Listen to ShawnMR on Movie Moan's Summer 2015 Box Office Predictions Spectacular

[Ethan Hunt]

I think generally these predictions are just really conservative.

[ddddeeee]

I went into this year expecting Jurassic World to be in the same league as The Avengers 2 and Minions for this summer. But that footage, man...

Yep, looks shit.

[Walt Disney]

For all of you laughing hysterically at the podcast predicts, those guys on occasion absolutely nail a movie... especially one that's driven by lots of online fan buzz.

So.... beware.

 

Everyone occasionally nails one. That Kal Avatar prediction is legendary and I wasn't even on the Mojo boards when it happened.

 

Edit: Although, I would listen to a BKB and Kal podcast special.

Edited April 7, 2015 by Walt Disney

[Ethan Hunt]

Yep, looks shit.

You people insane

[Chewy]

500m is an outrageous total for any movie and it's completely feasible that it could miss it. Not sure how or why people have talked themselves into thinking that's impossible

[filmnerdjamie]

Yep, looks shit.

 

No, not shit. Just... generic. We waited 10+ years for a new Jurassic Park movie and I'm just not crazy about what I've seen so far. Still hopeful but very reserved.

Edited April 7, 2015 by filmnerdjamie

[MrPink]

I would say it's not likely to miss 500m, unless external factors come into play or the movie is not good. TDKR percentage drop would still put TA2 above 500m.

[Noctis]

The last trailer for AoU was terrrrrrible.

Why make it a minute and a half of naming each SH and having them say a supposedly "witty" one-liner? Ridiculous.

[Chewy]

The last trailer for AoU was terrrrrrible.

Why make it a minute and a half of naming each SH and having them say a supposedly "witty" one-liner? Ridiculous.

 

That's not a trailer for theaters, it's just being used as one of those video banners on websites

[Lordmandeep]

The last trailer for AoU was terrrrrrible.

Why make it a minute and a half of naming each SH and having them say a supposedly "witty" one-liner? Ridiculous.

 

 

 

Imo the box office logic favors the 500 + crowd, the sub 500 million predicts are just pessimism  really. 

 

 

Are people expecting a Im3 multiplier or something? 

Edited April 7, 2015 by Lordmandeep

[Noctis]

Imo the box office logic favors the 500 + crowd, the sub 500 million predicts are just pessimism  really.

Logic is actually much more in favor of TA2 missing 500m altogether when looking at the box office for franchises at their peaks.

520m has been my prediction for ages. But we'll see.

[Deep Wang]

Forbidden Woods? Yeah....good luck finding your way out.

 

Yeah, you aren't kidding!

[Noctis]

When dealing with what's about to come, there is no box office logic anymore than there was with TA in 2012 and it defied box office logic then, and it will do it one more time in 2015.. Embrace it folks.. It's gonna happen..

You talk a lot but how about actually giving us a number?

[Ozymandias]

Chris Pratt and his raptor squad is gonna win the summer.

[John Marston]

Logic is actually much more in favor of TA2 missing 500m altogether when looking at the box office for franchises at their peaks.

520m has been my prediction for ages. But we'll see.

Not really. Giving it the same drops other big sequels had still puts it over 500m

[Noctis]

Close to 230M OW and an overall finish Domestically at just over 650M..

650m is impossible.

[Lordmandeep]

Logic is actually much more in favor of TA2 missing 500m altogether when looking at the box office for franchises at their peaks.

520m has been my prediction for ages. But we'll see.

 

 

You cannot use small sequels as a comparison, you have to use sequels to recent all the time hits only. 

 

The only sequel that gives it a similar  drop is Pirates 2 to Pirates 3.

 

Now pirates 3 faced competition of insane nature and faced fatigue, if it released in July like Pirates 2, I think we all agree it would have done much better. It also faced issues of quality of part 2 and part 3. 

 

 

 

My point is many factors come into play for a sequel to increase and decrease.

 

it does not happen magically. Its not some rule of physics, massive all time hits must fall 20+%. 

Edited April 7, 2015 by Lordmandeep

[Noctis]

No one would've imagined TA making 623M Domestic and 1.5B WW.. It's happening.. Embrace it.. It's easy..

Nah.

[Walt Disney]

Logic is actually much more in favor of TA2 missing 500m altogether when looking at the box office for franchises at their peaks.

520m has been my prediction for ages. But we'll see.

 

If we're using Domestic adjusted numbers, Spider-Man 2 dropped about 14% from Spider-Man. Using unadjusted numbers, the drop was about 9%. We can all agree that Spider-Man was the peak of the Spider-Man franchise to date. I'm just not seeing the logic that you're talking about.

[Noctis]

You cannot use small sequels as a comparison, you have to use sequels to recent all the time hits only. 

 

The only sequel that gives it a similar  drop is Pirates 2 to Pirates 3.

 

Now pirates 3 faced competition of insane nature and faced fatigue, if it released in July like Pirates 2, I think we all agree it would have done much better. It also faced issues of quality of part 2 and part 3. 

 

 

 

My point is many factors come into play for a sequel to increase and decrease.

 

it does not happen magically.

Who said anything about magic? Last I remember, I've always been very realistic in practically everything.

Pirates is a horrible example to use. I was thinking about Potter, Star Wars, Jurassic Park, etc.