water Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 i hate to say i told you so but...DR HELEN CHO IS NEVER WRONG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Yes I was. And just like that, I lowered to $178 million. Imagine that! We'll see. That's why I like to see reactions from people here if it makes way less. Yea, I kinda find it hard to imagine that, because it doesn't really make any sense. Unless you're just riding the two extremes of the range just to be contrarian. But hey, more power to you, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 All I know is this. If you assume the IMAX $50m would have been more like $29m without the extra IMAX premium (I'm assuming 75% higher for IMAX vs. regular), TDK makes $512m. SM1 adjusted to 2008 average price is $498m. You don't think SM1 potentially had enough extra child tickets to bridge the $14m gap between them? The two of them are very close and it's quite possible SM1 was bigger. That said, TDK was a dark ass movie and it's impressive as hell to get that many adults to show up for it...especially after BB made almost 3 times less. I have SM1 adjusting to 486M, by 2008 we have 3D/IMAX providing a slight influence to the average ticket price - obviously not post-09 levels but enough that the average ticket price comparison between 02/08 is not 1:1. Still, even accounting for children's tickets I don't see it as definitive (did you see my post on the last page)? Unless we ever get the actual data, there isn't enough evidence suggesting that the children ticket ratio gap is big enough that SM1 would be firmly ahead or even on par. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilmBuff Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 You act like the bigger midnights is a good thing, it's not at all. The exact opposite. Sequels are always going to have a higher rush factor. That's common sense. It's not dropping on Saturday that much. Goes against the history of MCU movies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 RDJ on indie movies “...they’re exhausting and sometimes they suck and then you just go, ‘What was I thinking?’ " Downey Jr. explained about why he wouldn't sign up for an independent film. "But I’m interested in doing all different kinds of movies. Sometimes the little movies are the ones that wind up taking the most out of you because they’re like, ‘Hey, man, we’re just running a couple of days behind. Do you think you can stay through your birthday and then come back on the fourth of July. And, by the way, but, like, the crew — can you pay for the craft services? And, oh, by the way, man, when we go to Sundance, it’s like, can we just sit you in a chair and you can sell this for six days in a row so that we’ll make 180 bucks when it opens in one theater?’” he continued warming up to his subject, pretending to be an indie moviemaker. And then caps it off with his own rejoinder. “Actually, most of you are kind of inexperienced and lame,” he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Disney Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 If this ends up hitting $200M, then the turning point of the weekend will be when Shawn came here to explain his prediction of $200M-210M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VGPOP Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 (edited) Yea, I kinda find it hard to imagine that, because it doesn't really make any sense. Unless you're just riding the two extremes of the range just to be contrarian. But hey, more power to you, I guess. It has nothing to do with that. When I am giving actual estimates and not just projections, all extreme/pessimist prediction goes out the window, and I focus on what the movie truly value in terms of box office. I really believe this movie will not even stay flat from Friday's numbers. It will decrease. People are saying you can do two things at once (like watching a major boxing event and going to the movies). I don't. Plus, there are more sporting events for today Saturday (Kentucky derby, game 7 in NBA playoffs). It's like a big storm all together. People say whatever they want that this won't affect the number. I don't agree to that. I really believe Thursday's previews (outgrossing the original midnight movie by $8 million) and Friday decreasing value (compared to original) will make Saturday's number way less than Friday's. Add sporting events in this country and you get a killer day. But what do I know?....It's just my observation. Edited May 2, 2015 by VGPOP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cynosure Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 (edited) RDJ on indie movies “...they’re exhausting and sometimes they suck and then you just go, ‘What was I thinking?’ " Downey Jr. explained about why he wouldn't sign up for an independent film. "But I’m interested in doing all different kinds of movies. Sometimes the little movies are the ones that wind up taking the most out of you because they’re like, ‘Hey, man, we’re just running a couple of days behind. Do you think you can stay through your birthday and then come back on the fourth of July. And, by the way, but, like, the crew — can you pay for the craft services? And, oh, by the way, man, when we go to Sundance, it’s like, can we just sit you in a chair and you can sell this for six days in a row so that we’ll make 180 bucks when it opens in one theater?’” he continued warming up to his subject, pretending to be an indie moviemaker. And then caps it off with his own rejoinder. “Actually, most of you are kind of inexperienced and lame,” he said. He'll only accept indie movies with spanish subs. Edited May 2, 2015 by Cynosure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
water Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 everyone makes mistakes. rth is not this "god" you guys claim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 It was all pre-sales and no walk up business. Opposite of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Jedi Master 007 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Wow that estimate went down by a lot. WWW thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pensivepenguin Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 What time is the fight tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superduperm Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 When can we know some Saturday projections? It's now 1:00pm in ET. We never hear anything about Saturday until the wee hours of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cory Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 In the past 20 years it's Titanic -------- The Phantom Menace -------- Avatar – Shrek 2 – TDK – Spider-Man – Independence Day ------- Avengers – Dead Man's Chest ------- Nemo – ROTK – SM2 – TPOTC – ROTS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pensivepenguin Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 We never hear anything about Saturday until the wee hours of the night. And even then, maybe Rth won't give us any early numbers tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
water Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 noctis i can't believe you the great harry potter stan accepted defeat so easily even when me, gitesh, and dr. helen cho were saying it would do sub-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 What time is the fight tonight? Starts around 11-11:30 eastern, 8 pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandrew Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 While 84M is still the second biggest number ever, it is kinda shocking to wake up to after all the hype last night. I won't gloat and gloat if my 195 comes true, but i will say I hope this weekend has taught us to keep things in perspective. $250M OW??? 650 totals? Didn't someone create an Age of Ultron all time club? We have to predict with more insight and less fanyboyism. Everyone would love to see a big flashy 250M OW, but seriously, going from 207 to 250 in a 3 year span? No matter how much a movie is loved, we know that's not going to happen. And it shouldve always been obvious that this beating TA1 was always going to be a bigggggggggggg stretch. Same with TDK to Rises. People want to keep going on about the shooting (you really should let it go, peoples lives were more important than BO numbers), but without it, Rises still wouldn't have came close to TDK. TDK and TA set impossible bars. You could even say the same about SM1. You have to use more real world logic and metric. And you have to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. For a lot of you, under 200M was a ZERO percent possibility. You can't do that. You still have to assume it could happen, while hoping for over 200M. None of us are physic, but we all understand anything can go, so lets act like it. And people also have to remember that nothing is official, till its official. You may turn in you exam paper at 6PM, but the professor isn't gonna due anything with it until 12, when its officially due. President Cheeto may win the preliminary votes, but until they do recounts and all precincts are closed, nothing is official, President Llama can still win. I love RTH, Deadline, Variety, etc, but you have to remember theyre all still estimates. Don't mock RTH for being so far off, he never said it was 100%, so we can't keep taking it as so. Once Mojo post the number or Exhibitor send outs the tweet: you can lock and seal it. Oh well. So no one should see this is as disappointing. #2 opening of all time, that's uh...really solid. Problem is you have to put things in perspective, and predict and expect with the real world, not what numbers you want to see. Hopefully this will carry on to BvS, SW7 ($200m OW in December predicts, really? Here we go again), all other Marvels, Hunger Games, Bond, Fast, etc. Big numbers are fun, but having a little more sense would suck out some of the disappointment and pessimism that we seem to see repeated. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Previews as a % of Friday gross: TA - 30.1% IM3 - 29.3% CA2 - 38.2% AOU - 48.5% CA2 jumped 30% on Saturday, and it's the closest to AOU in terms of opening day dynamics, so perhaps there's a major uptick in demand today (though the sporting events will dull the evening somewhat). How are sellouts looking today around the nation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilmBuff Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 In the past 20 years it's Titanic -------- The Phantom Menace -------- Avatar – Shrek 2 – TDK – Spider-Man – Independence Day ------- Avengers – Dead Man's Chest ------- Nemo – ROTK – SM2 – TPOTC – ROTS I'd have Avatar on the same level of PM. Avengers, Spiderman, and TDK all even, but below Independence day. Shrek 2 right below those 4. Titanic is in a class of it's own. Nemo, ROTK, ROTS, and etc are well below those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
