Listen to ShawnMR on Movie Moan's Summer 2015 Box Office Predictions Spectacular

[Darth Homer]

I was wrong. I was so wrong.

Edited October 14, 2015 by Darth Homer

[Neo]

Lordmandeep what is your AOU OW predict?

[CJohn]

I have heard it all. Absolutely agree with the guys saying Pan is getting delayed. I bet they are gonna try October. Either that or something around MLK weekend/President's Day weekend.

Edited April 7, 2015 by CJohn

[mahnamahna]

Here's why any sub-500 prediction for TA2 is nuts - it would mean it does less than 80% of the business of the first movie. Here are some superhero blockbuster sequels that dropped more than 20% from their predecessor:

 

ASM (did 77% of SM3's gross)

ASM 2 (did 77% of ASM's grsss)

XMO: W (did 76% of XM3's gross)

B&R (did 58% of BF's gross)

 

Notice a pattern? They're all either terrible or following movies that were terrible/had mixed reactions. TA2 is much more likely to fall in the TDKR, SM2, IM2 range (i.e. 83-98% of their predecessor's gross). Hell, even SM3 did 90% of SM2's box office. Does anyone seriously think TA2 will have a worse reception than SM3?

This^^^ 

 

Avengers 2, if anything, should get better reception than the first in terms of story/writing/action. The humor will probably be less than the original due to the humorous tone. 

[Dementeleus]

This^^^ 

 

Avengers 2, if anything, should get better reception than the first in terms of story/writing/action. The humor will probably be less than the original due to the humorous tone. 

 

And yet SM2 decreased 7-8% from SM1 despite (1) the first movie being a well-received juggernaut and (2) SM2 getting an even better critical/fan reception than the first.

[Dementeleus]

Different world back then compared to now.. No Twitter or Facebook back then, otherwise, things might've ended up differently..

 

Are you saying that somehow WOM was unable to spread over the course of the entire summer?

[Neo]

Are you saying that somehow WOM was unable to spread over the course of the entire summer?

Not as fast.

[DAR]

Watched up until Tomorrowland while on the treadmill.

[John Marston]

And yet SM2 decreased 7-8% from SM1 despite (1) the first movie being a well-received juggernaut and (2) SM2 getting an even better critical/fan reception than the first.

That decrease still puts Avengers 2 well over 500

[Dementeleus]

Not as fast.

 

Well, yeah, but I wasn't talking about the OW, just about domestic total.

[Dementeleus]

That decrease still puts Avengers 2 well over 500

 

But I'm not predicting a sub-500 total either.

[Lordmandeep]

I see TA2 at 210 million OW.

 

I am staying a coward and waiting for intial overseas numbers first before making a real prediction. 

 

I expect if the film is good and great buzz it will explode excitement to new heights like last time.

 

 

They are starting the media blitz and I keep seeing tv spot and new feature and trailer on Youtube and Facebook every day.

 

I fully expect by May 1st this film will be in everyone face. 

 

 

Also Tele I think a Spiderman 2 reaction would be amazing result in terms of quality and box office for this film. That is actually what I am predicting for this film. 

That would mean opening weekend record would be broken, gross well over 560 million, great reaction from fans and audience and with much bigger overseas markets compared to the past third highest grossing film of all time WW.

 

 

The shocking thing is that this could do sub 500 million domestic and still end up as the third highest grossing film WW ever . 

Edited April 7, 2015 by Lordmandeep

[Neo]

I see TA2 at 210 million OW.

 

I am staying a coward and waiting for intial overseas numbers first before making a real prediction. 

 

I expect if the film is good and great buzz it will explode excitement to new heights like last time.

 

 

They are starting the media blitz and I keep seeing tv spot and new feature and trailer on Youtube and Facebook every day.

 

I fully expect by May 1st this film will be in everyone face. 

Will close my AOU predictions when the first OS #'s start rolling in.

Edited April 7, 2015 by Neo

[Dementeleus]

I see TA2 at 210 million OW.

 

I am staying a coward and waiting for intial overseas numbers first before making a real prediction. 

 

I expect if the film is good and great buzz it will explode excitement to new heights like last time.

 

 

They are starting the media blitz and I keep seeing tv spot and new feature and trailer on Youtube and Facebook every day.

 

I fully expect by May 1st this film will be in everyone face. 

 

 

Also Tele I think a Spiderman 2 reaction would be amazing result in terms of quality and box office for this film.

That would mean opening weekend record would be broken, gross well over 550 million, great reaction from fans and audience and with much bigger overseas markets compared to the past third highest grossing film of all time WW.

 

 

The shocking thing is that this could do sub 500 million domestic and still end up as the third highest grossing film WW ever . 

 

I don't think you can really apply SM2 to SM1's OW in either a positive or negative way. Apples and oranges.

[Neo]

30M previews 100M OD 72M SAT 58M SUN 230M OW X 2.68M 616M DOM

 

Can it miss this. Have to start if from previews? TDK to TDKR jump, then an 11% jump on previews from TA's. Small increase on Saturday and a 20ish% drop on Sunday. Give it a sub 2.7X and you get 616M.

[Lordmandeep]

I don't think you can really apply SM2 to SM1's OW in either a positive or negative way. Apples and oranges.

 

 

I think its fair assumption to SM2 opened far bigger then SM1.

 

Taking films that over over 5-6 days and comparing to a 3-day weekend is flawed but you can make a trend. 

[Dementeleus]

I think its fair assumption to SM2 opened far bigger then SM1.

 

Taking films that over over 5-6 days and comparing to a 3-day weekend is flawed but you can make a trend. 

 

I think it's debatable whether it would've squeezed enough into the three days to definitively beat the OW. It's possible, sure, but I don't see how we can truly argue one or the other.

[RobinHood26]

170m for JW 

DA FUQ

[filmnerdjamie]

I am stunned Spy got skipped. That thing is gonna do over 150M. I am hearing the podcast right now. I am in Ant-Man. 

 

Honestly wasn't enough time/room. But I agree it'll do in that area.

[Avatree]

170m for JW 

DA FUQ

Yeah out of all the predictions, that is the most ridiculous. It's got a way higher chance of doing 170M on OW than it has doing only 170M dom.