What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

[POTUS 2020]

Is Puerto Rico included?

Do you think that if Canada is not included, we will see China passing domestic a year earlier?

I think the growth slows in the next one to three years, its hard to maintain these increases at this level, then flattens out. If it gets to 6.5B this year I think it could still get in the 9s quick. Then have down and up years like Dom while growing a little faster than Dom overall. If I subtract 14% for Canada and Puerto rico then it could pass the US soon, which was probably 9b last year. I believe it would be a 5 years or more difference because it mite catch the US in the steep part of the curve as opposed to taking many more years to catch up to the extra 1.5B with much smaller growth.

Whats your estimate?

[sgchn40]

I think the growth slows in the next one to three years, its hard to maintain these increases at this level, then flattens out. If it gets to 6.5B this year I think it could still get in the 9s quick. Then have down and up years like Dom while growing a little faster than Dom overall. If I subtract 14% for Canada and Puerto rico then it could pass the US soon, which was probably 9b last year. I believe it would be a 5 years or more difference because it mite catch the US in the steep part of the curve as opposed to taking many more years to catch up to the extra 1.5B with much smaller growth.

Whats your estimate?

There are two factors. How many more Chinese will be movie-goers and how cheap will the tickets get? Entgroup reported recently in their Chinese edition that cheaper tickets will most likely become the norm. I assume 10% cheaper ticket create 30% more attendance. The disproportionate increase is based on the cheaper pre-sales of AOU and F7 helping them break records.

I believe less than 10% of the population watch F7. Which means there is still immense potential to grow. If the frenetic pace of theatre construction continues, then I will say that within 3 years, it will match or even surpass USA at around 9 to 10 billion in 2018.

[POTUS 2020]

There are two factors. How many more Chinese will be movie-goers and how cheap will the tickets get? Entgroup reported recently in their Chinese edition that cheaper tickets will most likely become the norm. I assume 10% cheaper ticket create 30% more attendance. The disproportionate increase is based on the cheaper pre-sales of AOU and F7 helping them break records.

I believe less than 10% of the population watch F7. Which means there is still immense potential to grow. If the frenetic pace of theatre construction continues, then I will say that within 3 years, it will match or even surpass USA at around 9 to 10 billion in 2018.

Like I said earlier in the thread they would have to go much cheaper in place where they make $1-2 per hour. In india they have shoddy theater in villages where they can see a movie for 80c compared to $4 in nice theaters in delhi. Admissions will soar and pass US in no time but the revenue would add up slower.

 

Puerto Rico should be included as it is part of the united states. Canada is about 12% of the population of the US which would make it 10% of domestic now that I think about it. So last year would be 9.5b roughly.

 

I think a ticket is $5-7 in China, maybe 5% saw FF7. 10% to 15% of the US population go out and see a blockbuster. Its taken 20 years  of huge growth to get 200-300m to move into the cities and become movie goers. A long way to go to get another 600m people up to the standard of living of a typical movie goer. I got tired of sequels after jaws 3 and superman 3 30 years ago along with many of my friends after watching movies for 12 years(since I could remember) That was a new thing, kind of a norm now. Many Chinese have been eager to go as it has exploded over the last 10 years and is a new thing to many. It will wear off for some of them. Ticket sales have declined per capita in the US, Europe and Japan for the last 30 years.. As china expands over the next 10 years, its existing ticket buyer may decline to offset some of the growth.

[sgchn40]

AOU's average ticket price is rmb$38. The admission is about 63.8 million counts, which is about 5% of the population. By the way, the promotion for some AOU shows in Beijing and other rmajor cities is a ticket plus popcorn and drinks at rmb$18.80. In other words, $1-2 usd tickets are already present.

Say, the average tickets fall by 10% while the average admission grows by 30% each year to around 10% of the population watching a blockbuster before it stabilises, then we can expect that the Chinese market to be around $10.28billion usd in 2018.

In this model, the price drop is very aggressive. By the way, as an Asian, I believe a better comparison of attendance will be Korea and Japan. Their blockbusters can be attended by 30% to 50% of the population.

Edited May 22, 2015 by sgchn40

[POTUS 2020]

AOU's average ticket price is rmb$38. The admission is about 63.8 million counts, which is about 5% of the population. By the way, the promotion for some AOU shows in Beijing and other rmajor cities is a ticket plus popcorn and drinks at rmb$18.80. In other words, $1-2 usd tickets are already present.

Say, the average tickets fall by 10% while the average admission grows by 30% each year to around 10% of the population watching a blockbuster before it stabilises, then we can expect that the Chinese market to be around $10.28billion usd in 2018.

In this model, the price drop is very aggressive. By the way, as an Asian, I believe a better comparison of attendance will be Korea and Japan. Their blockbusters can be attended by 30% to 50% of the population.

Good observation overall

But Japan and Korea are small landmasses with high density, mostly urban and high GDP per capita.

Less than 20% of Japanese attend the biggest blockbusters. Frozen, the second biggest in 15 years sold 20m tickets out of 125m (116m urban) people. 16%

Sk's recent blockbusters are 10-13m admissions from 50m people(40m urban), 20-25%

 

For china to get to 80%+ urban would be a staggering feat considering how much its grown already to get to where it is now and would need to get there obtain that 15-20% level. A good comparison could be Russia, Large land mass, people are still spread out, changing over to capitalism over the last 25 years, and a booming movie business to go with it.   5-10m people go to see the blockbusters there or just 4-7%. But the growth has slowed already. They started earlier and already they are leveling off.

[sgchn40]

In 2014, Chinese urban population is around 54%, which works out to be around 730 million people. Say we take 7%, it will be 51 million admissions. Hence if we go by Russia, then we are looking at China's box office shrinking... I still think that we should follow Japan at the very least. Assuming it is 16% of urban population as you said, then it will be 1.85 times of F7's admission at 116.8m. This is just based on current urban population. China will continue to urbanize especially with their hukou reforms. So, I really think that it is within the next few years. The max I give is 2020, much more likely earlier.

[Jack]

I think I found an interesting statistic to help give weight to arguments by pessimistic prognosticators.

In the US there are 117 million households and the average household has an income of $51,939 per year.

That means that each household needed to spend $88.54 on movie tickets last year.

That amount is 0.17% of the households income.

In china there are 772 million employed persons with an average wage of 52,388 CNY or $8,382 per year. 1

That means for china to surpass the domestic BO ($10.36B) each employed person would need to spend $13.42 on movie tickets.

That amount is 0.16% of the employed persons wage.

At the US proportion (0.17%) the Chinese BO would be $11B.

If it is assumed that this is the maximum proportion that is reasonable to expect any citizen to pay. It sets an absolute limit to the growth of the Chinese BO. When there is a limit to an exponentially growing data source, a sigmoid function is a better model than an exponential function. This would suggest that the chinese BO will start slowing down when it hits the midpoint of its maximum i.e. $5.5B.

Therefore according to this model, the Chinese BO will start slowing down after this year. (Last year was ~$4.7B.)

Thanks for the info. But I think you forget to take into account the increasing wage of employed persons in China. It can double the current value by 2020. Edited May 22, 2015 by Jack

[Jack]

There is a lot of hype that China will pass domestic in the near future. I disagree, as I have posted a few times. To stop sounding like a broken record to all those that keep stating the obvious apparent; a huge continuous trend with no end in sight, I'm looking for the blindside and the trend to break suddenly for numerous reasons. Everyone can voice their opinions here as will I.

The poll is to see what the consensus is.

You can also post:

The year for China to overtake Dom.

The year of the first $1B movie

The Franchise, Director or Producer of the first $1B film. if its Avatar name it or it can be Cameron doing something else, "unknown DC Comic collective" like Avengers

I will create a spreadsheet and update it monthly. All posts must be by the end of the year, 2015.

I may start a new spread sheet every year to keep things interesting. This may take a long time to resolve, but then again, all we have is time.

My reasons that it will be a lot longer than people think:

Any of these can/will happen. I'm not saying all will, but one or more combined will stifle the growth in the near and/or distant future.

Global financial/real estate crisis' happen every 7 to 10 years. Its been 6 years since the meltdown. Another will be coming soon and will effect China. China has recovered well from the last two, 2001 and 2009 but they are bigger than ever and as they say the harder it will fall.

Most economies that have huge growth for 20 years hit a wall like Japan in 89

Stories of China Ghost cities. They have already overbuilt and cant get enough people to move from the country to the city.

Movies are novelty to most still. That will wane for many as it has in Japan and other mature markets, and 3d has globally

Even if GDP passes the US in a few years it will be spread out over 4x as many people. Per capita GDP will still be lower than most major nations.

More than half of the population subsist or make minimum wage. Would you pay a days wage to go see a movie? That leaves a potential movie going population of less than 500 million people with less disposable income than dom

The Yuan is pegged to the dollar but the government has let the dollar slip a little bit over the years. The BO has to overcome future XR declines

I agree that any of those crisis has the possibility to happen. But how did you come up with the year 2026 or 11 years from now? China can fall but it can also recover. How many years will those crisis affect BO numbers? How long till the numbers start to recover and rise again? And what kind of historical data back that up?

I can understand people predicted 2018/19/20 because they went with the current rate with a little margin added. But 2026? Could you please give us more explanation?

Thank you.

Edited May 22, 2015 by Jack

[POTUS 2020]

I agree that any of those crisis has the possibility to happen. But how did you come up with the year 2026 or 11 years from now? China can fall but it can also recover. How many years will those crisis affect BO numbers? How long till the numbers start to recover and rise again? And what kind of historical data back that up?

I can understand people predicted 2018/19/20 because they went with the current rate with a little margin added. But 2026? Could you please give us more explanation?

Thank you.

An estimation. A crisis can last 2-3 years. I think it gets up to 9B in the next 3 years then slows. A couple sideways/down years (during crisis) then up 5-10% years as  more people urbanize and theater continue to be built but at a slower pace and the novelty wares off for some. Domestic has only grown an average of less than 2% per year for the last 10. At that rate  it'll be at 13b. If China averages 5% after the sharp growth is over it will be at 13B as well in 2026.

[POTUS 2020]

dBL POST

Edited May 23, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[POTUS 2020]

Thanks for the info. But I think you forget to take into account the increasing wage of employed persons in China. It can double the current value by 2020.

I'm not sure how wages can double without GDP skyrocketing which is not expected. The growth rate is slowing

 

Here is more data and another way to look at it

 

 

Country	GDP 2014(	GDP P/Cap	BO 2014(M)	GDP/BO Ratio	BO P/Cap $	Urban %
Australia	1,100	46,400	1,000	110	$43.47	89
South Korea	1,780	35,200	1,600	111	$32.00	82
France	2,580	40,400	1,800	143	$27.27	79
UK	2,500	39,500	1,700	147	$26.00	82
USA	17,400	54,500	9,500	183	$29.68	81
Japan	4,700	37,300	2,000	235	$16.00	92
Mexico	2,140	17,900	900	237	$7.37	79
Russia	3,500	24,800	1,200	291	$8.27	74
China	17,600	12,800	4,800	366	$3.69	53
India	7,400	5,800	1,700	435	$1.41	32
China 2019	20,000	15,380	11,000	181	8.46	57

 

 

There is definitely a link between urbanization and BO. China is rising 1% per year for the last 4. 15-20 years to get into the 70s. That correlates with the ratio of GDP to Annual BO. India at 4350 is at 32% urban. Bollywood is well established and there are theaters in the countryside but they make a lot less money per capita and per ticket.

 

another observation is dollars spent per capita vs GDP per capita. China would have to increase GDP by 50% by using mexico as an example and nearly double when looking at Russia to get to $8.46 per person. The number that goes askew when projecting this out is the ratio of GDP to BO, 1810, which is a higher % of GDP  spent on movies than the US. Less than a 2000-1 ratio  only exists for countries with $35,000+  GDP P/C . Japan is higher than 2000 because their movie goers are diminishing

 

To sum it up. China didn't have that many movie theaters in the cities to begin with. 15 years ago Cities expanded at one rate, but theaters expanded at a much higher rate just to play catch up. Soon theater expansion maybe be held in check to the 1% annual increase of urbanization and some low priced theaters built in the country side. 

 

BO also exploded with the theaters to play catch up with GDP as the massive theater expansion began years after GDP was growing tremendously.

 

So I don't see how it can get to 11B BO ny 2020 with 20T in GDP, 1/1810 GDP spent on BO at $8.46 per person, with a 57% urban population.

 

GDP would have to rise at least 50%, more like 75%, to make the ratio 2300-2800 to justify $8.00+ spent per person. That would be 10-15 years and would give urbanization a chance to catch up as well. I think I'll be changing by prediction to 2030 now

[Quigley]

Is Puerto Rico included?

Do you think that if Canada is not included, we will see China passing domestic a year earlier?

Dude, for goodness sake, Puerto Rico is part of the US. How can it not be included? It is literally a part of the country just like any other state despite the extremely scandalous decision to deprive Puertoricans from voting rights.

[sgchn40]

Dude, for goodness sake, Puerto Rico is part of the US. How can it not be included? It is literally a part of the country just like any other state despite the extremely scandalous decision to deprive Puertoricans from voting rights.

Chill please I was just clarifying what domestic box office includes, especially since Canada is included. Hence the question.

I am from Singapore. Many people thought we are part of China when we are more than 1000km away.

Edited May 24, 2015 by sgchn40

[sgchn40]

I'm not sure how wages can double without GDP skyrocketing which is not expected. The growth rate is slowing

Here is more data and another way to look at it

Country GDP 2014( GDP P/Cap BO 2014(M) GDP/BO Ratio BO P/Cap $ Urban % Australia 1,100 46,400 1,000 110 $43.47 89 South Korea 1,780 35,200 1,600 111 $32.00 82 France 2,580 40,400 1,800 143 $27.27 79 UK 2,500 39,500 1,700 147 $26.00 82 USA 17,400 54,500 9,500 183 $29.68 81 Japan 4,700 37,300 2,000 235 $16.00 92 Mexico 2,140 17,900 900 237 $7.37 79 Russia 3,500 24,800 1,200 291 $8.27 74 China 17,600 12,800 4,800 366 $3.69 53 India 7,400 5,800 1,700 435 $1.41 32 China 2019 20,000 15,380 11,000 181 8.46 57

There is definitely a link between urbanization and BO. China is rising 1% per year for the last 4. 15-20 years to get into the 70s. That correlates with the ratio of GDP to Annual BO. India at 4350 is at 32% urban. Bollywood is well established and there are theaters in the countryside but they make a lot less money per capita and per ticket.

another observation is dollars spent per capita vs GDP per capita. China would have to increase GDP by 50% by using mexico as an example and nearly double when looking at Russia to get to $8.46 per person. The number that goes askew when projecting this out is the ratio of GDP to BO, 1810, which is a higher % of GDP spent on movies than the US. Less than a 2000-1 ratio only exists for countries with $35,000+ GDP P/C . Japan is higher than 2000 because their movie goers are diminishing

To sum it up. China didn't have that many movie theaters in the cities to begin with. 15 years ago Cities expanded at one rate, but theaters expanded at a much higher rate just to play catch up. Soon theater expansion maybe be held in check to the 1% annual increase of urbanization and some low priced theaters built in the country side.

BO also exploded with the theaters to play catch up with GDP as the massive theater expansion began years after GDP was growing tremendously.

So I don't see how it can get to 11B BO ny 2020 with 20T in GDP, 1/1810 GDP spent on BO at $8.46 per person, with a 57% urban population.

GDP would have to rise at least 50%, more like 75%, to make the ratio 2300-2800 to justify $8.00+ spent per person. That would be 10-15 years and would give urbanization a chance to catch up as well. I think I'll be changing by prediction to 2030 now

This is an impressive table, MF Lawrence! I have two questions.

I supposed you assumed that the relationship between box office per capita GDP and per capita GDP is a linear regression. Have you plotted the chart?

Secondly, the reason why I brought in the factor of lower tickets is because it has an impact on attendance. Some Chinese media predicts that lowering the ticket price by 10% will result in at least 30% increase in sales. It is happening now. In other words, regardless of economic growth, the question is whether the market has reached its current potential. How much influence do you see lower tickets have on the box office per capita?

[POTUS 2020]

This is an impressive table, MF Lawrence! I have two questions.

I supposed you assumed that the relationship between box office per capita GDP and per capita GDP is a linear regression. Have you plotted the chart?

Secondly, the reason why I brought in the factor of lower tickets is because it has an impact on attendance. Some Chinese media predicts that lowering the ticket price by 10% will result in at least 30% increase in sales. It is happening now. In other words, regardless of economic growth, the question is whether the market has reached its current potential. How much influence do you see lower tickets have on the box office per capita?

I wouldn't say its linear. As GDP/income rises and basic needs are met a larger portion of income, and a much larger sum, is available for entertainment.  By the looks of it below. as GDPPC doubles from India to China to Russia, BOPC increase by 140-150%. But when GDPPC increases just another 50-60% from Russia's 24,800, BOPC nears than quadruples from 8.27 to the top 5 average of 30 

 

GDPPC for india is 14% of the average of the top nations. BOPC is 5%.

China GDPPC is 30%, BOPC is 12%. 

Mexico is 44%,  25%

Russia is 60%, 30%

 

Other factors are in play of course but it shows us a guide. Japan and Germany are much lower than the average as Australia is much higher.

 

There are models for pricing, reduce by X and sales increase by Y. I don't know if it'll be -10% = +30%, but It will boost admissions and someone mentioned that $2 tickets are available. Remember, at -10%, they need to sell 11% more tickets to break even. If they sell 1B tickets in the country side at $2, that will add only 2B in receipts but their admissions would be insane.

 

Its apparent that the three key factors are GDP/income, Urban  % and pricing for growth. What will be working against growth will be the maturation of the market and the novelty factor wearing off. 3D was a boost in 2010, then faded. And just like TASM 1/2, TF4 PotC4 all see declining sales in Domestic due to the "same ole shit" factor, and Japan now declines on most sequels, that'll kick in, in china too for some of the audience over the next 5 years.

 

The top 25 films out of 600 last year were 1/2 of the BO in Dom. Many sequels underperformed and the year was down 5%. Many were thinking TA2 would do 250-300m in china due to TF4 and FF7s success. Its going to finish at 225m w mixed WOM. China will need the top 25 to continue to increase dramatically, but the quality has to be there and that's a tough thing to keep up, They had quite a few local films do $100-200m in the last 2 years. Lets see how the summer releases perform. They too need to reach new heights.

[POTUS 2020]

Dude, for goodness sake, Puerto Rico is part of the US. How can it not be included? It is literally a part of the country just like any other state despite the extremely scandalous decision to deprive Puertoricans from voting rights.

I will be more than happy to exchange my voting rights for exemption from federal income tax.

[Quigley]

I will be more than happy to exchange my voting rights for exemption from federal income tax.

 

That's what happens to people whose religion is money.

[POTUS 2020]

That's what happens to people whose religion is money.

money is freedom. allows me to do what I want.

vote all you want. the corporations will do what they want regardless, they have all the money. they are running the world

[POTUS 2020]

Country	GDP PPP 2014(M)	GDP PPP P/Cap	GDP Nom 2014(M)	GDP Nom P/Cap	BO 2014(M)	BO P/Cap $	AveTixPr/ GDPNPC x1000	BOPC/ GDP P PC x1000	BOPC/ GDP Nom PC x1000	BOPC Nom/ PPP	Urban %
1 Australia	1,100,000	46,400	1,450,000	61,200	1,000	$43.47	0.16	93.7	71.0	0.8	89
2 South Korea	1,780,000	35,200	1,400,000	28,100	1,600	$32.00	0.25	90.9	113.9	1.3	82
3 France	2,580,000	40,400	2,850,000	44,500	1,800	$27.27	0.20	67.5	61.3	0.9	79
4 UK	2,500,000	39,500	3,050,000	45,600	1,700	$26.00	0.20	65.8	57.0	0.9	82
USA 2019	19,600,000	60,300	20,000,000	60,000	11,000	$34.37	0.15	57.0	57.3	1.0	81
5 USA	17,400,000	54,300	17,400,000	54,500	9,500	$29.68	0.15	54.7	54.5	1.0	81
6 Spain	1,410,000	33,700	1,400,000	30,200	700	$15.05	0.26	44.7	49.8	1.1	77
China 2019	23,000,000	17,690	14,000,000	10,200	11,000	$8.46	0.59	47.8	82.9	1.7	58
7 Japan	4,700,000	37,300	4,600,000	36,300	2,000	$16.00	0.36	42.9	44.1	1.0	92
8 Mexico	2,140,000	17,900	1,280,000	10,700	900	$7.37	0.37	41.2	68.9	1.7	79
9 Russia	3,500,000	24,800	1,850,000	12,900	1,400	$10.00	0.54	40.3	77.5	1.9	74
10 Italy	2,150,000	35,500	2,150,000	35,800	800	$13.17	0.25	37.1	36.8	1.0	67
China 2015	18,300,000	13,700	11,100,000	8,000	6,500	$5.00	0.63	36.5	62.5	1.7	54
Brazil	2,350,000	16,100	2,350,000	11,600	800	$3.92	0.46	24.3	33.8	1.4	80
Germany	3,850,000	45,900	3,850,000	47,500	1,300	$16.04	0.21	34.9	33.8	1.0	69
China 2014	17,600,000	12,800	10,400,000	7,500	4,800	$3.69	0.67	28.8	49.2	1.7	53
India	7,400,000	5,800	2,050,000	1,620	1,700	$1.41	0.93	24.3	87.0	3.6	32
Average	7,727,059	31,605	5,951,765	29,778	3,441	$17.23	0.37	49.0	61.3	1.4	72.3

 

 

Reworked some of the number and added GDP nominal. GDP PPP is good to use for cost of local goods and services which can be much cheaper in many countries relative to GDP p/cap. e..g. I can get a haircut for 1/20th the price in india, but a movie is 1/4. Looking at GDP nominal may make more sense to look at and reinforces the slow down of BO in China.

 

I added a few countries. Interestingly enough. Italy and Germany are less urban to my surprise and are the lowest of the major European nations in BO PC relative to GDPppp PC. This reinforces importance of urban % getting over 70%.

 

The disparity of BO GDPnomPC to GDPpppPC is high in China at 1.7 compared to established markets and similar to growing markets, Brazil, Mexico and Russia where O growth is slowing down

 

to get 11B in 2019, BOPC/GDPpppPC x1000 gets very high at 47.8 compared to other countries with double the GDPppp. It gets extremely high at 82.9 for BOPC/GDPnomPCx1000.

 

Average ticket price is too high compared to GDPnomPC when comparing to other growing countries.

 

By the looks of it BO caught up to its economic growth. BO will be close to the same % to GDPnom this year as the US 9.5B/17T= .55%. China 6.5B/11.1T= .58%

 

The more I look into it I'm really thinking the slow down will be even sooner even without a global problem. I think we see no more BO growth than GDPnom 's growth going forward. If GDP grows 6% per year for the next 5 years. BO will be no more than 9B in 2020.

[POTUS 2020]

In 2014, Chinese urban population is around 54%, which works out to be around 730 million people. Say we take 7%, it will be 51 million admissions. Hence if we go by Russia, then we are looking at China's box office shrinking... I still think that we should follow Japan at the very least. Assuming it is 16% of urban population as you said, then it will be 1.85 times of F7's admission at 116.8m. This is just based on current urban population. China will continue to urbanize especially with their hukou reforms. So, I really think that it is within the next few years. The max I give is 2020, much more likely earlier.

10m people going to see a blockbuster(15m saw Avatar I think) in Russia is 7% of the total population but is 10% of the urban. Russia's GDPnom is a third of Japan's and is the reason it doesn't get to Japan's level of attendance which is lower than other major countries. Not enough people making enough to go to a movie. Same with Brazil and Mexico. China's GDPnomPC  is still 33% lower than Russia. Its closer to Brazil and Mexico and the numbers are comparable, and those 2 have much smaller growth, Maybe it could get to 100m people seeing a movie but at lower prices, $5 average.

 

There is another disparity in play here. There is a disproportionate amount of tickets sold for the biggest movies compared to the top ten and annual BO total.  Last year TF4 was 6.7% of the total and there wasn't a close second, this year FF7 could be 6-6,5% but TA2 is a distant second.  Historically the top 10 movies in Dom were 2-5% with a few number 1s hitting 7%. Last year TF4 was just 5% to 9% lower than GotG, HG3 and AS but the BO was 54% lower.The broader base of movies needs to catch up.

 

So we cant look at just the top movie's potential, to forecast total BO, but at least we must look at the top ten or twenty.