JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM | 22 JUN 2018 | Universal | J.A. Bayona to direct | The Park is Closed | NOT THE FRANCHISE WARS THREAD

[Goffe]

Chris Pratt is good doing his Park snd Recration bit, buf that’s it. 

[MattW]

20 Thu

49 Fri

53 Sat

43 Sun

165

 

Doesn't look very difficult to get past 160 even though that's a big number.

And it could lead into a Monday of about $20m.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Is Goldblum's daughter from Lost World in this? If not, I'm out.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

12 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Is Goldblum's daughter from Lost World in this? If not, I'm out.

You mean Kelly Malcolm? Well, the actress who played her (Vanessa Lee Chester) hasn’t been in so many movies lately. So it’s a questionable debate if she’ll ever return to the series once more. At least she looks like a lovely gal nowadays. 😘😉

 

Though i really liked her character a lot. One of the more braver kid characters in the entire JP-franchise. I mean....she knocked a Raptor out the window! That’s just badass! 😎

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

You mean Kelly Malcolm? Well, the actress who played her (Vanessa Lee Chester) hasn’t been in so many movies lately. So it’s a questionable debate if she’ll ever return to the series once more. At least she looks like a lovely gal nowadays. 😘😉

 

Though i really liked her character a lot. One of the more braver kid characters in the entire JP-franchise. I mean....she knocked a Raptor out the window! That’s just badass! 😎

Damn near knocked a raptor out cold with her gymnastics prowess. More of that please.

[filmscholar]

46 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Is Goldblum's daughter from Lost World in this? If not, I'm out.

 

 

 

Wow, she would be a grown woman now in the timeline, lol.   Also for people trying to analyze how this going to do.   Remember 4th of July is going to be apart of it's run which falls on a Wednesday this year.  

[CoolioD1]

if the power couple Leoni/Macy aren't in this it's a hard pass from me.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

if the power couple Leoni/Macy aren't in this it's a hard pass from me.

 

I still wish the raptors would have eaten them right in front of the eyes of their son.

[dudalb]

I suspect it will do well, but nowhere near what JW did. No huge hook like JW had.

[Alli]

The trailer is performing very good on youtube. huge number of  likes in a short time for a family movie

[Cmasterclay]

I guess gotta ask it: Is Chris Pratt wearing a toupe now? Because his hair in both the Avengers trailers and this is super duper fake looking.

[MovieMan89]

It's only #4 on Fandango's most anticipated summer movie survey, behind that one event film and DP2 and Solo. Don't think it will actually go below Solo and Deadpool at the box office mind you, but this is really seeming like it will drop off massively. 

[Yandereprime101189]

I'm not going to overestimate Fallen Kingdom's earnings, but I'm not going to underestimate it either

 

OW: 140-160 million

Dom: 460 million

Global: 1.4 billion

Edited April 20, 2018 by Yandereprime101189

[John Marston]

31 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It's only #4 on Fandango's most anticipated summer movie survey, behind that one event film and DP2 and Solo. Don't think it will actually go below Solo and Deadpool at the box office mind you, but this is really seeming like it will drop off massively. 

 

 

Jurassic world was behind Fifty Shades of Grey and Mockingjay Part 2 in terms of anticipated 2015 movies 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Jurassic world was behind Fifty Shades of Grey and Mockingjay Part 2 in terms of anticipated 2015 movies 

Yes, but it was a reboot to a very long dormant franchise, in which the last released film has been a box office disappointment. Quite a bit different than what the hype should look like for a direct sequel to a $650m+ grosser. 

[Yandereprime101189]

And yet if you listen to the internet, you'd think Solo was about to flop and should Deadpool 2 not be good, it could drop like a rock. 

 

Fallen Kingdom's real enemy is going to be Incredibles 2

[Porthos]

I've been telling anyone who will listen that this year could very well be a repeat of the Summer of 2007.  Maybe even the Summer of 2007 on steroids if all the films are well received.

 

Lots of people just presume that the films will eat into each others gross (though with IW moving up a week, it should be pretty minimal for it).

 

But what if they don't eat into each other to a large degree?

 

Consider, the Summer of 2007, adj:

 

1	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$449,033,200	4,324	$201,635,100	4,252	5/4	8/19
2	Shrek the Third	P/DW	$430,606,000	4,172	$162,290,200	4,122	5/18	8/9
3	Transformers	P/DW	$425,970,900	4,050	$94,071,500	4,011	7/3	11/8
4	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	BV	$412,860,400	4,362	$153,088,300	4,362	5/25	10/4
5	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	WB	$389,622,600	4,285	$102,885,900	4,285	7/11	12/13
6	The Bourne Ultimatum	Uni.	$303,515,200	3,701	$92,445,400	3,660	8/3	11/29
7	Ratatouille	BV	$275,460,900	3,940	$62,748,800	3,940	6/29	12/13
8	The Simpsons Movie	Fox	$244,357,500	3,926	$98,787,500	3,922	7/27	12/20

 

Three of the top four opened within three weeks of each other for criminy's sakes.  And as @MovieMan89 has pointed out in the past, those grosses could have been even higher if some of the films didn't have somewhat mixed receptions.

 

Make OttP just a tiny bit more well received and one could have had FIVE 400m (adj) grossers debuting in a two month span.

 

Just saying that there's room for all of these films if the audience out there likes them.

[MovieMan89]

59 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I've been telling anyone who will listen that this year could very well be a repeat of the Summer of 2007.  Maybe even the Summer of 2007 on steroids if all the films are well received.

 

Lots of people just presume that the films will eat into each others gross (though with IW moving up a week, it should be pretty minimal for it).

 

But what if they don't eat into each other to a large degree?

 

Consider, the Summer of 2007, adj:

 

1	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$449,033,200	4,324	$201,635,100	4,252	5/4	8/19
2	Shrek the Third	P/DW	$430,606,000	4,172	$162,290,200	4,122	5/18	8/9
3	Transformers	P/DW	$425,970,900	4,050	$94,071,500	4,011	7/3	11/8
4	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	BV	$412,860,400	4,362	$153,088,300	4,362	5/25	10/4
5	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	WB	$389,622,600	4,285	$102,885,900	4,285	7/11	12/13
6	The Bourne Ultimatum	Uni.	$303,515,200	3,701	$92,445,400	3,660	8/3	11/29
7	Ratatouille	BV	$275,460,900	3,940	$62,748,800	3,940	6/29	12/13
8	The Simpsons Movie	Fox	$244,357,500	3,926	$98,787,500	3,922	7/27	12/20

 

Three of the top four opened within three weeks of each other for criminy's sakes.  And as @MovieMan89 has pointed out in the past, those grosses could have been even higher if some of the films didn't have somewhat mixed receptions.

 

Make OttP just a tiny bit more well received and one could have had FIVE 400m (adj) grossers debuting in a two month span.

 

Just saying that there's room for all of these films if the audience out there likes them.

I agree with you in the sense that it's possible to have 5 blockbusters that can surpass the adjusted cume of the 5 juggernauts that summer. Especially with better reception. Where I think it will differ drastically is in gross distribution. All 5 of those that year took a fairly equal share of the massive $2.1b adjusted pie. This summer I see it going more like this:

 

IW: 800

I2: 400

JW: 400

DP2: 300

Solo: 300

$2.2b

 

Summer 2007 definitely proves it's possible for a cume that high between them. And remember, not only did 3 of those 5 have toxic WOM, none of them had 3D/PLF inflation either. 

Edited April 20, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Lothar]

This will open 185/200+. Dom 550+ easily. not sure about WW maybe 1.5 WW

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I agree with you in the sense that it's possible to have 5 blockbusters that can surpass the adjusted cume of the 5 juggernauts that summer. Especially with better reception. Where I think it will differ drastically is in gross distribution. All 5 of those that year took a fairly equal share of the massive $2.1b adjusted pie. This summer I see it going more like this:

 

IW: 800

I2: 400

JW: 400

DP2: 300

Solo: 300

$2.2b

 

Summer 2007 definitely proves it's possible for a cume that high between them. And remember, not only did 3 of those 5 have toxic WOM, none of them had 3D/PLF inflation either. 

I'll 'like' the comment even though I think you're lowballing both DP2 and Solo and overestimating IW.

 

But in a way, I don't think the overestimation of IW matters (and this isn't a thread to discuss it anyway ).  And that's because of IW moving up a week.  Even if it Hulk Smashes everything, or should I say especially if it does, it'll chew up 300+m of its gross in its first week (at least).  Which is BEFORE those movies I listed earlier (the first was on May 4th). 

 

So let's use your 800 figure and my Week One figure of 300m ONLY for the sake on a theoretical argument (it'll probably be more than that, but I want to simplify things).

 

That then gives this potential May 4th to mid July period:

 

IW     500 (May 4th onward)

DP2   350

Solo  350 (I'm intentionally lowballing to forestall an argument )

Inc 2 400

JW2  400

Which is 2b on the nose.

 

Throw in Ocean's 8 at 175 and even Purge 4 at 75 if one wants and we get 2.25b from May 4th onward.

 

So, in a way, Infinity War moving to April helps everybody.  Including itself.

 

====

 

To put all of this a different way, once IW moved up a week I really did stop thinking of how it will affect the DP2/Solo/Inc 2/JW2 quadfecta.  Didn't even really enter my mind much when I made my last post.  The only real way I see IW affecting things if it sucks too much money/mindshare out of the entertainment budgets of households.  And, well, we'll see.