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What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

China to Overtake Domestic  

87 members have voted

  1. 1. What year will China pass Domestic in US$

  2. 2. What year will a film exceed $1B

  3. 3. Which Franchise will be the First $1B Baby

    • Avengers
    • Avatar
    • Batman
      0
    • Superman
      0
    • Transformers
    • Jurassic
      0
    • Harry Potter (you never know)
      0
    • Pirates
      0
    • Kung Fu Panda
    • Fast and Furious
    • Something from James Cameron -Other than avatar
    • Christoper Nolan
    • Steven Spielberg
      0
    • Jerry Bruckheimer
      0
    • Peter Jackson
      0
    • Journey to the west. IDK if that is sequalable
    • Monkey King
    • Taking of Tiger Mount
    • Chinese Zodiak
      0
    • Star Wars


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Why I think your way to analyse is at least a bit faulty:

 

in the US the government does not try to reduce the BO via manipulted bad release dates via censorship, also something the US doesn't do (I think I've read MM:FR will not even get a release date)

 

If a studio already had a big earner in China, they'll usually get rather bad release dates for their next 'hopefuls'

 

China also still caps the amount of foreign movies per year (split inot 'normal' movies and Indies), and the high ticket prices of the last some years... are too rumored to be a conscious thing (in connection to political POVs, see Avatar-in-China discussions, as well as financial success), also which movie gets how many 3D screens and so on.

 

The US also has no 'protection months'... when no foreign movie is even allowed

 

The US has no max possible running time (date-wise) like China has in a way

 

and so on

 

What you also seem to completely to ignore are massivly changed exchange rates like e.g. 2011 to 2015 -20% for the Euro, way more for the Rubel and actual 10% for China

Peludo did a great thread about that, I wasn't in the forum for several months (just started again a few weeks back) = haven't checked it on it's actuality, but it should show you quite a lot of insight for that theme.

 

China toped the per month BO of the US for the first time in Februar (this year)

Pro analysts say it will surpass the US between 2017-2020

A lot will depend on e.g. exchange rates, the lowering of restrictions via release dates,...

 

And something else:

I guess no one denies the importance of trailers seen in a cinema for creating an appetite within the audience.

The studios pay for those in China, but a lot of cinemas show regional advertising instead, earn as such twice money. If the government would finally do something about that, it again might change the viewing habits

 

To citate the US cinema owners organisation:

with less people going to cinemas at some times, less people see the trailers, that seems to hurt (at least partly) future releases too, especially if the future release is not a franchise or elsewise 'known' product....

 

Too many essential differing market details for a pure numbers comparison (see e.g. per month, if a certain month is a protection month)

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Why I think your way to analyse is at least a bit faulty:

 

in the US the government does not try to reduce the BO via manipulted bad release dates via censorship, also something the US doesn't do (I think I've read MM:FR will not even get a release date)

 

If a studio already had a big earner in China, they'll usually get rather bad release dates for their next 'hopefuls'

 

China also still caps the amount of foreign movies per year (split inot 'normal' movies and Indies), and the high ticket prices of the last some years... are too rumored to be a conscious thing (in connection to political POVs, see Avatar-in-China discussions, as well as financial success), also which movie gets how many 3D screens and so on.

 

The US also has no 'protection months'... when no foreign movie is even allowed

 

The US has no max possible running time (date-wise) like China has in a way

 

and so on

 

What you also seem to completely to ignore are massivly changed exchange rates like e.g. 2011 to 2015 -20% for the Euro, way more for the Rubel and actual 10% for China

Peludo did a great thread about that, I wasn't in the forum for several months (just started again a few weeks back) = haven't checked it on it's actuality, but it should show you quite a lot of insight for that theme.

 

China toped the per month BO of the US for the first time in Februar (this year)

Pro analysts say it will surpass the US between 2017-2020

A lot will depend on e.g. exchange rates, the lowering of restrictions via release dates,...

 

And something else:

I guess no one denies the importance of trailers seen in a cinema for creating an appetite within the audience.

The studios pay for those in China, but a lot of cinemas show regional advertising instead, earn as such twice money. If the government would finally do something about that, it again might change the viewing habits

 

To citate the US cinema owners organisation:

with less people going to cinemas at some times, less people see the trailers, that seems to hurt (at least partly) future releases too, especially if the future release is not a franchise or elsewise 'known' product....

 

Too many essential differing market details for a pure numbers comparison (see e.g. per month, if a certain month is a protection month)

But look at the data presented. BO to both nominal and ppp gdp and per capita have just about caught up to established markets

Add in 1% of the population is moving into the cities now. That's a 2% increase plus 7% GDP growth. If the BO % in yuan has finally caught up to GDP and the growth is 9% then that's all I expect the growth to be in the next year or two, unless, some things happen that could slow it down or bring it to a sudden halt preventing it from surpassing Domestic in the next few years

I mentioned some of these things when I started this thread and they are now happening

 

The currency falls, a 3% drop just happened.

 

The stock market tanks having a ripple effect in investment to building empty cities which is accountable for a great deal of GDP growth. The market as of today is now down 40% from the june highs and still falling out of bed. The west dragged china down in 2000 and 2008, and china recovered.  china is leading the charge now taking down the west 10%+ in the last 2 weeks and this is a completely different animal

 

The party is over, the growth in GDP is over. Millions of construction workers will become unemployed. and cause a ripple effect in local economies.  The US had 3m construction workers in 2007 and it dropped to 1m by 2009. The migration from rural to city will slow or grind to a halt. What is left is the current market place that can still grow 10-20%, but that's it. 750m that are in the city now sharing a GDP that is 2/3s the size of domestic(including Canada) will not and can not spend more $s at the BO than the 360m people in Domestic that have more disposable income per capita.

 

This the beginning of a very rocky road. Not just for china or its BO. Seriously.

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But look at the data presented. BO to both nominal and ppp gdp and per capita have just about caught up to established markets

Add in 1% of the population is moving into the cities now. That's a 2% increase plus 7% GDP growth. If the BO % in yuan has finally caught up to GDP and the growth is 9% then that's all I expect the growth to be in the next year or two, unless, some things happen that could slow it down or bring it to a sudden halt preventing it from surpassing Domestic in the next few years

I mentioned some of these things when I started this thread and they are now happening

 

The currency falls, a 3% drop just happened.

 

The stock market tanks having a ripple effect in investment to building empty cities which is accountable for a great deal of GDP growth. The market as of today is now down 40% from the june highs and still falling out of bed. The west dragged china down in 2000 and 2008, and china recovered.  china is leading the charge now taking down the west 10%+ in the last 2 weeks and this is a completely different animal

 

The party is over, the growth in GDP is over. Millions of construction workers will become unemployed. and cause a ripple effect in local economies.  The US had 3m construction workers in 2007 and it dropped to 1m by 2009. The migration from rural to city will slow or grind to a halt. What is left is the current market place that can still grow 10-20%, but that's it. 750m that are in the city now sharing a GDP that is 2/3s the size of domestic(including Canada) will not and can not spend more $s at the BO than the 360m people in Domestic that have more disposable income per capita.

 

This the beginning of a very rocky road. Not just for china or its BO. Seriously.

Again: as long as the market is manipulated, with restrictions for foreigners and their own film makers,.... not the same, as such not directly compareable.

I do know all details you presented  and some more, no need to repeat ;)

I don't think your datas are faulty, which ones you pick, what you compare and interpret with what reasoning is, what I think is partly wrong

 

I think no one who looks into international business (not only movie...) knows that some things can end in a bad way, how long that can take, how bad... I doubt anyone can say for sure. Some might end with a correct result, but based on wrong assumptions, some might do the right assumptions, but over-/underestimate the impacts... way too many possibilities, nothing is absolute.

Including if the Chinese decide on counteractions, and if yes, if they might help, if those counteractions might cause the Dollar exchange rates going up or down,

or if the US policy changes, what happens when said policy in relation to international business and other relations might change after the government changes, how some details of that might also hurt the US reputation and businesses, how the so called 'Islamic State' might cause problems that will have (or not) an influence on the economy (like how much in which country ww)... what might or not backslash also on the Chinese or US economy and / or exchange rates for that reasons or complete other reasons.

Or even the US economy, China might even overturn (term?) the USs BO... via the US getting an internal economy... crisis for some reasons no one in the US seems to be concerned about yet.

Not saying I doubt the possibilty of the Chinese economy crashing very heavily too, only that there are still other possibilities like you seem to see those.

 

I am pretty sure you are not thinking you see the future via a glass-ball (term?), but you seem a bit very sure about the 'trueness' of your comparisons of datas, that are not based on the same basics

 

If you'd write more 'might' instead of 'will' I wouldn't have written here btw.

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Others are using "will" in passing domestic by a certain time or getting to 20B just by using the current growth rate and the size of the population. I am using "will" based on all the data mentioned above. A flattening out of the curve is inevitable.

 

I'm not an opinion writer, like so many that publish. where they use might or could or should. Where I come from, Wall Street, you do your research, you lay your balls on the line by dropping a few million into a position with 100% confidence and conviction based on the data.

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1.What you also seem to completely to ignore are massivly changed exchange rates like e.g. 2011 to 2015 -20% for the Euro, way more for the Rubel and actual 10% for China

 

2.China toped the per month BO of the US for the first time in Februar (this year)

 

3.Pro analysts say it will surpass the US between 2017-2020

 

4.A lot will depend on e.g. exchange rates, the lowering of restrictions via release dates,...

Addressing a few things I missed

1. The Euro primarily traded in the 1.30's to a dollar from 2011 to mid 2014. It moved 20% from last fall to this spring. So the data presented is not affected. The ruble  was mostly between 30-35 to a dollar from 2011 to mid 2014. Russian BO flattened out in that time at 2011-1.2B, 2012- 1.2B, 2013-1.4B, 2014-1.2B(affected by XR at end of year.  Russia/CIS is 19% of the population of china with a larger GDP per capita and larger urban population. The 1.4B peak is the same as 7B in BO in china, another proof that china is ready to slow along with tables that show china is approaching Russian BO/GDP/Nom/PPP/PCap numbers. Russia had an earlier start with HLWD imports and theater expansion and plateaud 4 years ago, china is just about caught up. I did mention currency will play a part in China's BO on the first page

 

2. You are comparing one of China's busiest months(CNY) with one of domestic's slow months

 

3. Pro Analysts? You mean like the 19 out of 20 that went on CNBC in the end of 2007 with the Dow at 14,000(all time high) and saying it would be at 15,000+ by the end of 2008 while laughing at the 1 of 20 that said we were in for a 20-40% fall? I was a trader then, mortgage companies were going bankrupt every week. Rumors of Bear Stearns collapsing. New condo buildings where I lived in Miami  were empty, my friends couldnt get an offer on their houses after marking down 20% and half the country had 100% loans with adjustable rate mortgages that were going up beyond their means. People that write about markets or trends either are writers that don't know a thing about statistics or analysts that are cheerleaders for an industry to suck more investment dollars in to the door. You see wolf of wall street? Matthew Mcconaughey's character, get them to commit more money. sell them that its just going to keep going up without caring for their well being. The analysts seldom have a sell on a stock (1 in a 1000) and reiterate buys all year long while the brokers pump it.

Pro Analyst; "China will slow, XR will negatively affect BO growth in dollars, don't invest in Disney, keep your money in the bank".  You will never that. You will hear the clear blue sky until the rug is pulled, then they'll make up excuses and the brokers go looking for a new job or get new clients

 

4. XR was mentioned as a variable of many variables that could affect BO. Lifting restriction will boost import number but may very well cannibalize local numbers. The critical items are the market crash, investment into city building, employment and wages which are all in world view and subject to shift as we speak

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here is we see the growth falter

 

 

2013 2014   2015       1650 1920 +16.4% 2590 +34.9%     2120 3240 +52.8% 4050 +25.0%     1390 1620 +16.5% 2910 +79.6%     1790 1770 -1.1% 4090 +131.1%     2130 2220 +4.2% 3180 +43.2%     1820 2720 +49.5% 3286 +20.8%     1790 3610 +101.7% 2900 -19.7%     2320 2550 +9.9%         1300 1800 +38.5%         1600 2760 +72.5%         1560 2300 +47.4%         2200 2460 +11.8%         15,010 17,100   23,006 +34.5%       $2,758   $3,711      

 

June exploded last year thanx in part to TF4 and the next 11 months saw massive growth with a number of months up huge. now we come back around and there are some tough numbers to surpass starting with july. itll be interesting to see how many months fail to grow and which ones can pop to new levels. sept thru dec have room to pop but next spring will be tough to beat

I think this chart is inaccurate.  June was up.

 

 

First 7 days in July down 35%. 1000m yuan to 650m. Going to be a big down month. The first in 10 years, The first sign of parabolic fatigue showing, Will still be a great year, but not up 40 or 50% as the beginning of the year portended. 25-30% more likely, maybe $6,2B total. Next year I will assume be up too but breaking next march, april and may will be tough and 2016 and 2017 will need to be up 40% each to surpass domestic at $11B.

A lot of hype on "tiny times", lets see if the growth continues or if there is a 4th installment drop as what often happens in the west. If it bombs like HA, July is doomed and it will be up to Hollywood to save the summer in august

July was also not a big down month...

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I think this chart is inaccurate.  June was up.

 

 

July was also not a big down month...No kidding?

 

  2013 2014   2015      
Jan 1650 1920 +16.4% 2590 +34.9%    
Feb 2120 3240 +52.8% 4050 +25.0%    
Mar 1390 1620 +16.5% 2910 +79.6%    
Apr 1790 1770 -1.1% 4090 +131.1%    
May 2130 2220 +4.2% 3180 +43.2%    
Jun 1820 2720 +49.5% 3286 +20.8%    
Jul 1790 3610 +101.7% 5500 +52.4%    
Aug 2320 2550 +9.9% 3200 +25.5%    
Sep 1300 1800 +38.5%        
Oct 1600 2760 +72.5%        
Nov 1560 2300 +47.4%        
Dec 2200 2460 +11.8%        
YTD 15,010 19,650 +30.9% 28,806 +46.6%    
($M)   $3,169   $4,646      

Missed copying the months. The 6th(June) entry in that post shows +20%

At the time of the post July was down -35% after the first seven days and no one thought MH, JBM and TMK would double expectations.  -19% was a projection for the month

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I have submitted my vote for 2017. I mentioned earlier that I this can be easily arrived at by a simple extrapolation of the rate of growth. I have spent some time considering other more complex models, but I have yet to see any concrete reason to discard the simple extrapolation over such a short time period.

 

I have also been seeing evidence that even (presumably) more complicated models mostly match the expected date provided by the simple extrapolation. example

The truth is of course that all these models are wrong. For example the extrapolation of growth is hilariously wrong thirty years out; it predicts something like $13 trillion. I simply think that over the course of two years reality won't likely stray far from the model. This is based mostly on a smoothness assumption which I think is perfectly reasonable here.

 

I am much less confident in my other predictions of year of first billion dollar film, and which franchise the film is a part of. I basically guessed 2022 for the year, because I am very uncertain where the box office could be by then. For the franchise, I choose the Monkey King, which I took to mean any film predominantly about the monkey king. This was pretty easy to choose given the reliable track record of such films and the fact that Chinese officials think of it as a quintessential Chinese story.

 

I think that to change my mind about the year of passing domestic box office (give or take one year) one would need to explain why the smoothness assumption is invalid here. 

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On ‎10‎/‎30‎/‎2015‎ ‎10‎:‎53‎:‎26‎, The Good Olive said:

80% chance in 2017, 2018 at the latest

The slow down begins next year. I say less than 20% growth occurs and the flattening of the curve begins the economic numbers suggest.

 

Contest: I'll buy a gold account for the closest to pick the percentage increase or decrease, if you dare, for next year's CBO.

I'll go with 18.2%. Number must be posted here by 12/31/15. % increase will be base on Yuan

Minimum Increments of .2%

Edited by No Prisoners
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On 5.12.2015 г. at 3:50 PM, No Prisoners said:

The slow down begins next year. I say less than 20% growth occurs and the flattening of the curve begins the economic numbers suggest.

 

Contest: I'll buy a gold account for the closest to pick the percentage increase or decrease, if you dare, for next year's CBO.

I'll go with 18.2%. Number must be posted here by 12/31/15. % increase will be base on Yuan

Minimum Increments of .2%

32,4%

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The year started off with January being up 47% in yuan. However with the change in XR,  that equates to +37% in dollars.

 

Looks like February will be over 50% with ease and score China's first 6B month. 

 

The test will be April thru July. FF7, AOU, SA and JW scored nearly $1B from April to June. I don't see 4 movies on the schedule that will come close to that plus the 6% currency adjustment. Local films have a lot to make up for, but this is not their strong period. These 3 months could be down or close to flat. July had 3 huge movies coexist and made 5.5B. That will be tough to beat well. 

 

If Jan to Mar is up 50% in yuan(41% in $) then the year maybe up just 25% (18%) thru july.

 

I read that there were a few hundred thousand layoffs in the coal and steel industry. The city building is slowing. I'd like to see the amount of screens expected to be built. China added 25% last year.

 

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I think this is inevitable. But will be driven by local films than bunch of Furious 7 break outs. I think hollywood movie potential will be capped as local industry has been embraced. Somewhat similar to India where with vibrant local industry hollywood is nowhere close to domestic movies.

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2014

Movies 200M$+ Dom-China 13-1

Movies 100M$+ Dom-China 33-11

 

2015

Movies 200M$+ Dom-China 9-7

Movies 100M$+ Dom-China 29-20

 

2016

China beats Dom in one or maybe two comparison?

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14 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

2014

Movies 200M$+ Dom-China 13-1

Movies 100M$+ Dom-China 33-11

 

2015

Movies 200M$+ Dom-China 9-7

Movies 100M$+ Dom-China 29-20

 

2016

China beats Dom in one or maybe two comparison?

For the moment, China could already have the biggest film in a single country of whole 2016. I have serious doubts that any film can reach Mermaid's level (over $500m) in US this year. There are contenders, but locked? I do not see anyone. Rogue One, BvS, Civil War or Dory could make it, but I see it really hard.

 

It is hard to compare until now the two markets, since China has already had one of the biggest box office moments of the year, if not the biggest (CNY), while US is crossing one of the weakest (excepting surprises like Deadpool), so it is better to wait. But for the moment we have this:

 

$500m: US 0 vs China 0 (Mermaid locked in China to reach it)

$400m: US 0 vs China 1

$300m: US 0 vs China 1 (Deadpool locked in US to reach it)

$200m: US 1 vs China 1

$150m: US 1 vs China 4 (including KFP3)

$100m: US 2 vs China 5

 

Last year, during the 2 first months of the year, China had just 1 film able to reach $150m. This year we already have 4. We will see what happens.

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On Monday, February 22, 2016 at 7:10 PM, peludo said:

For the moment, China could already have the biggest film in a single country of whole 2016. I have serious doubts that any film can reach Mermaid's level (over $500m) in US this year. There are contenders, but locked? I do not see anyone. Rogue One, BvS, Civil War or Dory could make it, but I see it really hard.

 

It is hard to compare until now the two markets, since China has already had one of the biggest box office moments of the year, if not the biggest (CNY), while US is crossing one of the weakest (excepting surprises like Deadpool), so it is better to wait. But for the moment we have this:

 

$500m: US 0 vs China 0 (Mermaid locked in China to reach it)

$400m: US 0 vs China 1

$300m: US 0 vs China 1 (Deadpool locked in US to reach it)

$200m: US 1 vs China 1

$150m: US 1 vs China 4 (including KFP3)

$100m: US 2 vs China 5

 

Last year, during the 2 first months of the year, China had just 1 film able to reach $150m. This year we already have 4. We will see what happens.

China is more top heavy than domestic.  A bigger flock mentality exists there. Only 4 movies made anything during CNY, while 10 or more can make money during xmas. Domestics top ten average about 25% of total BO. China is closed to 35%.  With their population and screen count the could very well have more $200m movie soon but they need to spread out the sales and bump the amount of $50m movies.

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12 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

China is more top heavy than domestic.  A bigger flock mentality exists there. Only 4 movies made anything during CNY, while 10 or more can make money during xmas. Domestics top ten average about 25% of total BO. China is closed to 35%.  With their population and screen count the could very well have more $200m movie soon but they need to spread out the sales and bump the amount of $50m movies.

Sure. Probably the limited amount of releases allowed and to fix attention in just a few films is the reason there are not more moderate hits ($50m). However, the amount of that kind of films has increased a lot in recent years. We can look at the number of films that have crossed 300m Yuan, which today means about $46m (I prefer to take a local figure to not have problems with ER). And we have this evolution:

 

300m Yuan

2010: 5 films

2011: 8

2012: 15

2013: 22

2014: 32

2015: 45

 

And if we look at the equivalent to 4*$50m=$200m (4*300m Yuan = 1.2b Yuan), we have this:

2010: 1 film

2011: 0

2012: 2

2013: 1

2014: 1

2015: 7

 

The amount of 300m Yuan films has increased in a bigger proportion (x9) than the amount of 1.2b Yuan (x7) in last 6 years. I guess we will have to wait a bit more until the market become more mature, but the trend seems promising, in spite of episodes like last CNY where as you well said, the attention was focused in just 4 films.

 

Edit: The proportion of films in China over 1.2b Yuan relative to 300m Yuan is quite similar to the proportion of films in US over $200m relative to $50m. In 2015 we have this: 

 

US: 57 films over $50m and 9 films over $200m (6.33:1)

China: 45 films over 300m Yuan and 7 films over 1.2b Yuan (6.43:1)

 

They are not so far in this kind of behaviour.

Edited by peludo
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On 4/12/2015 at 2:50 PM, No Prisoners said:

The slow down begins next year. I say less than 20% growth occurs and the flattening of the curve begins the economic numbers suggest.

 

Contest: I'll buy a gold account for the closest to pick the percentage increase or decrease, if you dare, for next year's CBO.

I'll go with 18.2%. Number must be posted here by 12/31/15. % increase will be base on Yuan

Minimum Increments of .2%

 

I know I'm late but whatever. I predict a 10.3% increase over last year.

 

It seems like growth is slowing down and I'm not sure anymore that China will pass DOM this decade. I've also noticed that the Chinese GDP last year was $10.36 thousand billion while the Box office was $6.77 billion, while NA's GDP (US + CAN) was $19.21 thousand billion with a BO worth $11.1 billion. That means that China's BO was worth .065% of the GDP while NA's BO represented 0.058% of the GDP. In fact, almost every major country in the World has a lower BO:GDP ratio than China with the exception of South Korea (at around 0.1%). This makes me think that China's Box office will soon reach its ceiling. It doesn't seem possible for the BO to sustain 25%+ yearly increments while the GDP only increases 5-7% (or possibly even less given the latest speculations). So I think that either ticket prices will be lowered or cinema attendance will hit a wall. In both scenarios, the BO will not grow by much.

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Zootopia 2, released in 2022, will be the first movie to make the equivalent of $1 billion in China.


Hey, it could happen.

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