What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

[POTUS 2020]

On Friday, May 13, 2016 at 7:23 PM, keysersoze123 said:

I wont be surprised if Avatar 2 makes "just" 300m whenever it is released. I am sure predictions would be 1B+ for sure.

Can't wait to see kal's posts

[POTUS 2020]

June is going to be up 10% or less. The second quarter will be down between 8-10% with year up around 20% at the midpoint of the year. July will be a tough month to improve upon with 5.5B in sales last year. The year is shaping up to increase 15-20%. Just 10-15% in dollars. $7.5-8.0b

 

http://deadline.com/2016/06/warcraft-box-office-analysis-china-future-1201772400/

 

China’s box office is expected to overtake North America next year; it has also grown massively in the past few years to be the largest offshore territory on most films, and can often dwarf domestic returns. Think big-ticket titles like Terminator: Genisys ($89.8M domestic/$113M China) and Legendary’s own Pacific Rim ($102M domestic/$112M China). The latter film is now getting a sequel and recently cast The Force Awakens’ John Boyega to star.

 

Next year is not happening

 

[keysersoze123]

As I said earlier it will depend on local blockbusters. We have not seen anything huge since mermaid. Would any of the summer movies at least gross 2B yuan?

[POTUS 2020]

15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

As I said earlier it will depend on local blockbusters. We have not seen anything huge since mermaid. Would any of the summer movies at least gross 2B yuan?

Like the $500m movie is rare and cant be predicted(except for SW7) in dom, you cant say what if any will do 2B, that's up to GA reception. Mermaid, MH and FF7 were surprises as was JW in Domestic

 

July will need a 2B earner to best last years 5.5B. The year is now up 20% in yuan/14% in dollars. If July stays flat or worse, a real possibility, the year will be up 16%/10%

The yuan just took a hit is now 6.68 and getting weaker, that's a 7.5% difference from last July's 6.21.  The BO will need to do 5.91B just to stay flat in dollars in July.

 

	2013	2014		2015			2016
Jan	1650	1920	+16.4%	2590	+34.9%	3849	+48.6%
Feb	2120	3240	+52.8%	4050	+25.0%	6870	+69.6%
Mar	1390	1620	+16.5%	2910	+79.6%	3750	+28.9%
Apr	1790	1770	-1.1%	4090	+131.1%	3000	-26.7%
May	2130	2220	+4.2%	3180	+43.2%	3001	-5.6%
Jun	1820	2720	+49.5%	3286	+20.8%	3800	+15.6%
Jul	1790	3610	+101.7%	5500	+52.4%
Aug	2320	2550	+9.9%	3200	+25.5%
Sep	1300	1800	+38.5%	3200	+77.8%
Oct	1600	2760	+72.5%	4200	+52.2%
Nov	1560	2300	+47.4%	2750	+19.6%
Dec	2200	2460	+11.8%	4000	+62.6%
YTD	19,470	28,970	+48.8%	42,956	+48.3%
($M)		$4,665		$6,829
			Thru-	20,106		24,270	+20.7%
			June2015	$3,238		$3,705	+14.4%

 

Edited June 28, 2016 by No Prisoners

[titanic2187]

Last year 's July had 4 weekend while this year has 5 weekend, if BO stay flat, it doesn't mean good

[Agafin]

4 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Last year 's July had 4 weekend while this year has 5 weekend, if BO stay flat, it doesn't mean good

 

It's not going to stay flat, it'll drop. I'm thinking by the end of July, the bo will be at ¥28.7b or so ( about ¥4.5b July), only 12% ahead of last year's ¥25.6b at the same point. I predicted a yoy increase of 10.3% back in March which was by far the lowest prediction but it's now looking like it might have been too generous as the lead over last year keeps dwinding. Chinese BO is flattening. The Hollywood part of the market is now fully mature and perhaps declining even. Increasing the amount of imported movies (from the current 34) or suppressing protection periods will probably have no effect on the BO given that it is value per gdp per capita now exceeds that of most countries meaning that the market is close to its natural ceiling relative to the GDP.

 

The fact that the movies released this year didn't seem to please the Chinese audiences very much obviously plays a role as well. Next Summer should be better especially with the likes of Transformers and FF8 (if we count late April as 'Summer') but I doubt the first quarter will match this year since we had The Mermaid's huge $500m gross as well as Zoo's surprise breakout.

[POTUS 2020]

20 hours ago, Agafin said:

 

It's not going to stay flat, it'll drop. I'm thinking by the end of July, the bo will be at ¥28.7b or so ( about ¥4.5b July), only 12% ahead of last year's ¥25.6b at the same point. I predicted a yoy increase of 10.3% back in March which was by far the lowest prediction but it's now looking like it might have been too generous as the lead over last year keeps dwinding. Chinese BO is flattening. The Hollywood part of the market is now fully mature and perhaps declining even. Increasing the amount of imported movies (from the current 34) or suppressing protection periods will probably have no effect on the BO given that it is value per gdp per capita now exceeds that of most countries meaning that the market is close to its natural ceiling relative to the GDP.

 

The fact that the movies released this year didn't seem to please the Chinese audiences very much obviously plays a role as well. Next Summer should be better especially with the likes of Transformers and FF8 (if we count late April as 'Summer') but I doubt the first quarter will match this year since we had The Mermaid's huge $500m gross as well as Zoo's surprise breakout.

funny you brought that up I was just working on an updated table for BO/GDP. That's the primary indicator.  Many look at the trajectory over the years and assume 30%+ will continue because the population is so large, more moving to the city and more theaters to be built. The facts are; the city population is increasing by less than 2%, GDP is down to 6% growth and that is considered to be fudged. With BO/GDP at the level of mature markets, the growth will now rely on GDP and urban migration, 2-6% per year. The audience is maturing and rejecting some sequels like the rest of the world as we see some of them barely match their predecessors now. Deadline recently mentioned that China is expected to pass Domestic again, they haven't looked at the recent numbers and realized that bandwagon is dead.

 

July is tracking at minus 700-800m YoY -13-15%

 

Where were you last year when everyone was saying I was dead wrong? Nice call in March while the BO was going through the roof YoY still. Firedeep blasted me when he said under 20% growth was not happening, I wonder what he is thinking now?

 

	GDP (000)	GDP Growth	BO (000)	BO Growth	BO/GDP	Urban %
South Korea	1,400,000		1,600		0.114%	82
Australia	1,450,000		1,000		0.069%	89
Mexico	1,280,000		870		0.068%	79
China 2016	11,300,000	+4.5%	7,500	+10%	0.066%	57
France	2,850,000		1,800		0.063%	79
China 2015	10,800,000	+5.0%	6,800	+42%	0.063%	56
Russia	1,326,000		796		0.060%	74
UK	3,050,000		1,700		0.056%	82
Dom 2016	20,000,000		11,000		0.055%	81
Spain	1,400,000		700		0.050%	77
China 2014	10,400,000	+5.8%	4,800	+41%	0.046%	55
Japan	4,600,000		2,000		0.043%	92
Italy	2,150,000		800		0.037%	67
China 2013	9,500,000	+12.0%	3,400	+32%	0.036%	54
Brazil	2,350,000		800		0.034%	80
Germany	3,850,000		1,300		0.034%	69
China 2012	8,500,000	+12.0%	2,600	+34%	0.031%	53
China 2011	7,500,000	+15.0%	1,900	+33%	0.025%	52
Average	5,761,444		2,854		0.053%	71

 

BO at .050 -.070% of GDP is the sweet spot for large established markets. China will be near the top of that range after this year.  SK is an outlier. They love movies and they make good ones that gross $80-100m in a market that is a little more that 1/10th the size of domestic. If china was to become like an SK outlier it will have to get its urban population up to 80%. That will take 25 years at the current rate migration.

Below .050% are: Italy and Germany with lower urban populations.  Brazil is a growing market. Japan is an aging market.

The economy has been exploding since the 90s, the BO didn't get going until 04, it was playing catch up at twice the growth rate of GDP and caught up in half the time.

I think we see flat to up 10%, with some down years mixed in, in the years ahead leading to an average annual increase of 3-5%.

Edited July 21, 2016 by No Prisoners

[peludo]

I recognize that last year I was thinking that growth would continue. Maybe I thought it would slow down, but not so quickly. Thank you, @No Prisoners, for clarifying the global situation of the country.

 

I have taken the biggest films released in January-July period in both 2015 and 2016 and we have this:

 

1. The Mermaid: 3.391b Yuan

2. Monster Hunt: 2.440b

3. F7: 2.427b

4. Zootopia: 1.530b

5. Warcraft: 1.472b

6. Age of Ultron: 1.464b

7. Jurassic World: 1.421b

8. Civil War: 1.246b

9. The Monkey King 2: 1.201b

10. Jian Bing Man: 1.160b

11. Man from Macau 3: 1.119b

12. Kung Fu Panda 3: 1.002b

13. Jungle Book: 979m

14. Man from Macau 2: 975m

15. TMK: 956m

16: Star Wars 7: 825m

17. X-Men: Apocalypse: 803m

18. Finding Mr. Right 2: 787m

19. Ip Man 3: 770m

20. Hobbit 3: 766m

 

(In red, 2016 films)

 

- For now, The Mermaid has been the Monster Hunt of 2016, the local beast.

- Civil War has had the same behaviour than in the rest of the world relative to Ultron, so there is a concidence with what you say: they already do not buy massively every sequel.

- Zootopia has been the nice surprise. It can fit with Jurassic World last year.

- Warcraft could have probably been the F7 of the year but since quality has not been good, again, Chinese people do not buy everything as they used to.

- Monkey King 2 and Macau 3 have been New Year releases that have boosted a lot relative to last year (in this top 20, just Macau 2 is a 2015 film).

- And finally we have had several HLW films that are already in 800-1b league (KFP3, Jungle Book, SW7, X-Men) when last year they were in 600-800 league (Hobbit, San Andreas). I still see a relevant increase here.

 

Even if Independence Day 2 had done what it was supposed to or a local film had broken in July, we should not deny that there are obvious signs that Chinese people are becoming more quality demanding (beyond, of course, of economics parameters).

 

Said this, not everything are bad signs. Including July, there were 11 films over 600m Yuan in 2015. This year there have already been 15 (16, if Skiptrace is able to reach it). Not bad.

 

Concerning thread question, maybe until early 20s we will not see China passing US.

[cannastop]

I'm starting to think that it might be impossible for a Hollywood movie to make over $1 billion in China alone. It will only have 5 weekends to do it, right? Would it be something like this?

 

Week 1: ¥2.8B

 

Week 2: ¥1.8B

 

Week 3: ¥1B

 

Week 4: ¥600M

 

Week 5: ¥300M

 

Total: ¥6.5B (Approx $1B, whatever the exchange rate is)

 

Seems wildly implausible to me that it could happen any time soon.

 

[cannastop]

@No Prisoners

@Agafin

 

Those GDP numbers are going by nominal GDP. If you look at China by Purchasing Power Parity, it's $19.5 trillion rather than $11.4 trillion.

 

This suggests that there might be room for significant expansion of the movie industry in China if we look at GDP as a limiting factor.

 

Also, South Korea might look a bit less like an outlier if we consider the GDP (PPP)

 

$1.6 billion/$1.85 trillion = .086%

Edited August 7, 2016 by cannastop

[AniNate]

This may be the first year China's #1 film is bigger than America's

[POTUS 2020]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

@No Prisoners

@Agafin

 

Those GDP numbers are going by nominal GDP. If you look at China by Purchasing Power Parity, it's $19.5 trillion rather than $11.4 trillion.

 

This suggests that there might be room for significant expansion of the movie industry in China if we look at GDP as a limiting factor.

 

Also, South Korea might look a bit less like an outlier if we consider the GDP (PPP)

 

$1.6 billion/$1.85 trillion = .086%

I did look at ppp originally and it didn't quite make sense.  I think the ppp is better used to reflect how more tickets are sold due lower cost of living but at a lower price.  The other limiting factor is is the GDP is spread out over so many people. So even though ppp is much higher the per capita rate is still very low. So there is less disposable income per household to be spent on movies.

[POTUS 2020]

http://deadline.com/2016/08/china-box-office-overtake-us-2017-1201805401/

China Box Office Still On Track To Overtake U.S. In 2017 Despite Recent Slump: Report

 

They are referring to US market only at 10.2B, not all of domestic

 

Bloomberg is estimating a 22% increase for next year to 10.4B, however this year is shaping up to be in the mid 7Bs. That would take the market to just 9B.

They are not calculating currency changes or the current annual increase.

[Lihongkim]

On 8/7/2016 at 5:34 AM, cannastop said:

I'm starting to think that it might be impossible for a Hollywood movie to make over $1 billion in China alone. It will only have 5 weekends to do it, right? Would it be something like this?

 

Week 1: ¥2.8B

 

Week 2: ¥1.8B

 

Week 3: ¥1B

 

Week 4: ¥600M

 

Week 5: ¥300M

 

Total: ¥6.5B (Approx $1B, whatever the exchange rate is)

 

Seems wildly implausible to me that it could happen any time soon.

 

Week 1 = OW / 3 days. I think even movie can earn $1B from China, it is impossible that it can earn 2.8B from its 3 days OW. If the movie is good, it will do well on the following weeks and of course extension.  SW7 did nearly $1B in NA, yet it's OW is just 248M, far from 2.8B / 420M +. 

 

I think if the movie has good wom, 2nd week (7 days) >/= ow (3 days). 

 

On 8/7/2016 at 11:20 AM, tribefan695 said:

This may be the first year China's #1 film is bigger than America's

I will wait until Rouge One comes out. Still remember American was crazy about SW7 last year. 

 

 

Edited August 19, 2016 by Lihongkim

[eXtacy]

On 19/08/2016 at 4:25 PM, No Prisoners said:

http://deadline.com/2016/08/china-box-office-overtake-us-2017-1201805401/

China Box Office Still On Track To Overtake U.S. In 2017 Despite Recent Slump: Report

 

They are referring to US market only at 10.2B, not all of domestic

 

Bloomberg is estimating a 22% increase for next year to 10.4B, however this year is shaping up to be in the mid 7Bs. That would take the market to just 9B.

They are not calculating currency changes or the current annual increase.

 

Next year it will definitely be the biggest in terms of admissions in the world.

 

Starting to wonder how long it will be before China movies start penetrating the international markets with notable success. Their films are still ways of in terms of quality. Maybe another decade.

[POTUS 2020]

On ‎8‎/‎28‎/‎2016 at 5:52 PM, eXtacy said:

 

Next year it will definitely be the biggest in terms of admissions in the world.

 

Starting to wonder how long it will be before China movies start penetrating the international markets with notable success. Their films are still ways of in terms of quality. Maybe another decade.

admission will be bigger than the US but will not be biggest in the world. at a $5 average China may sell 1.6-1.8m tickets next year. India sells close to 3b tickets

[Agafin]

On 27/7/2015 at 7:29 PM, Cynosure said:

It's insane how just a few years after surpassing the NA box office China will completely leave it in the dust. By 2020 it will probably be around twice as big and with still enormous growth potential.

 

On 4/5/2016 at 5:07 PM, Agafin said:

 

Do you still believe this?

 

On 4/5/2016 at 5:39 PM, Cynosure said:

Twice as big, no. Leave it in the dust, yes.

 

It's now shockingly possible that NA might have a bigger YoY increase than China this year (China might drop actually). You really jinxed it heh.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Agafin

[POTUS 2020]

Columnist are now realizing that passing domestic may not be anytime soon.

 

http://variety.com/2016/film/box-office/weak-september-china-box-office-1201886747/

 

September showed more of the slowdown that has gripped the Chinese theatrical market since mid-year.

Box office of $342 million (RMB2.30 billion) for the month was down 43% compared with August. And it was 33% weaker than September last year, according to data from Ent Group.

The latest numbers further dent the prospect ofChina’s box office overtaking that of North America any time soon. That prospect had been hailed loudly at the beginning of the year after China’s cinema market leaped by 49% in 2015.

Box office this year is still running ahead of last year, but at a much slower expansionary pace.

For the first nine months of this year the cumulative total is $5.28 billion (RMB35.4 billion), up only 8.3% compared with $4.88 billion (RMB32.8 billion) between January and the end of September last year. Admissions are running ahead by 14% at 1.05 billion, compared with 923 million in the first three quarters of 2015.

(Reflecting the more than 5% weakening of the Chinese currency over the past year, the year-on-year growth rate when expressed in constant dollar terms is a mere 2%.)

October may be down 800-1b at the current rate. The YTD will be negative in dollars.

 

[eXtacy]

Perhaps this is just a result of an absurd increase last year, nearly 50% is bonkers, and 2017 will be back to expected increases.

[NCsoft]

On 10/15/2016 at 9:44 AM, No Prisoners said:

Columnist are now realizing that passing domestic may not be anytime soon.

 

http://variety.com/2016/film/box-office/weak-september-china-box-office-1201886747/

 

September showed more of the slowdown that has gripped the Chinese theatrical market since mid-year.

Box office of $342 million (RMB2.30 billion) for the month was down 43% compared with August. And it was 33% weaker than September last year, according to data from Ent Group.

The latest numbers further dent the prospect ofChina’s box office overtaking that of North America any time soon. That prospect had been hailed loudly at the beginning of the year after China’s cinema market leaped by 49% in 2015.

Box office this year is still running ahead of last year, but at a much slower expansionary pace.

For the first nine months of this year the cumulative total is $5.28 billion (RMB35.4 billion), up only 8.3% compared with $4.88 billion (RMB32.8 billion) between January and the end of September last year. Admissions are running ahead by 14% at 1.05 billion, compared with 923 million in the first three quarters of 2015.

(Reflecting the more than 5% weakening of the Chinese currency over the past year, the year-on-year growth rate when expressed in constant dollar terms is a mere 2%.)

October may be down 800-1b at the current rate. The YTD will be negative in dollars.

 

 

Any guesses on how Nov/Dec might perform? Is it quite likely that the entire year 2016 will be down in dollars compared to 2015?