JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM | 22 JUN 2018 | Universal | J.A. Bayona to direct | The Park is Closed | NOT THE FRANCHISE WARS THREAD

[Cmasterclay]

Black Panther 340, Infinity War 390. But this is the Jurassic World Prediction thread, so I'll throw out 375 for that one.

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, Captain Craig said:

Win the summer? Black Panther is a winter film(Feb '18) so of course it's not going to "win the summer".

 

Yes. That is why it will not come close to winning the summer unless they change the release date.

[Captain Craig]

Marvel is not changing Black Panthers release date so it's moot. 

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

"Our flag ship franchises dropped by 300 and 400 m. But who cares?"

Do you imagine people didn't expect and wrote in advance in their year budgeting a good drop from Skyfall to Spectre ?

 

Older exec worked in a era before home video were sequels systematically went down (your only audience was from people that had seen it in theater the first time) even if it was Godfather 2.

 

Giant movie drop usually, it is a bit mathematic.

[WrathOfHan]

12 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

Deadpool 2 is pulling a Guardians 2.  I have 0 doubt it my mind. 

 

 

Agreed. The Bob Ross teaser solidified that IMO.

 

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Black Panther 340, Infinity War 390. But this is the Jurassic World Prediction thread, so I'll throw out 375 for that one.

Not you too, Clay!  

[RobinHood26]

-

Edited July 29, 2019 by RobinHood26

[Chewy]

475 for IW, 425 for this, 350-375 for Deadpool/Solo/Incredibles, 300+ for Panther, $1 over JL for Ant-Man

[tonytr87]

Could be fun, not saying it LOOKS bad, but that was a poor trailer. Pacing was shit and they treated Goldblum as an afterthought. But worst of all they basically spoiled the entire movie.

 

The hook of the film is that they're going back to save these dinosaurs. It's a will they or won't they situation, and the big money shots at the end of this trailer essentially spoil the answer to that question. They don't save them. How fucking depressing. 

 

PLUS, a bonus spoiler! The T-Rex saves Pratt from a Carnosaurus in the third act!

 

The only way this can be redeemed is if the volcano explosion actually occurs in the first act to set up the rest of the movie. 

Edited December 8, 2017 by tonytr87

[Fancyarcher]

Black Panther is doing well regardless of when its released. In fact I kinda think it's being underestimated a bit. 

11 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

 

They expect it. Its planned for. they run numbers. They know. 

Even Disney is probably expecting TLJ to drop. The only people who lose their minds are people who expect these films to somewhat unrealistically break "box office records", just because the first was so huge.

[RobinHood26]

1 minute ago, Chewy said:

475 for IW, 425 for this, 350-375 for Deadpool/Solo/Incredibles, 300+ for Panther, $1 over JL for Ant-Man

 

I agree with this`1000000% to be honest. We share the same thoughts on this summer. 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Yeah this film will be huge thanks to not other live action dinosaur film being released since Jurassic World. 

In fact I think 500 million is in the cards, with less emphasis on kids in the trailer plus Goldblum returning, and a ton more dinosaurs this time around!!

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Also.....CGI-star/Creature Feature-blockbusters can be very good movies if they deliver in quality. Like the new "Planet of the Apes"-trilogy and Peter Jackson's King Kong. They were well-praised by critics & audience alike.

[Lordmandeep]

Deadpool should do well but I see it pulling an Iron Man 2 which should be perfectly fine. 

 

 

I just think it will try too hard and not be novel. 

[Cmasterclay]

The case against Infinity War is harder and more dubious for me than the case against this, I'll admit. For Infinity War I'm thinking the Part One stuff, worst reviews of the MCU, AND too high a bar for entry for non-fans....and 390 is still the lowest possible I can see it going. If I didn't have an under 400 club that I want to stick to, I'm pretty sure I'd predicting 420+ for that. But this....I just don't see a hook. I said yesterday, but JW just had the perfect storm of nostalgia, empty market, amazing marketing, generational crossover, felt like a change of pace. But it wasn't loved enough for that to carry over if it didn't have all that going for it, and from what I've seen, this looks like a been-there, done-that sequel. JW was lightning in a bottle that's never getting close to being caught again. I just see a huge drop.

[grey ghost]

19 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

 

They expect it. Its planned for. they run numbers. They know. 

AOU dropped by 100 m WW. So dropping by 400 m isn't an inevitability.

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

The case against Infinity War is harder and more dubious for me than the case against this, I'll admit. For Infinity War I'm thinking the Part One stuff, worst reviews of the MCU, AND too high a bar for entry for non-fans....and 390 is still the lowest possible I can see it going. If I didn't have an under 400 club that I want to stick to, I'm pretty sure I'd predicting 420+ for that. But this....I just don't see a hook. I said yesterday, but JW just had the perfect storm of nostalgia, empty market, amazing marketing, generational crossover, felt like a change of pace. But it wasn't loved enough for that to carry over if it didn't have all that going for it, and from what I've seen, this looks like a been-there, done-that sequel. JW was lightning in a bottle that's never getting close to being caught again. I just see a huge drop.

 

I agree with you. All this has going for it is dinosaurs, which I can't see being enough to get it over 400M. 

 

Below 350 wouldn't shock me to be honest.

[Lordmandeep]

Why would Infinity Wars get the worst reviews of the MCU?

 

That is not based on anything then thinking it will be like Justice League and with the Russo's involved, I highly doubt it. 

[grey ghost]

This summer:

 

IW battles for 500 m.

 

JW2 and Incredibles 2 battle for 400 m.

 

Black Panther, Han Solo and Deadpool battle for 350 m.

 

And ass ton of movies slap box for 200 m.

[Cmasterclay]

Sleeper picks: I think there's a strong chance that if things break right either Mary Poppins Returns or Black Panther ends up the biggest movie of the year domestically. Probably have both doing under IW for sure, but beyond that, could easily see them being 2 and 3 tbh.

[Chewy]

One thing that seems certain to me is that March is a DISASTER, many bombs coming