Listen to ShawnMR on Movie Moan's Summer 2015 Box Office Predictions Spectacular

[Goffe]

Why adjusted?  

because they are not released in the same year? 

[Dementeleus]

because they are not released in the same year? 

 

But you're using adjusted to somehow claim a dollar value. It doesn't work like that. If you want to make some sort of admissions-based argument, okay, but it's essentially meaningless in the context of the US box-office.

[Goffe]

I was making some calculations

how much sequels increased (or decreased) from first films, and I came up with this

 

First films that grossed less than 400m adjusted

 

Narnia -56%

Star Trek  -29%

Hobbit -17%

Hangover -15%

Iron Man -11%

M:I -2%

Transformers +16%

Matrix   +38%

Despicable Me +44%

Shrek +50%

TDK +133%       

 

First films that grossed that grossed around 400-500m adjusted

 

BTTF -50%

MIB -40%

Rocky -38%

Batman -38%

Superman -31%

HP  -20%

Hunger Games 0%

LOTR     +5%

Pirates +28% 

 

First films that grossed that grossed around 500-600m adjusted

 

Beverly Hills Cop -41%

Home Alone -38%

Spider-Man  -13%

 

First films that grossed more than 600m adjusted

 

Jaws -74%

Star Wars -45% 

Jurassic Park -42% 

Prequels -39%

Indiana Jones -31%

Edited April 8, 2015 by Goffe

[Dementeleus]

But again, unless you're trying to make a point about admissions, using adjusted figures is kinda meaningless here.

[BadAtGender]

But again, unless you're trying to make a point about admissions, using adjusted figures is kinda meaningless here.

 

Moreso because we're talking about films in the 3D era. So admissions and adjusted numbers are pretty fraught with error.

 

Part of the reason AoU is likely to decrease from Avengers is falling 3D share. That's probably accounted for in people who are projecting a 20% drop.

[baumer]

And?

 

You mean you don't spend a couple hours dicking around the internet or browsing these very forums?  I'm listening to it right now.

 

I listened to the whole thing last year.  It's worth it.  

[Lordmandeep]

Moreso because we're talking about films in the 3D era. So admissions and adjusted numbers are pretty fraught with error.

 

Part of the reason AoU is likely to decrease from Avengers is falling 3D share. That's probably accounted for in people who are projecting a 20% drop.

 

 

However people should remember tickets are more expensive then 3 years past. 

[Vanilla]

I feel like the summer all together was low-balled in this podcast. Good listen tho. 

[Blankments]

Listening to it now - They compared Mad Max to Fifty Shades of Grey... TELE!!!

[Dementeleus]

Listening to it now - They compared Mad Max to Fifty Shades of Grey... TELE!!!

50 Shades of Max... I'll take that domestic total.

[Blankments]

Just finished; it was good stuff. Really fun to hear too!

[filmnerdjamie]

Sub $500M total ain't so laughable now, huh?

[keysersoze123]

Very good call :-)

[Chewy]

500m is an outrageous total for any movie and it's completely feasible that it could miss it. Not sure how or why people have talked themselves into thinking that's impossible

[keysersoze123]

Well, Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones were both huge letdowns. At the very least, Avengers 1 was a massive WOM crowdpleaser. I don't see Ultron dropping over $100 million domestically unless the film is horrible. 

 

I see $215-230 million OW, with a $560-640 million DOM total. 

 

Under $500 million would require Avengers 2 being just plain terrible. Maybe in 2014, Avengers 2 would have only done $475 million, but 2015 has shown it's going to rebound from last year in a big way so far (Sniper, SpongeBob 2/Kingsman/50 Shades, Home, Cinderella (relative to Peabody and Muppets during last March), Furious 7, etc) 

 

 

The issue with the AOU projection is that they are treating AOU like it was an time hit like Star Wars or Raiders or Jurassic Park or TPM.

 

When in reality it was as big as Spiderman 1 in terms of ticket sales.

 

Therefore the idea that an all time hit sequel must decline by 20-30%, no longer holds any value. 

 

 

It should be compared to recent major sequels.

 

TA did not make an impossibile amount of money compared to the current market, it just vastly overperformed.

 

Films are quite capable of similar grosses (500+) but it is that similar appealing films have not released hence.

 

 

I just do not see how the Avengers 2 makes under 600m.

 

LOL

[filmnerdjamie]

LOL

 

All for contrary opinions. But several here (by no means, not all) were outright dicks and refused to consider our reasoning behind our predictions. To those, yes, I will point and laugh in their faces.

[Lordmandeep]

Lol all I said is based on todays ticket prices films can make 500 million and should be more.

 

 

However seems like since TDKR nothing that appealing has come out.

[keysersoze123]

I LOL'd Dex mainly. At last Dex Curse worked.

[Dementeleus]

I still think Dex was playing a long con.

[Jandrew]

So much crow in the first few pages lol. But of course 97% of you wont come back and admit you were wrong and cocky.