Jump to content

Avatree

10 films over 700M in 2016?

Recommended Posts





1 hour ago, bruchav said:

No way that 2018 will beat 2017 in big movies numbers, but I think 2019 will be even bigger than 2017.

Agreed that 2019 will be bigger than this year. Hell, Disney alone might have close to or as many 1B worldwide makers than 2017 overall (and 2017 is gonna have at least four, potentially five if Justice League hits the high end of expectations). Star Wars Ep. IX, Avengers 4, The Lion King and Frozen 2 are as good as locks for 1B WW, and Aladdin and Toy Story 4 are contenders too (Aladdin is actually a very strong contender). Also think that Hobbs & Shaw is as close to lock for 1B as there is from the non-Disney stuff, while Bond 25 and The Secret Life Of Pets 2 have veeery strong 1B chances as well. As does Wonder Woman 2, if it actually stays in 2019 (which it probably won't; will likely be delayed to 2020). And even if none of those hit 1B, they are looking to at least 850M WW. Which is a good target for Spider-Man 2. Captain Marvel, Dumbo, It: Chapter 2 and Shazam! also looking at 650 to 700+ WW.

 

As for 2018, I think Infinity War and Fallen Kingdom will both hit 1B, but they might be the only ones to reach that mark. Incredibles 2 has a 1B shot, absolutely, but it's likelier for it to stall at 900M than for it to hit 1B imo. Solo will probably be the lowest Star Wars grosser WW since Revenge Of The Sith and may do around 870M WW. Deadpool 2, if it reaches beyond the ceiling, can make around Wonder Woman/Spider-Man '02 numbers (820 range). Beyond that, Mary Poppins Returns and Aquaman could be breakouts for the 800M range.... and that's about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Agreed that 2019 will be bigger than this year. Hell, Disney alone might have close to or as many 1B worldwide makers than 2017 overall (and 2017 is gonna have at least four, potentially five if Justice League hits the high end of expectations). Star Wars Ep. IX, Avengers 4, The Lion King and Frozen 2 are as good as locks for 1B WW, and Aladdin and Toy Story 4 are contenders too (Aladdin is actually a very strong contender). Also think that Hobbs & Shaw is as close to lock for 1B as there is from the non-Disney stuff, while Bond 25 and The Secret Life Of Pets 2 have veeery strong 1B chances as well. As does Wonder Woman 2, if it actually stays in 2019 (which it probably won't; will likely be delayed to 2020). And even if none of those hit 1B, they are looking to at least 850M WW. Which is a good target for Spider-Man 2. Captain Marvel, Dumbo, It: Chapter 2 and Shazam! also looking at 650 to 700+ WW.

 

As for 2018, I think Infinity War and Fallen Kingdom will both hit 1B, but they might be the only ones to reach that mark. Incredibles 2 has a 1B shot, absolutely, but it's likelier for it to stall at 900M than for it to hit 1B imo. Solo will probably be the lowest Star Wars grosser WW since Revenge Of The Sith and may do around 870M WW. Deadpool 2, if it reaches beyond the ceiling, can make around Wonder Woman/Spider-Man '02 numbers (820 range). Beyond that, Mary Poppins Returns and Aquaman could be breakouts for the 800M range.... and that's about it.

Frozen II needs another let it go and very good WOM. 

wow.. 2019 look overstuffed... Probably 2019 will be like summer 2015. Lots of scheduled blockbusters that wasn't released. Except for MI:5 that moved up for some reason. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites





22 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Agreed that 2019 will be bigger than this year. Hell, Disney alone might have close to or as many 1B worldwide makers than 2017 overall (and 2017 is gonna have at least four, potentially five if Justice League hits the high end of expectations). Star Wars Ep. IX, Avengers 4, The Lion King and Frozen 2 are as good as locks for 1B WW, and Aladdin and Toy Story 4 are contenders too (Aladdin is actually a very strong contender). Also think that Hobbs & Shaw is as close to lock for 1B as there is from the non-Disney stuff, while Bond 25 and The Secret Life Of Pets 2 have veeery strong 1B chances as well. As does Wonder Woman 2, if it actually stays in 2019 (which it probably won't; will likely be delayed to 2020). And even if none of those hit 1B, they are looking to at least 850M WW. Which is a good target for Spider-Man 2. Captain Marvel, Dumbo, It: Chapter 2 and Shazam! also looking at 650 to 700+ WW.

 

As for 2018, I think Infinity War and Fallen Kingdom will both hit 1B, but they might be the only ones to reach that mark. Incredibles 2 has a 1B shot, absolutely, but it's likelier for it to stall at 900M than for it to hit 1B imo. Solo will probably be the lowest Star Wars grosser WW since Revenge Of The Sith and may do around 870M WW. Deadpool 2, if it reaches beyond the ceiling, can make around Wonder Woman/Spider-Man '02 numbers (820 range). Beyond that, Mary Poppins Returns and Aquaman could be breakouts for the 800M range.... and that's about it.

I doubt that Captain Marvel or Shazam will reach $700m. and Dumbo $750m in 2019.

 

I also doubt that Aladdin will make $1bi, just because Beauty and the Beast did $1 bi. people think that all of these Disney live action will do the same, only Lion King has a good chance to make 1 billion of all these live action movies of Disney that are to come.

I do not think Toy Story 4 will make $1 bi either, people do not seem excited about this movie, and many think it should stop at Toy Story 3.

 

Hobbs & Shaw Close to $1 Bi? Lol, will be lucky if it hit $750m mark.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, DAJK said:

2019 is shaping up the same way we were all anticipating 2015 a few years ago.

I think we say that every year. 2016 will be UGE, 2017 will be UGE, 2018 will be U...

 

We'll see. Families just don't have enough money to see 3-5 movies a year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 minutes ago, raegr said:

I think we say that every year. 2016 will be UGE, 2017 will be UGE, 2018 will be U...

 

We'll see. Families just don't have enough money to see 3-5 movies a year. 

And 2017 is really huge, probably going to have 10 movies that made $800m +, I think it's a record.

2018 will not be big like 2017, but 2019 will be, with good chances of being even bigger than 2017.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, raegr said:

I think we say that every year. 2016 will be UGE, 2017 will be UGE, 2018 will be U...

 

We'll see. Families just don't have enough money to see 3-5 movies a year. 

Always thought 2016 would be a quieter year than 2015 (but it turned out ok). 2017 looked decent going in, has been disappointing for the most part with a few surprises. 2018 looks bleh outside of the May/June, November sections.

 

2019 just looks strong all around so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



51 minutes ago, bruchav said:

I doubt that Captain Marvel or Shazam will reach $700m. and Dumbo $750m in 2019.

 

I also doubt that Aladdin will make $1bi, just because Beauty and the Beast did $1 bi. people think that all of these Disney live action will do the same, only Lion King has a good chance to make 1 billion of all these live action movies of Disney that are to come.

I do not think Toy Story 4 will make $1 bi either, people do not seem excited about this movie, and many think it should stop at Toy Story 3.

 

Hobbs & Shaw Close to $1 Bi? Lol, will be lucky if it hit $750m mark.

Aladdin is one of Disney’s most beloved movies of the 90s, I think $1B can happen. Especially if Alice 1 got $1B and TJB got near it.

TS4 depends on exchange rates and excitement here but $1B seems unlikely.

Agreed on Hobbs and Shaw.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bruchav said:

I doubt that Captain Marvel or Shazam will reach $700m. and Dumbo $750m in 2019.

 

I also doubt that Aladdin will make $1bi, just because Beauty and the Beast did $1 bi. people think that all of these Disney live action will do the same, only Lion King has a good chance to make 1 billion of all these live action movies of Disney that are to come.

I do not think Toy Story 4 will make $1 bi either, people do not seem excited about this movie, and many think it should stop at Toy Story 3.

 

Hobbs & Shaw Close to $1 Bi? Lol, will be lucky if it hit $750m mark.

I didn't say CM and Shazam will make 700M, I said they will be in that range. 600M+ seems just about right for both. Dumbo I see around 700M. Burton drawing power is pretty noticeable, after all.

 

You underestimate Aladdin. It's one of the most popular Disney movies ever made. I think it might actually be more popular than BATB. It's certainly more four quadrant than BATB, and the original movie outgrossed it too (both unadjusted, unless you count lifetime gross for BATB and even then it's only by 1M, and especially adjusted). Granted, no one apart from Will Smith could potentially drive audiences like Emma Watson as Belle (I'm not saying Emma Watson is a draw, I'm saying that Emma Watson as Belle was a smart casting choice that definitely drew a lot of people in.... even if it came at the cost of getting a pretty piss poor singer to play Belle), but Aladdin kinda sells itself anyway.

 

TS4 definitely is the least likely of those big Disney movies to make 1B, and exchange rates do make it pretty difficult. BUT, if Disney can really sell it well, and if it delievers quality-wise, then it could happen, even if barely. Last year Finding Dory also had to fight awful exchange rates, but it got to 1B (granted, it made almost 500M DOM, but it is what it is). I do agree that it's not going to be bigger than TS3, and I 100% agree that it shouldn't even exist, though.

 

You are aware of the juggernaut success of the F&F movies, right? F8 made 1B OS alone, and that didn't have the Paul Walker effect driving it. And you are aware that The Rock, despite the Baywatch fiasco, is still a resonant name (as is Jason Statham when it comes to OS)? And if Minions can make more than any Despicable Me movie, and Rogue One can also make 1B in spite of the bad OS income, then I don't see even a spin-off of the king of OS franchises missing at least 800M.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



On 7/11/2017 at 3:54 PM, YourMother said:

Aladdin is one of Disney’s most beloved movies of the 90s, I think $1B can happen. Especially if Alice 1 got $1B and TJB got near it.

TS4 depends on exchange rates and excitement here but $1B seems unlikely.

Agreed on Hobbs and Shaw.

Alice only did $1 bi because Johnny Depp was a big star at the time and his character reminded Jack Sparrow, Lol, without Johnny Depp this movie would never have made $1 bi.

See the disaster that was the sequel because Johnny Depp is no longer popular these days like he is in 2010.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



On 7/11/2017 at 4:45 PM, MCKillswitch123 said:

I didn't say CM and Shazam will make 700M, I said they will be in that range. 600M+ seems just about right for both. Dumbo I see around 700M. Burton drawing power is pretty noticeable, after all.

 

You underestimate Aladdin. It's one of the most popular Disney movies ever made. I think it might actually be more popular than BATB. It's certainly more four quadrant than BATB, and the original movie outgrossed it too (both unadjusted, unless you count lifetime gross for BATB and even then it's only by 1M, and especially adjusted). Granted, no one apart from Will Smith could potentially drive audiences like Emma Watson as Belle (I'm not saying Emma Watson is a draw, I'm saying that Emma Watson as Belle was a smart casting choice that definitely drew a lot of people in.... even if it came at the cost of getting a pretty piss poor singer to play Belle), but Aladdin kinda sells itself anyway.

 

TS4 definitely is the least likely of those big Disney movies to make 1B, and exchange rates do make it pretty difficult. BUT, if Disney can really sell it well, and if it delievers quality-wise, then it could happen, even if barely. Last year Finding Dory also had to fight awful exchange rates, but it got to 1B (granted, it made almost 500M DOM, but it is what it is). I do agree that it's not going to be bigger than TS3, and I 100% agree that it shouldn't even exist, though.

 

You are aware of the juggernaut success of the F&F movies, right? F8 made 1B OS alone, and that didn't have the Paul Walker effect driving it. And you are aware that The Rock, despite the Baywatch fiasco, is still a resonant name (as is Jason Statham when it comes to OS)? And if Minions can make more than any Despicable Me movie, and Rogue One can also make 1B in spite of the bad OS income, then I don't see even a spin-off of the king of OS franchises missing at least 800M.

Rogue One made $1 bi because  made $ 500m domestic, Hobbs and Shaw will do what? $ 160m domestic? if you really think Hobbs and Shaw has a great chance of making $ 1 bi you'll be disappointed in 2019...I do not think  even Universal expects this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



38 minutes ago, bruchav said:

Alice only did $1 bi because Johnny Depp was a big star at the time and his character reminded Jack Sparrow, Lol, without Johnny Depp this movie would never have made $1 bi.

See the disaster that was the sequel because Johnny Depp is no longer popular these days like he is in 2010.

Still Aladdin is one of Disney most known movies. Not to mention Will Smith as Genie might help. I can easily see $1B.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



33 minutes ago, bruchav said:

Rogue One made $1 bi because  made $ 500m domestic, Hobbs and Shaw will do what? $ 160m domestic? if you really think Hobbs and Shaw has a great chance of making $ 1 bi you'll be disappointed in 2019...I do not think  even Universal expects this.

It made 500M DOM because it's a big franchise DOM. Just like F&F is a big franchise OS, and H&S will probably make north of 800M from OS alone. I'm saying, I think it's got a shot at 1B. Though I wouldn't be disappointed if it didn't make that much. Hell, I thought Transformers 5 was gonna make at least 700-800M when the 4th one made almost 1B OS alone, and its prospects fell by nearly 50%.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



I didn’t hear about the full 2019 film slate until like 2018.

 

Back in early 2017, the only 2019 movies I knew were releasing were A4, TS4, and Frozen 2. Then in 2018, I learned they were remaking TLK, Aladdin, and Dumbo, and I also learnt of Captain Marvel and the Wonder Woman sequel (which got delayed, naturally).

 

But 2019 is likely a year we will never see again for a long time. It looked like a bloodbath from the beginning. Like especially Disney releasing Aladdin, TS4, and TLK near each other. You’d think they’d cannibalize each other trying to each control the family market, but in the end TS4 didn’t dent Aladdin, and TLK didn’t dent TS4 (or Aladdin either). 

 

My original predictions back in Fall 2018 were something like this:

 

1. Avengers: Endgame- $260M OW; $700M DOM; $2.1B WW (underestimated all across the board)

 

2. The Lion King- $200M OW; $650M DOM; $1.6B WW (overestimated domestic by a little, while underestimating OS)
 

3. Star Wars: TROS- $200M OW; $640M DOM; $1.4B WW (overestimated by quite a bit, especially worldwide, I expected lower OW but better legs than Last Jedi on the domestic side)

 

4. Frozen 2- $115M OW; $450M DOM; $1.3B WW (I predicted bigger domestic, but relatively similar OS gross)

 

5. Toy Story 4- $125M OW; $430M DOM; $1.1B WW (I was actually fairly accurate with this one. The OW of $121M was off about 3% from my prediction so not too bad, but the multiplier was better.)

 

6. Captain Marvel- $140M OW; $380M DOM; $870M WW (I predicted a similar performance to GotG2; I was obviously off a lot worldwide)

 

7. Spider-Man: Far From Home- $120M OW; $360M DOM; $900M WW (I predicted slight increase domestic with relatively similar OS grosses, as well as it becoming the first CBM to finish in the $900M range, but this was before they moved the opening to a Tuesday)

 

8. The Secret Life of Pets 2- $80M OW; $325M DOM; $850M WW (Yep, I overestimated this one big time)

 

9. Jumanji: The Next Level- $70M OW; $300M DOM; $830M WW (I predicted bigger OW but worse legs)

 

Since I had #10 different for domestic and WW, I’ll do both

 

10 (dom). It: Chapter Two- $135M OW; $335M DOM, $750M WW (This one was an overestimate; I had it narrowly edging out Aladdin for the #10 slot in the US, with Aladdin taking the global #10 slot for the year)

 

10 (worldwide). Aladdin- $80M OW; $315M DOM, $820M WW (Yep, I slept on this one, mainly taking into account the bad first few trailers, as well as competition. But this was perhaps one of the biggest surprises of the year, along with Joker and Endgame beating Avatar.)

 

In the end, the results were:

 

Dom:

1. Avengers: Endgame- $357M; $858M

2. The Lion King- $192M; $544M

3. Star Wars: TROS- $177M; $515M

4. Frozen 2- $130M; $477M

5. Toy Story 4- $121M; $434M

6. Captain Marvel: $153M; $427M

7. Spider-Man: FFH- $93M ($185M 6-day since it opened on a Tuesday); $390M

8. Aladdin- $92M; $356M
9. Joker- $96M; $335M

10. Jumanji: The Next Level- $59M; $317M

 

WW:

1. Avengers: Endgame- $2.798B

2. The Lion King- $1.657B

3. Frozen 2- $1.450B

4. Spider-Man: FFH- $1.132B

5. Captain Marvel- $1.128B

6. Joker- $1.074B

7. Star Wars: TROS- $1.074B

8. Toy Story 3- $1.073B

9. Aladdin- $1.050B

10. Jumanji: The Next Level- $797M (sooo close to $800M, I blame it on COVID-19 halting grosses)

 

I blame COVID-19 for halting grosses due to closing of theaters. Had there not been COVID-19, Frozen 2 would’ve likely stretched to $480M, Jumanji: The Next Level would’ve just crossed the $800M finish line like Coco did, and TROS might (I said might) have barely passed Joker.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.