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K1stpierre

Finding Dory #1 DOM Movie of 2016 DOM total $482M, the odds are looking good in our favor! Shout out to Mahnamahna for being the closest w/o being over!

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Out. $400M and I think something will outgross that (not sure what, but something.) I'd love to be wrong but I keep feeling like being about Dory is going to give it a spin-off feel that may hurt it.

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Yeah, I think BvS is gonna win this.

Wrooooooong!

This suddenly looks a lot less crazy.

It's def nt crazy. Look at IO now, an original movie that is going to do at least 75M just in OW. Finding Dory is just going to smash everything.

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There will be a very very close fight between this, Civil War and BvS with rogue one also grossing more than 350 and coming right behind these 3 (unless SW7 is massively loved in which case it will also join in the fight). Truth is love for The Dark Knight series and superman and a fight between them all combined is definitely greater than the love for Finding Nemo alone even though it is super loved too. As for Civil War, It has got a lot of heroes, is based on a super hit arc, has got Cap and Iron Man (MCU's most popular characters right now) against each other and the inclusion of Spiderman! Om the other hand while hype and love for previous parts etc may lead to a huge OW, the legs will depend on the quality of that very film. While all 3 are going to be good I think that if Pixar has really worked hard on it, Finding Dory will turn out to be absolutely excellent and the best loved of the 3. Then possibly Civil War coz of Marvel and then BvS coz of no Nolan and the shitty DC movies guys.

In the end I see all of them grossing around Toy Story 3 with each having the potential to crossing Shrek 2 too. Each should easily cross 350m though.

So i can't really decide right now. But its gonna be really difficult for any movie to grab 2016's dom crown...

Edited by Infernus
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Superhero movies are just so iffy. Granted it bat vs sup but it still isn't guaranteed to win if the film isn't up to par, look at AOU, it's struggling to get past 450 een with an OW of 190M. Why? Because people it seems generally didn't like it. I cant see dory getting a multiplier less than 3.5, whereas batsup i could see only doing 2.5ish.

So even if bat vs sup breaks out to 160M, it would finish really only around just at 400. Best case to me really).

Finding dory I think is going to more than likely be around 110-120OW, but the legs are going to be insane. I see it doing a 4X, if not more. Minimum that's 402, but could go as high as 550 if legs are insane like the first one.

Finding Dory, also is going to appeal to a larger audience than bat vs sup, it's going to be more like a 4 quadrant movie whereas bat vs sup is really only targeting the fans and young adult audience.

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I don't see why Dory's legs should be much better than TS3's (3.75-3.8) even if it's as good. Even the most acclaimed/beloved summer animated movies almost always end up under 4x, and Dory will be more frontloaded than most. 

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Yeah in the end if this turns out to be really good (lets say >95% in an ideal, utopial, imaginative RT that everyone agreea too) and both Civil War and BvS turn out uninteresting or just passable (75% for CW and 45% for BvS in the same RT) than its gonna easily win because of holding power and 4 quadrant appeal. On the other hand if it doesn't turn out to be excellent then even if its still slightly better than the other two it won't be able to outgross them and may also end up being a little frontloaded. So all comes down to quality for all 3 films, though it would matter most in Finding Dory's case. Otherwise, completely logically and non-biasedly speaking, they all have almost equal chance of coming out on top. They will remain close no matter which comes out on top though unless one of them really breaks out big (and for this too all have equal chances).

Edited by Infernus

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I don't see why Dory's legs should be much better than TS3's (3.75-3.8) even if it's as good. Even the most acclaimed/beloved summer animated movies almost always end up under 4x, and Dory will be more frontloaded than most.

150 OW

500-520 DOM

3.33x-3.46x multi

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Finding Dory is actually simply held back because though its appealing to all 4 quadrants, in 3 of those quadrants people are still not completely open to animations and would consider it a kid's movie that they'll simply catch later on TV.

Edited by Infernus

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Finding Dory is actually simply held back because though its appealing to all 4 quadrants in 3 of those quadrants people are still not completely open to animations and would consider it a kid's movie they'll simply catch later on TV.

I disagree, Finding Dory is an event film that those who loved the original will make there way out to the theater for. Kids my age (16) still adore the first movie because it was something that was big in are childhood.

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I disagree, Finding Dory is an event film that those who loved the original will make there way out to the theater for. Kids my age (16) still adore the first movie because it was something that was big in are childhood.

Yeah I know. But that limits that to teens like us. What about people above 30? I don't want it to, but it will put it a disadvantage compared to the other 2. On the other hand Finding Nemo's got the record for the highest selling DVDs so that may have increased a lot of fans, even among the adults. Anyways because of this disadvantage, even if it falls short by 10 or 20m from the top, that would still be a bigger feat than that of the one on top.

Edited by Infernus

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Yeah I know. But that limits that to teens like us. What about people above 30? I don't want it to, but it will put it a disadvantage compared to the other 2. On the other hand Finding Nemo's got the record for the highest selling DVDs so that may have increased a lot of fans, even among the adults. Anyways because of this disadvantage, even if it falls short by 10 or 20m from the top, that would still be a bigger feat than that of the one on top.

Well the same can be said of bat vs sup, it really doesn't appeal to the female audience or many older adults. You'll get the people over 30 mostly from families and such, plus I do know people my age at least (24) who loved the original and when I brought up dory they were excited to see it.

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Well the same can be said of bat vs sup, it really doesn't appeal to the female audience or many older adults. You'll get the people over 30 mostly from families and such, plus I do know people my age at least (24) who loved the original and when I brought up dory they were excited to see it.

Yeah but i still think this will be affected more. Anyways even if it is, it will surely compensate by being a much better movie. So, as I said, all 3 have equal chances.

Edited by Infernus

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