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Monthly/Quarterly/Yearly Box Office Watch

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11 hours ago, jiangsen said:

April 2015 - 4.09B RMB

April 2016 - 3.11B RMB (- 24%)

 

Biggest YOY monthly drop in recent history

Does this mean that the market growth is finally starting to slow down, or is it mostly just a testament to how big F7 was?

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11 hours ago, Gokai Red said:

Does this mean that the market growth is finally starting to slow down, or is it mostly just a testament to how big F7 was?

F7, that is all. Same can happen in July if there are not films able to match Monster Hunt. The truth is that in 2015 there were 8 films over 1 billion Yuan, and this year there are already 5 (Mermaid, Zootopia, Macau, Monkey King and KFP3). And I do not count Civil War, Finding Mr. Right 2 and Jungle Book which can get it. And we are just starting May...

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On 5/1/2016 at 8:42 AM, Gokai Red said:

Does this mean that the market growth is finally starting to slow down, or is it mostly just a testament to how big F7 was?

 

19 hours ago, Cynosure said:

The latter. You can't establish a trend based on one month of data.

It's a little of both. It is just FF7 this month but it's also an example of how massive growth eventually becomes hard to sustain. Happens with corporations and nations as well. An eventual slow down can be indicated in a month or its an anomaly.  June could be flat and July looks like it will be hard to beat and be down,  that would be confirmation as a trend. 

Another sign is that HLWD movie growth has slowed compared to local film. That means the build out of theaters in 1st and second tier cities has slowed and could be nearing saturation.

Olive should have theater build data soon.

 

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On Thursday, March 31, 2016 at 7:50 PM, Olive said:

March 2015 = 2.91B yuan

March 2016 = 3.75B yuan (+29%)

 

Q1 of 2015  9.58B

Q1 of 2016 14.5B yuan (+51%)

 

On Saturday, April 30, 2016 at 8:52 PM, jiangsen said:

April 2015 - 4.09B RMB

April 2016 - 3.11B RMB (- 24%)

 

Biggest YOY monthly drop in recent history

Thru April 30

2015    13.67B

2016    17.61B  +29% YoY

 

May is shaping up to be flat to up 10%

YTD May 31 est

2015    16.9

2016    21.0  +24.2% YoY

 

June could be flat to up 1B but July could be flat or worse . 

YTD July 31 projection with 1B increase for June and July combined.

2015   25.6                           $4.12B.               XR 6.21

2016   30.7   +19.9 YoY     $4.71B +12.5%  XR 6.52

YTD if June and July is flat.

2016   29.7   +16%              $4.55B  +8.3%

Edited by No Prisoners
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The percentage increase from last year dropped from 51 (at the end of Q1) to 23 in a month and a half. I think my 10.3% annual rise is happening with the summer looking like it could be flat to slightly lower/higher than last year's.

Edited by Agafin
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On Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 1:20 AM, Cynosure said:

Dollar drop will thus be much harsher.

It's at 6.58 now but the average for the year is about 6.53 down 5.15%

Month is down 7.1% in dollars.

June should be up decent. 2B of the 3.2B last June was made by JW and SA. HA and another local made more than half of the rest. With Xmen and WC making up for JW and SA, FD, ID2 and a couple locals  should give this June a big increase

Edited by No Prisoners
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On Tuesday, June 02, 2015 at 5:00 PM, Olive said:

Yearly box office reached 16.3 billion yuan by May 24th, up 59.3% from last year.

 

Jan - May about 16.85 Billion yuan, up 55% from last year.

 

 

There are 27,800 screens settled in more than 5600 cinemas.

 

On Thursday, June 02, 2016 at 6:48 PM, Olive said:

By the end of May, there are 34,527 screens built in 6912 theaters.

More than 300 are IMAX screens.

6727 built in 12 months +24%

 

YoY BO thru may 31 

YTD

2015  ¥16.9b                     $2.725b

2016  ¥20.73  +22.6%      $3.174  +16%

Edited by No Prisoners
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5 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

@Olive, Deadline said 39000 screens

 

http://deadline.com/2016/06/warcraft-china-advance-ticket-sales-record-legendary-wanda-furious-7-box-office-preview-1201767728/

There are 39,000 total screens in the PROC. Wanda now owns Legendary, and its exhibition circuit has 18% of those

more like 33,000

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Year 1st half +/- % of year Whole year
2010  4.840  N/A 47.58% 10.172 
2011 5.698 17.73% 43.45% 13.115 
2012 8.071 41.65% 47.27% 17.073 
2013 10.994 36.22% 50.50% 21.769 
2014 13.743 25.00% 46.75% 29.398 
2015 20.363 48.17% 46.35% 43.930 
2016 24.686 21.23% N/A N/A
        (billion yuan)
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Good, but I find a bit worrying that Q2 drop. One month drop can say a lack of appealing releases, but a whole quarter can indicate a slow down process (like @No Prisonershas been saying). How are the perspectives for the bunch of local films which are coming next weeks?

 

Anyway, to make 24b during 6 first months already means a 84% of the whole 2014 BO, what I think it is still amazing.

 

And correct me if I am wrong, but according my data, if we take the first half films released in both 2015 and 2016 and we order them by gross, we have that among top 15, 4 films are from 2015 and 11 films are from 2016. Maybe overall increase is not so spectacular, but top lists keeps changing a lot. "Quality" of grosses keeps increasing considerably.

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