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filmnerdjamie

Listen to ShawnMR on Movie Moan's Summer 2015 Box Office Predictions Spectacular

By filmnerdjamie, in Box Office Discussion

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Talkie Blockbuster

Talkie

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FYI Shawn wont put outlandish numbers. I think as part of BO.com he has access to tracking data. Plus he has been among the most consistent prognosticators from the time I knew him at BOM forums. Combination of that there is some method. But like anything predictions can go wrong.

I don't know about that. Remember the rather infamous Star Trek Into Darkness over Iron Man 3 thread? Shawn's predictions seemed more based on gut feelings instead of tracking and the actual box office potential of each film. There are other examples, as well. No disrespect to Shawn, but on the big films he has missed the mark on occasion, like all of us.

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junkshop36 Blockbuster

junkshop36

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Three of those TA2 predicts have it dropping 131m, 138m and 144m from the first movie. DA FUQ!

 

That's more than AOTC dropped from TPM. We all know good and well why that dropped so much and it had very little to do with the old "sequels always drop from the first movie" idea.

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BadAtGender Global Phenomenon

BadAtGender

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Three of those TA2 predicts have it dropping 131m, 138m and 144m from the first movie. DA FUQ!

 

That's more than AOTC dropped from TPM. We all know good and well why that dropped so much and it had very little to do with the old "sequels always drop from the first movie" idea.

 

Higher dollar value but lower percentage. All of those are in the range of a 20% drop, which is reasonable.

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Kvikk Lunsj Global Phenomenon

Kvikk Lunsj

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Yeah out of all the predictions, that is the most ridiculous. It's got a way higher chance of doing 170M on OW than it has doing only 170M dom.

Avengers 2 prediction is the most ridiculous thing ever. Edited by Snoopy of Suburbia
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Deep Wang Global Phenomenon

Deep Wang

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Three of those TA2 predicts have it dropping 131m, 138m and 144m from the first movie. DA FUQ!

 

That's more than AOTC dropped from TPM. We all know good and well why that dropped so much and it had very little to do with the old "sequels always drop from the first movie" idea.

 

AOTC also didn't have as far to fall from either.

 

There are plenty of cases where a first sequel made more than it's predecessor.  But as we all know, Catching Fire was the first follow up to a $400m movie to do so, and it barely made it.  

 

We are talking about a movie that made $215m MORE than Hunger Games did.  You could fit all but the top 131 grossing films in that space between them!  

Edited by Boner Omega
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JohnnyGossamer Global Phenomenon

JohnnyGossamer

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And yet SM2 decreased 7-8% from SM1 despite (1) the first movie being a well-received juggernaut and (2) SM2 getting an even better critical/fan reception than the first.

This is honestly the most likely scenario. Increase OW (Spidey 2 would have had it opened on a Friday) and a decrease overall DOM.

That's I have the OW in the $215M to $230M range and the overall DOM in the $565M to $595M range.

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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My top 50 for summer 2015

 

1.       Avengers – Age of Ultron: $645 million

2.       Jurassic World: $405 million

3.       Minions: $375 million

4.       Inside Out: $330 million

5.       Pixels: $240 million

6.       Mission Impossible – Rogue Nation: $225 million

7.       Pitch Perfect 2: $210 million

8.       Spy: $205 million

9.       Tomorrowland: $185 million

10.   Ant-Man: $175 million

11.   Ted 2: $165 million

12.   The Fantastic Four: $145 million

13.   Trainwreck: $140 million

14.   Terminator – Genysis: $135 million

15.   Vacation: $130 million

16.   Straight Outta Compton: $115 million

17.   Ricki and the Flash: $105 million

18.   Paper Towns: $100 million

19.   The Gallows: $95 million

20.   Mad Max – Fury Road: $90 million

21.   The Man From UNCLE: $85 million

22.   Pan: $80 million

23.   San Andreas: $75 million

24.   Poltergeist: $70 million 

25.   Magic Mike XXL: $65 million

26.   Insidious 3: $60 million

27.   Hot Pursuit: $45 million

28.   Kitchen Sink: $40 million

29.   Southpaw: $30 million

30.   Sinister 2: $30 million

31.   Max: $30 million

32.   Aloha: $25 million

33.   Hitman – Agent 47: $25 million

34.   Masterminds: $25 million

35.   Entourage: $20 million

36.   Me Before You: $20 million

37.   Self/Less: $20 million

38.   The Transporter Refueled: $20 million

39.   War Room: $20 million

40.   Before I Wake: $15 million

41.   Jane Got a Gun: $15 million

42.   The Outskirts: $15 million

43.   Underdogs: $15 million

44.   Regression: $15 million

45.   The Gift: $10 million

46.   No Escape: $10 million

47.   Dope: $10 million

48.   Criminal: $10 million

49.   She’s Funny That Way: $10 million 

50.   The Bronze: $10 million 

Welp, if we're really gonna do this

 

  1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - 583M
  2. Minions - 311M
  3. Jurassic World - 272M
  4. Inside Out - 267M
  5. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - 239M
  6. Pixels - 224M
  7. Ant-Man - 221M
  8. Fantastic Four - 190M
  9. Ted 2 - 184M
  10. Spy - 175M
  11. Terminator: Genisys - 161M
  12. Pitch Perfect 2 - 156M
  13. San Andreas - 145M
  14. The Man From U.N.C.L.E. - 144M
  15. Magic Mike XXL - 116M
  16. Tomorrowland - 112M
  17. Paper Towns - 111M
  18. Mad Max: Fury Road - 104M
  19. Vacation - 102M
  20. The Gallows - 95M
  21. Trainwreck - 89M
  22. Pan - 87M
  23. Straight Outta Compton - 86M
  24. Aloha - 85M
  25. Insidious Chapter 3 - 83M
  26. Ricki and the Flash - 78M
  27. Hot Pursuit - 74M
  28. Self/Less - 63M
  29. Masterminds - 61M
  30. Entourage - 55M
  31. Sinister 2 - 52M
  32. Poltergeist - 51M
  33. Max - 45M
  34. Before I Wake - 44M
  35. Hitman: Agent 47 - 39M
  36. Southpaw - 37M
  37. Regression - 32MMe Before You - 29M
  38. Dope - 28M
  39. Criminal - 26M
  40. The Gift - 16M
  41. Underdogs - 10M
  42. She's Funny That Way - 8M
  43. The Outskirts - 6M
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Dementeleus Cinematic Universe

Dementeleus

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Posted

The entire month of May is open.. That pretty well means it's open season on the box office and it's going to make an absolute killing that weekend, more than anyone could possible fathom.. It's coming Old man.. Embrace it.. :P 

 

Unlike you, I think 500m+ is "an absolute killing". :)

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