What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

[Avatree]

I agree that the only ones that have any potential for $300M are Jurassic World and Pacific Rim.

What about Bumblebee? I know Transformers 5 did worse than TF4 but could the next one increase? Not sure.

[peludo]

9 minutes ago, Treeing Me Apart said:

I agree that the only ones that have any potential for $300M are Jurassic World and Pacific Rim.

What about Bumblebee? I know Transformers 5 did worse than TF4 but could the next one increase? Not sure.

No idea. Logic say that it should be big but, that big? who knows

[sgchn40]

Surprised this news is not recorded here for over a month. http://variety.com/2018/film/asia/china-box-office-global-biggest-first-quarter-2018-1202742159/

[POTUS 2020]

On 5/20/2018 at 7:30 AM, sgchn40 said:

Surprised this news is not recorded here for over a month. http://variety.com/2018/film/asia/china-box-office-global-biggest-first-quarter-2018-1202742159/

CNY pumps up the first quarter.  China will win February every year, that's for sure

Still a ways to go for a yearly beat

[POTUS 2020]

ITs been a while since I updated.  

Looks like the percentage of BO to GDP is leveling off at .069%.  I doubt it gets up to SK levels. Its impressive that its BO/GDP is above all other established markets, China does have a good PPP allowing extra disposable income for movies.

The economy has had explosive growth since the early 90's, BO didn't start to pop until the early 2000's. BO has now caught up to the economy. Additional BO growth will rely on GDP growth going forward which just hit a 25 year low at 6.5%. 

While the BO has slowed annually for the last 3 years, CNY remained to have big gains YoY with theater expansion at over 20% accounting for a few percent of the total BO annual increase.  However, CNY 2019 was flat YoY even with 20% more seats.  This could be a sign of its first negative year

	GDP (m)	GDP Growth	BO (m)	BO Growth	BO/GDP	Urban %
South Korea	1,400,000		1,600		0.114%	82
China 2018	13,000,000	6.5%	9,000	10%	0.069%	59
Australia	1,450,000		1,000		0.069%	89
Mexico	1,280,000		870		0.068%	79
China 2017	12,200,000	+9%	8,200	+18%	0.067%	58
China 2016	11,200,000	+4.5%	6,970	3%	0.062%	57
France	2,850,000		1,800		0.063%	79
China 2015	11,000,000	+5.8%	6,800	+42%	0.062%	56
Russia	1,326,000		796		0.060%	74
UK	3,050,000		1,700		0.056%	82
Dom 2016	20,000,000		11,000		0.055%	81
Dom 2018	22,200,000		11,990		0.054%
Spain	1,400,000		700		0.050%	77
China 2014	10,400,000	+8.5%	4,800	+41%	0.046%	55
Japan	4,600,000		2,000		0.043%	92
Italy	2,150,000		800		0.037%	67
China 2013	9,600,000	+12.0%	3,400	+32%	0.035%	54
Brazil	2,350,000		800		0.034%	80
Germany	3,850,000		1,300		0.034%	69
China 2012	8,500,000	+12.0%	2,600	+34%	0.031%	53
China 2011	7,500,000	+15.0%	1,900	+33%	0.025%	52
Average	7,205,048		3,811		0.054%	70

Edited February 18, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[POTUS 2020]

If they build another 10,000 screens this year, they might over saturate the market and many will run into financial difficulty.

CNY was flat this year. After booming well above annual market growth.  With a flat CNY it will be interesting to see how the year plays out

 

CNY	2017	2018
1	1,277	1,445
2	1,028	997
3	942	927
4	868	849
5	818	827
6	802	770
Total	5,735	5,815

Post CNY
7	656	602
8	530	446
9	519	376
10	513	668
10 day Tot	7,953	7,907

Admission growth was the lowest since 2008. 

Adm per screen was below 30k for the first time for the data we have.

Revenue fell below the 14 year average and well below the 9 year average since Rev p/screen cleared 1m.

A flat CNY could lead to a flat or down year and Rev p/scr could fall well under 1m. 

If so, we will read article by years end that the theater business is trouble, just like we read articles about CBO slowing a year after this thread started in 2015

	Screens	% Inc	Adm(m)	Adm Inc	Adm p/sc	BO YM	% Inc	BO Yp/sc	BO $M	% Inc	Tix Ave
2003						920			125
2004						1,514	64.6%		187	49.6%
2005	4,400		157		35,682	2,046	35.1%	465,000	250	33.7%	$1.59
2006	4,700	6.8%	176	12.1%	37,447	2,620	28.1%	557,447	342	36.8%	$1.94
2007	5,600	19.1%	195	10.8%	34,821	3,327	27.0%	594,107	438	28.1%	$2.25
2008	5,700	1.8%	209	7.2%	36,667	4,342	30.5%	761,754	586	33.8%	$2.80
2009	6,300	10.5%	263	25.8%	41,746	6,206	42.9%	985,079	873	49.0%	$3.32
2010	7,800	23.8%	290	10.3%	37,179	10,172	63.9%	1,304,103	1,452	66.3%	$5.01
2011	9,200	17.9%	370	27.6%	40,217	13,115	28.9%	1,425,543	1,929	32.9%	$5.21
2012	14,000	52.2%	462	24.9%	33,000	17,073	30.2%	1,219,500	2,586	34.1%	$5.60
2013	18,100	29.3%	612	32.5%	33,812	21,769	27.5%	1,202,707	3,400	31.5%	$5.56
2014	23,600	30.4%	830	35.6%	35,169	29,639	36.2%	1,255,890	4,665	37.2%	$5.62
2015	31,500	33.5%	1215	46.4%	38,571	44,000	48.5%	1,396,825	7,020	50.5%	$5.78
2016	41,179	30.7%	1372	12.9%	33,318	45,710	3.9%	1,110,032	6,970	-0.7%	$5.08
2017	50,776	23.3%	1620	18.1%	31,905	55,910	22.3%	1,101,111	8,200	17.6%	$5.06
2018	60,079	18.3%	1765	9.0%	29,378	60,980	9.1%	1,014,997	9,000	9.8%	$5.10
	1265%	23%	1024%	22%	36,541	2880%	33%	1,028,150	3500%	36%	351%
	05 to 18	Average^	05 to 18	Average^	Average^	05 to 18	Average^	Average^	05 to 18	Average^	05 to 18
								1,225,634
								10 to 18^

With Chinese economy slowing and BO finally at par with the economy and slowing with it, I still think it will well into the 2020's before CBO passes DomBO. Unless Domestic continues to be down 20% YoY

Edited February 19, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[DeeCee]

Thank you.

 

It was spam. 

[MattW]

Relevant:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-film-market-eclipse-us-next-year-study-1215348

This year, the U.S. box office may end up at $12.11 billion compared to China's $11.05 billion, according to new projections from PricewaterhouseCoopers. But in 2020, China's fast-growing sales at the box office will exceed that of the U.S., $12.28 billion to $11.93 billion — and the country will dominate for the foreseeable future.

China, with its population of 1.4 billion compared with 328.9 million in the U.S., has been selling more movie tickets than any other country since 2015, but 2020 marks the more significant sea change: the first time it will lead the world in revenue. PwC analyst C.J. Bangah notes that some may find it surprising that the theatrical industry overall will still grow through 2023 — 4 percent annually worldwide and 1 percent yearly in the U.S. "With on-demand home video, there were a lot of folks who thought cinema would die," says Bangah. "But tickets, admissions and screens are all projected to rise."

 

 

I think they're being a bit too bullish on North America's 12.1b this year and next year's 11.9b next year, but what about China's 11 this year and 12.2 next year?

[cannastop]

I have no idea about this subject, especially considering China's currency. I don't know what it would be if it floated. @A Panda of Ice and Fire, do you know anything about international currency?

[cannastop]

17 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I have no idea about this subject, especially considering China's currency. I don't know what it would be if it floated. @A Panda of Ice and Fire, do you know anything about international currency?

There have been times when people have said the Renminbi is overvalued and they have also said it's been undervalued. I don't know what's the case now.

[The Panda]

7 hours ago, cannastop said:

I have no idea about this subject, especially considering China's currency. I don't know what it would be if it floated. @A Panda of Ice and Fire, do you know anything about international currency?

You would use either the exchange rate or real exchange rate to convert to US dollars.  That’s tedious so I just assume Mojo’s estimates are accurate

[cannastop]

24 minutes ago, A Panda of Ice and Fire said:

You would use either the exchange rate or real exchange rate to convert to US dollars.  That’s tedious so I just assume Mojo’s estimates are accurate

That's perilous, when it comes to Japan.

[peludo]

12 hours ago, MattW said:

Relevant:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-film-market-eclipse-us-next-year-study-1215348

This year, the U.S. box office may end up at $12.11 billion compared to China's $11.05 billion, according to new projections from PricewaterhouseCoopers. But in 2020, China's fast-growing sales at the box office will exceed that of the U.S., $12.28 billion to $11.93 billion — and the country will dominate for the foreseeable future.

China, with its population of 1.4 billion compared with 328.9 million in the U.S., has been selling more movie tickets than any other country since 2015, but 2020 marks the more significant sea change: the first time it will lead the world in revenue. PwC analyst C.J. Bangah notes that some may find it surprising that the theatrical industry overall will still grow through 2023 — 4 percent annually worldwide and 1 percent yearly in the U.S. "With on-demand home video, there were a lot of folks who thought cinema would die," says Bangah. "But tickets, admissions and screens are all projected to rise."

 

 

I think they're being a bit too bullish on North America's 12.1b this year and next year's 11.9b next year, but what about China's 11 this year and 12.2 next year?

If I am not wrong, China grossed 60b Yuan last year, what today means $8.8b. Unless there is a bunch of local big films during the second half of the year, I do not see the Chinese market increasing a 25% this year, so those $11b projected for this year seem a chimera. Maybe we will see the market landing in $9b territory this year, but still far from the $12b of DOM market.

[POTUS 2020]

On 6/5/2019 at 8:30 PM, MattW said:

Relevant:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-film-market-eclipse-us-next-year-study-1215348

This year, the U.S. box office may end up at $12.11 billion compared to China's $11.05 billion, according to new projections from PricewaterhouseCoopers. But in 2020, China's fast-growing sales at the box office will exceed that of the U.S., $12.28 billion to $11.93 billion — and the country will dominate for the foreseeable future.

China, with its population of 1.4 billion compared with 328.9 million in the U.S., has been selling more movie tickets than any other country since 2015, but 2020 marks the more significant sea change: the first time it will lead the world in revenue. PwC analyst C.J. Bangah notes that some may find it surprising that the theatrical industry overall will still grow through 2023 — 4 percent annually worldwide and 1 percent yearly in the U.S. "With on-demand home video, there were a lot of folks who thought cinema would die," says Bangah. "But tickets, admissions and screens are all projected to rise."

 

 

I think they're being a bit too bullish on North America's 12.1b this year and next year's 11.9b next year, but what about China's 11 this year and 12.2 next year?

 

On 6/6/2019 at 9:22 AM, peludo said:

If I am not wrong, China grossed 60b Yuan last year, what today means $8.8b. Unless there is a bunch of local big films during the second half of the year, I do not see the Chinese market increasing a 25% this year, so those $11b projected for this year seem a chimera. Maybe we will see the market landing in $9b territory this year, but still far from the $12b of DOM market.

CBO on track to drop 5-10% this year and the XR is on pace to be a few percent weaker for the year

57B(-5%)/6.8= $8.38B

As per usual writers don't know stats.  $11B 😂

 

[keysersoze123]

This will happen. But needs more local breakouts. Plus in few years china will have twice the cinema screens that US has and so could potentially have 2 big blockbusters every week. I would like movies to have longer run( at least 2 months) while retaining showtimes based on demand. At some point China could increase quota as well.

 

Not sure about next year but should happen by 2022.

[POTUS 2020]

On 6/19/2019 at 11:33 PM, keysersoze123 said:

This will happen. But needs more local breakouts. Plus in few years china will have twice the cinema screens that US has and so could potentially have 2 big blockbusters every week. I would like movies to have longer run( at least 2 months) while retaining showtimes based on demand. At some point China could increase quota as well.

 

Not sure about next year but should happen by 2022.  Nope

Waited a few months to respond to you for year end data. A few things

• BO to GDP has normalized.
• BO now needs GDP to grow and its slowing.
• 2018 was up 4% w/o fees. 
• 2019 was up 5% in yuan but just 1% in dollars.  A long way to get to $11.5B at this pace
• Build all the screens they can but disposable income is limited and its far more limited in third and fourth tier cities where new screens are going up.  Chart below proves this as they are just holiday goers.
• Blockbusters are few and far between at times, but if many come along, all make less.  When there are none the BO is dead for months then WW2 or NZ explode to new levels.

Interesting observation of growth from 2015 to 18 and 19.  Screens have more than doubled but BO is up just 39% in 4 years including 6% fees added in(. All of that growth is in just 13 movies.  4 films during 11 days of CNY, 3 films during 3 days of DBF, 3 films during 8 days of Autumn Fest and the biggest local summer block buster; The top two SH's consume any HLWD growth.  The new screens are just bringing in more people for the holidays or the occasional break out.  The masses aren't showing up in larger numbers for the other 45 weeks of the year

 

	Screens	Total BO(m)	BO p/scr	CNY	DBF	Autumn Fest	Top Local non holiday film	Top SH	#2 SH	BO w/o CNY..etc	BO p/scr w/o CNY..
2015	31,500	46,640	1,480,635	2,882	780	1,980	2,576	1,548	711	38,333	1,216,912
2018	60,000	61,000	1,016,667	7,773	1,078	1,760	3,100	2,390	2,012	42,887	714,783
2019	69,800	64,300	921,203	7,699	893	4,459	5,000	4,239	1,404	40,606	581,748

 

BO per screen down 38%(4th column) 1.48m down to 921k.  A lot of the new ones must be losing money(in 4th tier cities) and some of the existing ones are probably struggling due to over saturation in 1st tier.

Outside of the 7 weeks of holidays and a few blockbuster's 1st and 2nd weekends,  (last column), BO p/scr is down 52%,  1.216m to 581k

BO is close to flat from 15 to 19 outside of the 13 films(other 45 weekends). 38.3b to 40.6b or slightly down w/o fees.

 

I'll stick with 2030+.  Could be longer if their economy goes flat like Japan has after decades of huge growth . 

Another note. there are more middle aged people than youngsters.  There will be less 20, 30 and 40-somethings in the years to come

 

Edited January 4, 2020 by POTUS 2020

[Legion Again]

Top 2 SH about to take a HUGE hit 🤣    
 

Maybe if an MCU breaks out, that+Venom can try for 4B

Edited January 4, 2020 by Arendelle Legion

[POTUS 2020]

Annual update

Yuan BO up 5.4%.  The year was saved by NZ and the Oct holiday.  July censorship may have bolstered those films.  BO in $s up just .9%

Admissions per screen down 35% , 38.6k to 25.2k from 2015 to 2019 and nearly 10k admissions below the 15 year average. They need to stop building, we may see contraction at some point.

 

	Screens	% Inc	Adm(m)	Adm Inc	Adm p/sc	BO Ym	% Inc	BO Yp/sc	BO $m	% Inc	Tix Ave
2003						920			125
2004						1,514	64.6%		187	49.6%
2005	4,400		157		35,682	2,046	35.1%	465,000	250	33.7%	$1.59
2006	4,700	6.8%	176	12.1%	37,447	2,620	28.1%	557,447	342	36.8%	$1.94
2007	5,600	19.1%	195	10.8%	34,821	3,327	27.0%	594,107	438	28.1%	$2.25
2008	5,700	1.8%	209	7.2%	36,667	4,342	30.5%	761,754	586	33.8%	$2.80
2009	6,300	10.5%	263	25.8%	41,746	6,206	42.9%	985,079	873	49.0%	$3.32
2010	7,800	23.8%	290	10.3%	37,179	10,172	63.9%	1,304,103	1,452	66.3%	$5.01
2011	9,200	17.9%	370	27.6%	40,217	13,115	28.9%	1,425,543	1,929	32.9%	$5.21
2012	14,000	52.2%	462	24.9%	33,000	17,073	30.2%	1,219,500	2,586	34.1%	$5.60
2013	18,100	29.3%	612	32.5%	33,812	21,769	27.5%	1,202,707	3,400	31.5%	$5.56
2014	23,600	30.4%	830	35.6%	35,169	29,639	36.2%	1,255,890	4,665	37.2%	$5.62
2015	31,500	33.5%	1215	46.4%	38,571	44,000	48.5%	1,396,825	7,020	50.5%	$5.78
2016	41,179	30.7%	1372	12.9%	33,318	45,710	3.9%	1,110,032	6,970	-0.7%	$5.08
2017	50,776	23.3%	1620	18.1%	31,905	55,910	22.3%	1,101,111	8,200	17.6%	$5.06
2018	60,079	18.3%	1765	9.0%	29,378	60,980	9.1%	1,014,997	9,239	12.7%	$5.23
2019	69,800	16.2%	1765	0.0%	25,287	64,300	5.4%	921,203	9,319	0.9%	$5.28
05 to 19 increase	1486%	22%	1024%	20%	34,947	3043%	29%	1,021,020	3628%	36%	364%
	05 to 19	Average^	05 to 19	Average^	Average^	05 to 19	Average^	Average^	05 to 19	Average^	05 to 19
								1,225,634
								10 to 19^

From 4.5 years ago.  It does look like its flattening under $10b.  Perhaps a down 5% year is due like Domestic just had and slowly chopping higher from there

On 5/20/2015 at 5:55 AM, POTUS 2020 said:

I see a flattening of the curve soon. Its easy to have 20-40% gains when it starts with a small number and there is so much room to expand, but when it gets to the level that it is now it approaches a saturation point that quells it. Its going to break through 5.5b this year, with so many blockbusters and possibly a 40% increase it could be flat next year. If not I believe it will be under 10B when it does. Then like DOM it will have its up years and down with overall small growth.

Love quoting myself. Bigly(big league) call

[charlie Jatinder]

Box Office: India (China)

 

1998: $400mn from 1Bn admits ($134mn from 121mn admits)

2010: $1Bn from 600mn admits ($1.45Bn from 230mn admits)

2019: $1.65Bn from 750mn admits ($9.2Bn from 1.7Bn admits)

 

From being 3x of China 22 years ago to less than 20%.

 

In 1975 India box office was around $400mn Approx selling 1.7bn approx tickets. 

Box Office was 0.42% of GDP while today boxoffice is barely 0.05%.

Edited June 25, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

I think in normal circumstances, China is already ahead USA, a little behind USA+Canada. Last year was 64.3B Yuan, which if had 2012-2016 exchange rates would have been $10.3-10.7Bn which is more than what USA has ever done in a single year. It's just the ER due to China-US tensions were shit in 3/4th of 2019. 

 

So in the end, it's about ERs now and I think ERs will favour China is future. They were 8.3 in 90s and early 2000s, reached 6.85 in 2008 to eventually low 6 in mid 2010s and eventually rise due to USA trade war. I guess normalcy will soon be there and now it's all about exchange rates.