b SW1 figure and the 1.125b SW3 number do not include an hypothetical Chinese release.

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Great list Peludo, thanks for all the effort and making the second list without China and the 10% bump. Um, I hate to bother you or nitpick, but where is Star Wars Attack of the Clones, Tim Burton's 1989 Batman, Raiders of the Lost Ark, Back to the Future's, & 2005 King Kong!!! ;)

 

But no seriously, thanks for all the hard work you've put in to make this approximation of global box office trends. Ignoring re-releases for some films (Lion King, Titanic, Star Wars, etc...), not that it would change things drastically or anything, looking at the data I'm shocked that with the exception of Avatar, Jurassic World, & the first Avengers, there is no film released in the last ten years that would break the all time top twenty (without China grosses).

 

I unofficially predict Hollywood will be making half their films, superhero and sci-fi, in China over the next decade B)    

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Oh and one more thing, billion dollar grosses. With China you've got 35 films, without China 37 films. Even adding in classic old films, (Sound of Music, Ben Hur, etc...) and like we say various 3D bumps and expanding markets, there has probably not been more than 50-60 films in cinema history that have made a billion dollars. A billion dollars is still a special occurrence regardless of the times or trends but people always want to downplay a film grossing a billion, it had 3D its not as impressive as 2D (ignoring all the films in 3D that don't make a billion), or blame overseas audiences for their tastes ignoring the domestic lack of taste in many a blockbuster, especially if they don't like it, like say Minions or Pirates 3.

 

This kind of list shows just how impressive it still is especially taking into account the last thirty years of modern box office.

Edited by sensui
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Oh and one more thing, billion dollar grosses. With China you've got 35 films, without China 37 films. Even adding in classic old films, (Sound of Music, Ben Hur, etc...) and like we say various 3D bumps and expanding markets, there has probably not been more than 50-60 films in cinema history that have made a billion dollars. A billion dollars is still a special occurrence regardless of the times or trends but people always want to downplay a film grossing a billion, it had 3D its not as impressive as 2D (ignoring all the films in 3D that don't make a billion), or blame overseas audiences for their tastes ignoring the domestic lack of taste in many a blockbuster, especially if they don't like it, like say Minions or Pirates 3.

 

This kind of list shows just how impressive it still is especially taking into account the last thirty years of modern box office.

But when six movies are able hit the billion mark in one year, it is no longer as special and rare as it was the years before.
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But when six movies are able hit the billion mark in one year, it is no longer as special and rare as it was the years before.

 

Not necessarily. Just last year, 2014, we had ONE billion dollar grosser, Transformers. This year we may have six, I've got a wait and see approach on Hunger Games, Spectre, and Good Dinosaur. Star Wars is a given and would make it 5 for the year, a new record. Yes, a lot of that is thanks to China but 5 films with a possible 6 making a billion doesn't delude the accomplishment in my mind when I factor in the sheer amount of films released in a given year. According to this 2009 article Hollywood produced over 600 films a year. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/oct/18/hollywood-films-numbers-fall

 

Now they estimate it could fall to 400 in the future but I found articles in 2011 that had 500 films being produced, either way more or less now but assuming its the same, even if we get 6 billion dollar films that is literally 1% of all films released. And were just talking about domestic here not internationally.  

 

That to me is still special imo.

 

Though I do agree that the billion dollar plateau will not possible mean what it used to like say when Titanic, LOTR, Pirates, etc... hit that mark. Basically after 2008's the Dark Knight there have been 17 films that have crossed the mark. Before that you had officially 4 films, (Titanic, LOTR, Pirates, & Batman). Harry Potter 1 got close and it took a re-release to get films like Star Wars the Phantom Menace and Jurassic Park over the limit Officially even though with inflation we know what the score is. And thanks to Peludo can see where a lot of films measure up.  

 

But I think that can be said about any milestone in film. We've had 3 600 million dollar plus grossers in the past 6 years. Avatar, Avengers, and now Jurassic World. When in the previous twenty years we had one with Titanic. If Star Wars or whatever here hits 600 million plus I wouldn't start demoting the 600 million dollar mark nor would I do the same for the 400 million dollar mark, or the 300 million dollar mark, etc... It's just the changing of time and all the other factors of modern cinema ticket price inflation ;)

 

I think the most important thing to do is put it in perspective, specifically historical context (for example with or without China or 3D), without really degrading the accomplishment of current blockbusters. At least that's how I see it.

Edited by sensui
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Good debate... IMO, there is another key factor that we have not measured well. We look at China as the main change in OS figures, what it is true. But we have already asumed that there are many new markets with huge potential. But the reality is that 15 years ago, when HP or LOTR were starting, Latin America (Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela) and Asian markets(South Korea, Southeast countries like Indonesia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan,...) were not as big. All of them are in the same way new markets that old franchises did not have. If someone had told us 10 years ago that a movie would gross 60 million in Brazil or Mexico, or 40-50 million in Venezuela, or we would see 10 million admissions films regularly in S. Korea, we would had laughed at him. It is not just China, but many others markets that have grown A LOT, not just in inflation, but in potential admissions. It is just that China is extremely big, so we do not look at them so frequently.

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Well, F7 is about the same than Frozen if we exclude China. And Jurassic World is lower than Jurassic Park if we adjust by inflation. And that even with the $225m from China. Enormous films for sure, but not the biggest non-Cameron films ever if we consider all the conditions.

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23 minutes ago, Giesi said:

Does Star Wars still have a chance to hit the $2bn mark with these bad exchange rates?

The lists I have posted here take into account the current ER and 3D and, as you can see, Phantom Menace adjusts to about 1.75 billion (still working on a more definitive figure). You can take as a good example what has happened with Jurassic franchise this year. Jurassic Park adjusts a bit higher than what Jurassic World has done this year. IMHO, and following the same pattern, SW7 is probable to land somewhere between 1.5 and 1.6 billion. But you can not rule out anything.

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