Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

[MovieMan89]

I was following AVTR diligently - and JW since last summer - and none of this matches up with my observations.

 

AVTR was one of the most hyped non-CB movies of all time, easily, and all estimates had it breaking the December record, which it missed by only a fraction. 

 

Maybe you remember random internet comments on Twitter or message boards.  That's not what I reference.

All estimates had no freakin clue what to do with Avatar. Predictions were literally all over the damn place leading up to release, both by experts and box office fans like us. It would have broken the December OW though if not for that massive blizzard on the east coast that weekend.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

But that's what I mean, the Internet was vicious with Avatar and I remember a lot of predictions at the Box Office Mojo forums that it would flop. Cameron blew them out of the water. When JP4 was announced it seems like there was a lot of negative reaction to the very idea of another JP movie. Glad the movie itself turned out to be a legitimately great sequel to the original.

I think some people on Mojo said it was going to flop just to pisss Kal off. It was hyped on IMDB. 

[KATCH-2D2]

Yeah, I saw Whiplash in theaters. Probably my 2nd favorite of 2014. That Best Editing win <33333

 

There're so very few critical acclaimed movies that I truly enjoyed watching and Whiplash was one of those few. What a powerful film.

[cory]

No one thought Avatar would do under 250.

[Bonenash]

lol JW could hit 404m in 10 days TEN fucking days and TA 14 was crazy lol.... can it stop?

 

 

prediction for monday?

[redfirebird2008]

I assume this was for a 10:30ish show on the West Coast:

 

DAMN second week of opening and this is the line for Jurassic World pic.twitter.com/CvsL3PVxJG

— Steven Clayton (@piplupfan77)

June 21, 2015

[The Futurist]

Records, records everywhere !!!

[Ozymandias]

prediction for monday?

 

TA's 2nd monday is 7.9, so probably 10-11m imo.

[MovieMan89]

lol JW could hit 404m in 10 days TEN fucking days and TA 14 was crazy lol.... can it stop?

 

 

prediction for monday?

Could hit 500 in 18 at this rate, which is the time it took TDK to 400. And we were all blown away by that at the time.

[redfirebird2008]

lol JW could hit 404m in 10 days TEN fucking days and TA 14 was crazy lol.... can it stop?

 

 

prediction for monday?

 

Monday should drop pretty hard, especially if it does something crazy on Sunday like sub-5% drop.

[eddyxx]

As a Avengers fan, I have to say that if JW does 100M+ in its 2nd weekend then it is far more impressive than TA's feat. Going up against a 90M opener and still getting 100M in your 2nd weekend vs Dark Shadows' 29M? No question, JW is a monstrous beast.

[DavidBrennan]

All estimates had no freakin clue what to do with Avatar. Predictions were literally all over the damn place leading up to release, both by experts and box office fans like us. It would have broken the December OW though if not for that massive blizzard on the east coast that weekend.

 

False.  Yesterday I linked to a bevy of AVTR predictions a week out and the floor was 60m and many were calling for it to surpass 80m.  Variations of the phrase "massive amounts of hype" appeared in virtually every forecast.

 

It was well known that it was the most downloaded trailer of all time (this was at a time when Apple dominated the trailer market).  Anybody who thought it was going to be less than a stellar pre-Christmas opening was an igoramous on a message board with zero credibility.

[#ED]

Not sure if Sunday guarantees a 10% drop but that would be the best case scenario IMO.

[redfirebird2008]

As a Avengers fan, I have to say that if JW does 100M+ in its 2nd weekend then it is far more impressive than TA's feat. Going up against a 90M opener and still getting 100M in your 2nd weekend vs Dark Shadows' 29M? No question, JW is a monstrous beast.

 

And after burning $25m more in demand during the week. I think this might be the most impressive weekend we've ever seen arguably in both directions too between JP4 and Inside Out. Both doing incredibly well against the odds.

[Dark 33Legend of the Sith]

Avatar had plenty of hype, but I can remember how polarizing it was on mojo leading up to the release. There were some big predicts but also many below $200 mill predicts. Based on what I remember a middle of the road prediction was around $250. It obviously blew everyone but Kal out of the water.

[La Binoche]

So Jurassic World could be a contender for the all-time crown? What is it about good but not great (and ultimately kind of forgettable) movies that the general public goes crazy for? 

 

One decent movie (JW) replacing another decent movie (Avatar). 

[cory]

TA's 2nd monday is 7.9, so probably 10-11m imo.

Should be more like 12-14m based on MoS. 

[redfirebird2008]

So Jurassic World could be a contender for the all-time crown? What is it about good but not great (and ultimately kind of forgettable) movies that the general public goes crazy for? 

 

One decent movie (JW) replacing another decent movie (Avatar). 

 

Both of them do have awesome third acts that 100% deliver the goods on action spectacle. You get your money's worth in that regard. Strong ending is crucial to great WOM.

[DavidBrennan]

Avatar had plenty of hype, but I can remember how polarizing it was on mojo leading up to the release. There were some big predicts but also many below $200 mill predicts. Based on what I remember a middle of the road prediction was around $250. It obviously blew everyone but Kal out of the water.

 

Anybody who was that modest didn't pay attention to the hype surrounding it.  Other than TDKR (which was quickly silenced by the Colorado shooting), there's been no movie in the past decade that had as much mainstream press coverage - some critical, but mostly fawning puff pieces - as AVTR. 

 

Most notably, how ingeniously Cameron was able to get the movie to play along with his bogus claim that the 3D (which had already been around for years) would make watching movies so superior.  This was a lie, and Cameron knew it (there had been numerous audience tests of the 3D effect, and all confirmed it was statistically insignificant on audience enjoyment), but the media was too enamored with this powerful director to say, "Sounds good.  Prove it."  Instead, they just told everybody that AVTR was revolutionary, and so people drove hours from the country to see AVTR in IMAX.  They forgot about it the next day, but the 3D mystique was utterly brilliant marketing by Cameron, especially, and all of Fox.

[MovieMan89]

As a Avengers fan, I have to say that if JW does 100M+ in its 2nd weekend then it is far more impressive than TA's feat. Going up against a 90M opener and still getting 100M in your 2nd weekend vs Dark Shadows' 29M? No question, JW is a monstrous beast.

Very true, although TA's OW is still more impressive to me. I mean besides it obviously selling more tickets than JW's OW,  I had no idea it was at all possible for a movie to hit 200 on OW at the time. It utterly floored everything I had come to expect about BO. It just shattered the OW by such a big amount. And there really was no indicator for it either given the history of MCU OWs prior. Even the JP franchise had a precedent for historic OWs before JW. MCU had impressive starts for IM and IM2, but nothing record breaking or close to it.