AVENGERS Official Wknd Estimates: 191M - Disney

[doublejack]

I understand what you're trying to say (I don't entirely agree with it). I do agree with the theory IM3 received the biggest boost from TA1 as the first MCU movie released after May 2012.

 

Between SM1 and SM2, which other movies did Spidey appear in? How about Batman between B89 and Batman Returns? None, right?

 

Now do the breakdown on the characacters in TA1. The Hulk is the only one that didn't appear in a major feature film between TA1 and TA2.

 

We have the benefit of hindsight, but the signs were there that TA2 would open lower than TA1. IM3, T:TDW and CA3 all let some of the air out, and there was nearly zero build-up to TA2. We saw a glimpse of Loki's spear and the twins in a mid credits scene of CA3. That is literally all we got.

 

Now, that said I think there are a pair of movies we can hope for record breaking numbers from - IW1 and IW2. I'm hesitant to say that either or both *should* break records, mostly because it's been split into two films. However, with years of build-up the showdown with Thanos should, in theory, bring everyone out to the theater.

 

There is another factor I'll bring up - TA2 is far darker than TA1. It is not the same family friendly movie. My wife had to leave the theather with our six year old about 30 minutes into TA2 because she was too scared to say. Loki is not exactly menacing, whereas Ultron is nightmare inducing for little ones. That is going to seriously effect the run, IMO. I'm thinking TA2 is going to track way more like IM3 than like TA1. Huge opening day, big opening weekend, and stubby little legs.

[kayumanggi]

FURIOUS 7 took in $6.64M this weekend. Domestic total stands at $331.07M. #Furious7 #OneLastRide

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

May 4, 2015

[redfirebird2008]

Between SM1 and SM2, which other movies did Spidey appear in? How about Batman between B89 and Batman Returns? None, right?

 

 

 

I got it the first time you posted this. I just don't entirely agree that it's as big of an issue as you think it is.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Between SM1 and SM2, which other movies did Spidey appear in? How about Batman between B89 and Batman Returns? None, right?

 

Now do the breakdown on the characacters in TA1. The Hulk is the only one that didn't appear in a major feature film between TA1 and TA2.

 

We have the benefit of hindsight, but the signs were there that TA2 would open lower than TA1. IM3, T:TDW and CA3 all let some of the air out, and there was nearly zero build-up to TA2. We saw a glimpse of Loki's spear and the twins in a mid credits scene of CA3. That is literally all we got.

 

Now, that said I think there are a pair of movies we can hope for record breaking numbers from - IW1 and IW2. I'm hesitant to say that either or both *should* break records, mostly because it's been split into two films. However, with years of build-up the showdown with Thanos should, in theory, bring everyone out to the theater.

 

There is another factor I'll bring up - TA2 is far darker than TA1. It is not the same family friendly movie. My wife had to leave the theather with our six year old about 30 minutes into TA2 because she was too scared to say. Loki is not exactly menacing, whereas Ultron is nightmare inducing for little ones. That is going to seriously effect the run, IMO. I'm thinking TA2 is going to track way more like IM3 than like TA1. Huge opening day, big opening weekend, and stubby little legs.

Well, Iron Man Three's weekends actually were great for money. The weekdays, as in, adult audiences, weren't as receptive.

[ecstasy]

You nailed the prediction. You were around 190, right? Great job.

 

Aw it was close give or take a mil or two $189.5. Grim and others were closer I think.  But thank you anyway.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Ecstasy

[JohnnyGossamer]

I got it the first time you posted this. I just don't entirely agree that it's as big of an issue as you think it is.

I really think the boxing match was a bigger impact than many expected. Without it, it probably grosses $200M+ OW. I mean, even though it's not record breaking, it's still absolutely ridiculous to open two films over $200M OW. If it comes up just $8M or $9M short of that number, I think that's proven. People spent more money/time on Mayweather/Pac that otherwise would've ventured to see Ultron Saturday afternoon/evening or Sunday afternoon.

[ecstasy]

I really think the boxing match was a bigger impact than many expected. Without it, it probably grosses $200M+ OW. I mean, even though it's not record breaking, it's still absolutely ridiculous to open two films over $200M OW. If it comes up just $8M or $9M short of that number, I think that's proven. People spent more money/time on Mayweather/Pac that otherwise would've ventured to see Ultron Saturday afternoon/evening or Sunday afternoon.

 

Well yes it did.  Rth came in with the Saturday drops for different areas. I think west coast was up to 50%. However some of that was recovered Sunday. So that 8-9m would be reduced from whatever the "extra" it made on Sunday.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Ecstasy

[redfirebird2008]

I really think the boxing match was a bigger impact than many expected. Without it, it probably grosses $200M+ OW. I mean, even though it's not record breaking, it's still absolutely ridiculous to open two films over $200M OW. If it comes up just $8M or $9M short of that number, I think that's proven. People spent more money/time on Mayweather/Pac that otherwise would've ventured to see Ultron Saturday afternoon/evening or Sunday afternoon.

 

Yeah, I think most expected $2m type impact but it was definitely bigger than that. The movie did have a nice recovery on Sunday but I don't think it was able to get back all of that lost revenue.

[grim22]

Aw it was close give or take a mil or two $189.5. Grim and others were closer I think.  But thank you anyway.

 

I took a gut call. Take IM3's OW, take Avengers OW, divide by 2 gives you 191.5M. Didn't feel there was enough demand as Avengers 1, but also it is still an Avengers movie so should open bigger than IM3 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Yeah, I think most expected $2m type impact but it was definitely bigger than that. The movie did have a nice recovery on Sunday but I don't think it was able to get back all of that lost revenue.

The question becomes will Ultron see more recovery over the weekdays and this coming weekend? I've missed a few days here. What's the consensus on that notion around these parts?

[Mr Terrific]

Yeah, well, MayPac Ii would lose a lot from the first one.

[Mango]

I'm really curious as to how the legs will be. Obviously it's not getting a 3x, but WOM is strong enough to where a 2.5-2.6 multi would make sense to me.

Pessimistic I guess it ends up around $450 million (IM3/TDW multi) and high end around $520 million (TWS multi)

[grim22]

The question becomes will Ultron see more recovery over the weekdays and this coming weekend? I've missed a few days here. What's the consensus on that notion around these parts?

 

The consensus is that there will be an overreaction to any number over the weekdays 

[JohnnyGossamer]

I took a gut call. Take IM3's OW, take Avengers OW, divide by 2 gives you 191.5M. Didn't feel there was enough demand as Avengers 1, but also it is still an Avengers movie so should open bigger than IM3 

Did you make this prediction before/after the colossal boxing match was set for this past Saturday night? Just curious...

[redfirebird2008]

I took a gut call. Take IM3's OW, take Avengers OW, divide by 2 gives you 191.5M. Didn't feel there was enough demand as Avengers 1, but also it is still an Avengers movie so should open bigger than IM3 

 

That was a great call. Well done! Interesting way to do it too and worked out beautifully for your prediction. When attempting to estimate how much a Wednesday opener would do over a regular 3-day weekend, I do something very similar. Take the average of the 5-day and weekend totals.

[ecstasy]

The question becomes will Ultron see more recovery over the weekdays and this coming weekend? I've missed a few days here. What's the consensus on that notion around these parts?

 

I brought this question up a couple of times.  It got lost amidst all of the HP posts.  I don't think it will recover weekdays but next weekend should see a smaller drop than normal. But after Sunday, there's no real way of knowing.  

[doublejack]

I got it the first time you posted this. I just don't entirely agree that it's as big of an issue as you think it is.

 

I don't see how you could view it as anything other than a big issue. It makes TA2 something other than a direct sequel to TA1. So all sequel comparisons go out the window.

[Avatree]

That was a great call. Well done! Interesting way to do it too and worked out beautifully for your prediction. When attempting to estimate how much a Wednesday opener would do over a regular 3-day weekend, I do something very similar. Take the average of the 5-day and weekend totals.

Yeah I do the same, take the 5 day, take the 3-5 days, get the average. Not perfect but there's no real way to do it.

[redfirebird2008]

I don't see how you could view it as anything other than a big issue. It makes TA2 something other than a direct sequel to TA1. So all sequel comparisons go out the window.

 

Based on that logic the first Avengers should not have blown every other MCU movie completely out of the water. That's why I don't entirely agree with the premise that this was just another MCU movie.

[grim22]

Did you make this prediction before/after the colossal boxing match was set for this past Saturday night? Just curious...

 

Made this prediction in the BSG. It was locked Thursday midnight, the prediction is there for all to see. One of my better predictions for a change, was hard to go against the large majority here and most trade websites and blogs saying it would be much bigger than the first on OW.