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KingoftheWorld

Is physical media dying?

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I've pretty much stopped buying physical copies of movies. The last one I bought was RO and at this point the SW movies are probably the only ones I'll consider still purchasing on disc. 

 

Im good with waiting for them to hit Netflix, Amazon and VOD/On Demand. I would gladly pay a monthly fee for a movie only streaming service where you could get movies, say, a couple of months after they hit theaters. Doesn't mean I'd stop going to the theaters all together. There are always movies that are worth seeing on the big screen. 

 

I still buy my games on disc though. I like being able to trade them in and get credit that I can put towards other games. The only ones I download are the free monthly games on PSN

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It is still far from death.

 

http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/home-entertainment-2016-figures-streaming-eclipses-disc-sales-for-the-first-time-1201954154/

 

In 2016 if I understand the numbers correctly.

 

Total revenue from  sales and rentals of movies and TV shows totaled $12 billion in 2016

 

Digital without physical support:

EST (electronic sales truth, like selling not renting a movie on Itunes or Xbox video): 2 billion

VOD: 2 billion

 

With physical support:

disc sales: 5.49 billion

disc rental:2.47 billion

Physical total: 7.96 billion, not that far from the US box office at 11.37 (for canada+US), specially considering the usually much better margin.

 

Revenue from streaming different service like Netflix: 6.2 billion (first time streaming goes above disc sales, but not yet disk sales + disk rental)

 

Important to note that those does not include amazon prime figure (I imagine because customer pay for more than streaming in is subscription) and Prime has like 60 million customer.

Edited by Barnack
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I buy mostly digital these days (iTunes, Steam, Blu Rays with digital download codes), but console games are still something I buy in physical format due to large file size and the paltry amount of HDD space the consoles come with, the Switch being the biggest offender.

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On 7/17/2017 at 2:13 PM, Barnack said:

With physical support:

disc sales: 5.49 billion

disc rental:2.47 billion

Physical total: 7.96 billion, not that far from the US box office at 11.37 (for canada+US), specially considering the usually much better margin.

 

Revenue from streaming different service like Netflix: 6.2 billion (first time streaming goes above disc sales, but not yet disk sales + disk rental)

Update from those 2016 figures in 2017 (to give an idea of the rate of dying):

 

Physicals Disc sales: 5.490b->4.716b

Physicals rentals : 2.550b->2.117b

 

8.04b down to 6.883b (huge 15% drop, could go at only 5b in only 2 year's at that rate, was above 20b in 2006, at the peak of the bubble the average american family was buying 14.4 dvd a year !)

 

Physical is for the first year smaller than SVOD (estimated to 9.55b last year), still surprising will all the talk about it that it was still smaller than the disk industry in 2016, that can give a bit of an idea than the bloggers/active online person are not the average customers.

Edited by Barnack
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I don't think physical media for movies/TVs will die anytime soon.  What I DO think, and have been thinking for a while, is that it might go back to the more niche days of Laserdiscs though. 

 

Might mean a bit more of a limited availability for some titles, though.  But when it comes right down to it, it's still dirt cheap to make Blu-Rays and DVDs.  Biggest factor might be storage space which is more of a problem for Brick and Mortar stores than outfits like Amazon and the like.

 

So what I could see is them all but disappearing at places like Best Buy.  In fact, as relatively bullish as I am on physical media I'm kiiiiiiiiinda surprised to see them still at Best Buy and Frys.  Though given the way the shelf space is being shrunk at Frys, I won't be surprised one jot to see them gone at Frys within two years.

 

But that's less of a factor, if one at all, for internet warehouses. 

 

Back in the day, if one wanted a Laserdisc and one didn't have a Tower Records or something similar nearby, one of the main sources of them was a mail catalogue.  Well, we already have the world's largest mail catalogue called the internet.  So I figure as long as enough people are buying them, they'll still be made.  Even if the price point creeps up.

 

(Case in point:  CDs and books are still sold quite a bit over at Amazon, and they're both far further along the streaming/digital path than movies/TV are.  From what I can see, at least)

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16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

(Case in point:  CDs and books are still sold quite a bit over at Amazon, and they're both far further along the streaming/digital path than movies/TV are.  From what I can see, at least)

Book is a very misleading example to use, the experience of reading a traditional book versus a reading tablet, is way different than physical media vs non-physical for movies, those are one data-band evolution away to be literally the exacts same bits displayed on your TV and played in the sound system the exact same way.

 

One other possibility is being one hard drive away evolution to change the conversation quite a bit, something like this:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/memory-nanotechnology-edmonton-university-alberta-1.4761445

 

Very small harddrive holding up 400 TB (or big one with 5000tb) or something of the sort, could change the landscape, you could physically own all your movie without taking space, being easy to share them with your family/friend or bring them to play while traveling, in the car, at a remote chalet, etc...  by downloading all of them.

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I think the data shows that physical media is going niche. The general public dont care about that extra bit of image quality, and most dont even have the TV to see it anyway, or know what to look for.

 

DVD is the most pointless thing ever now, since its got awful image quality on a modern 4k TV. Blu-ray is too expensive when its all just on streaming services a month or so later in a quality most find the same (even if it isnt), and Ultra Blu-ray is far too expensive to make any impression on over all sales.

 

Ive got all the high end gear but I only have 6 U-BR movies/shows and 2 of those are BBC nature docs, the quality is great, but at £26+ a movie at release, is it really worth it? Not really, it only seems worth it if the movie is a good example of HDR, 4k itself isnt enough of a draw.

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I have bought over 300 Blu-Rays in the last 4 years. Granted, ive got a home cinema, so if i hadnt had that, i dont think i would have spent that much on the films. Im just a massive collector and i dont like streaming at all. And as long as they are enough crazy people like me, physical media aint dying completely. 

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9 hours ago, GirafficPark said:

I think the data shows that physical media is going niche.

 

Liongates track is annual HE sales in packaged vs digital, can give a clue of the trajectory and speed for which it is getting nicher.

 

 

http://investors.lionsgate.com/~/media/Files/L/LionsGate-IR/annual-reports/2018-annual-report.pdf

 

Packaged vs Digital

 

2010: $523.5m vs $67.9m

2011: $513.3m vs $122.3m

 

2013: $671.9m vs $228.1m

2014: $590.4m vs $239.2m

 

2017: $403.8m vs $303.9m

2018: $400.3m vs $373.7m

 

Maybe the last year packaged was bigger than digital, digital here do not include SVOD, they are pay-per-view/VOD, EST (like a sales on itunes) and rental on amazon/itunes/etc...

 

For example home entertainment is up early 2018 versus early 2017 by an impressive 9%, despite that physical sales are down 10%

 

The 4K ultra you are talking about are becoming high also, at 12%, higher that number more niche/high end physical become yes.

 

If we look at 2012-2013 vs 2016-2017 to give an idea of the 5 year's decline, not even adjusted for inflation it look like:

 

  Sales Rental Total
2012 8,462.18 4,411.89 12,874.07
2013 7,779.19 3,978.76 11,757.95
Average 8,120.69 4,195.33 12,316.01
       
2016 5,490.57 2,550.49 8,041.06
2017 4,716.37 2,117.10 6,833.47
Average 5,103.47 2,333.80 7,437.27

 

2017 physical revenues were 53% of 2012.

 

That said we are still talking about a 6 billion in the United state business here, that still has big has Netflix ! And dvd grosses sales is still higher than the part of the tickets sales that do not go in the theater pocket (around 50% of an 10.5b BO).

 

It is maybe dying but it is far from death, for all the talk about Netflix and all the talk about dvds being death, Netflix has yet to make more revenues in the US than those, should happen in 2018 or 2019 too.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Barnack
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I did say 'going'.

 

Of course its holding out in countries/areas with shitty internet, but its dropping pretty fast and is going niche. I have little doubt that it will keep going that way until its eventually an enthusiast only market, at which point only artzy and larger movies get released at all.

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4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

People underestimate how good Blus are as gifts. Movies still sell out extremely fast on Black Friday, and it certainly isn't just enthusiasts buying them. 

Thats true, they are, but ive got a few that way, and haven't watched them more than once. Too inconvenient, especially if they have menus/ads you cant skip.

 

Dont get me wrong, the market isnt dead yet, its just on a one way trajectory, thats not up. Eventually, probably within 5 years, some titles wont even make it to physical media.

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8 minutes ago, GirafficPark said:

Too inconvenient, especially if they have menus/ads you cant skip.

They should have made the product betters (too later), removing FBI warning, anything that is not skipable, better player and experience (all is very slow most of the time).

 

Finding Nemo is the best selling ever and I think they made it without anything, an easy movie start right away.

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