What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

[charlie Jatinder]

I know 2020 is an anomaly but USA is currently $1.9Bn and China is around $400mn.

 

China has two potential $300-400mn, TENET and Mulan can do $300mn in between them. 

 

If more local films like Better Days, Chinese New Year releases are allowed, we may get that.

[Jamiem]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I know 2020 is an anomaly but USA is currently $1.9Bn and China is around $400mn.

 

China has two potential $300-400mn, TENET and Mulan can do $300mn in between them. 

 

If more local films like Better Days, Chinese New Year releases are allowed, we may get that.

I think Canada might be enough to prevent China outgrossing Domestic. China over USA this year like you say is possible though. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Jamiem said:

I think Canada might be enough to prevent China outgrossing Domestic. China over USA this year like you say is possible though. 

Canada in normalcy do a billion dollar. We were looking at around 800-900mn this year, with half the year gone in bin, I wonder if it can.

 

Also will need US opening up for big films. Canada cant do much without those.

 

China has luxury of local films, few of wwhich were banned last year due to censorship and Chinese New Year releases which didnt release.

[Jamiem]

44 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Canada in normalcy do a billion dollar. We were looking at around 800-900mn this year, with half the year gone in bin, I wonder if it can.

 

Also will need US opening up for big films. Canada cant do much without those.

 

China has luxury of local films, few of wwhich were banned last year due to censorship and Chinese New Year releases which didnt release.

Yeah good point if there isn’t enough new releases Canada won’t perform nearly as well. Will be interesting to see how Tenet and New Mutants do, we will probably have a clearer picture in a months time. 

[keysersoze123]

I think China can win this. Let us see how domestic schedule goes. I wonder what @POTUS 2020 thinks at this point. 

[MrGlass2]

[TomCruiseTop]

Is it finally settled? Did China win? 

[POTUS 2020]

On 8/23/2020 at 4:46 AM, keysersoze123 said:

I think China can win this. Let us see how domestic schedule goes. I wonder what @POTUS 2020 thinks at this point. 

It looks like China will win. An asterisk year.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/16/2020 at 9:48 PM, JamesCameronScholar said:

Is it finally settled? Did China win? 

China will win but it hasn't yet as some no-idea media sites said.

[charlie Jatinder]

	2020	2019	% +/-	2019	2020
January	¥2,242,958,600	¥3,378,975,800	-33.62%	$496,908,206	$324,126,965
February	¥119,100	¥11,164,331,400	-100.00%	$1,655,201,097	$17,014
March	¥384,500	¥4,160,692,800	-99.99%	$619,150,714	$54,929
April	¥11,200	¥4,723,836,800	-100.00%	$701,907,400	$1,600
May	¥8,900	¥3,716,825,300	-100.00%	$546,591,956	$1,271
June	¥22,900	¥4,186,114,000	-100.00%	$608,446,802	$3,271
July	¥213,065,100	¥5,756,227,600	-96.30%	$836,660,988	$30,437,871
August	¥3,399,237,000	¥7,835,175,000	-56.62%	$1,101,993,671	$492,643,043
September	¥2,432,237,100	¥3,596,174,800	-32.37%	$502,961,510	$356,633,006
October	¥5,140,000,000	¥8,315,947,500	-26.50%	$1,167,970,154	$759,231,905
November		¥3,237,066,200		$459,810,540
December		¥4,078,357,000		$582,622,429
	¥13,428,044,400	¥64,149,724,200		$9,280,225,468	$1,963,150,877

 

 

October should add another 1 billion plus. If Sacrifice works, may be that alone will add that much but PS so far are just decent. Will cross USA/Canada is currently $2.1 Billion. Japan will cross $1 billion this year as well.

[TomCruiseTop]

When will we see BO measured in RMB as standard? 

[Shaolian]

I have a feeling 2019 could be the final year where the US/Canada combined "Domestic" box office would be more than the Chinese one.

 

With the pandemic still raging across North America well into 2021, China's BO will retain its lead for next year as well.

 

It will be interesting to see what 2022 brings.

[charlie Jatinder]

Like, forever now(?)

[charlie Jatinder]

	2020	2019	% +/-	2019	2020
January	¥2,242,958,600	¥3,378,975,800	-33.62%	$496,908,000	$324,127,000
February	¥119,100	¥11,164,331,400	-100.00%	$1,655,201,000	$17,000
March	¥384,500	¥4,160,692,800	-99.99%	$619,151,000	$55,000
April	¥11,200	¥4,723,836,800	-100.00%	$701,907,000	$1,600
May	¥8,900	¥3,716,825,300	-100.00%	$546,592,000	$1,300
June	¥22,900	¥4,186,114,000	-100.00%	$608,447,000	$3,300
July	¥213,065,100	¥5,756,227,600	-96.30%	$836,661,000	$30,438,000
August	¥3,399,237,000	¥7,835,175,000	-56.62%	$1,101,994,000	$492,643,000
September	¥2,432,673,100	¥3,596,174,800	-32.35%	$502,962,000	$356,697,000
October	¥6,359,522,100	¥8,315,947,500	-26.50%	$1,167,970,000	$940,758,000
November	¥1,885,000,000	¥3,237,066,200	-26.50%	$459,811,000	$286,039,000
December		¥4,078,357,000		$582,622,000
	¥16,533,002,500	¥64,149,724,200		$9,280,226,000	$2,430,780,200

 

There's a chance of hitting $3Bn and ¥20Bn. In the last few months, difference between 2019 and 2020 is missing basically Hollywood films to large extent. If 2021 can be 10% down from 2019 local films, it will be ¥38.5Bn ($5.8mn), something pretty certain USA/Domestic ain't doing plus whatever they will get from Hollywood or whether it will be down from 2019 in first place.

[MattW]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-2024-lag-behind-2023-1235765702/

Quote

In China, box office revenue is expected to achieve a modest year-over-year gain of five percent in 2024 as the world’s most populous country embraces local fare over Hollywood product. Revenue is expected to hit $7.9 billion next year, compared to a projected $7.6 billion in 2023.

2024 might be the year. Personally I think US+Canada will come in much closer to 2022's level than THR and DL are saying, and if so this could be the big one!