Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

[Ozymandias]

So Jurassic World could be a contender for the all-time crown? What is it about good but not great (and ultimately kind of forgettable) movies that the general public goes crazy for? 

 

One decent movie (JW) replacing another decent movie (Avatar). 

 

Titanic and TA domestic going down are very real possibilities, I think Avatar is safe(for now).

[Killimano3]

So Jurassic World could be a contender for the all-time crown? What is it about good but not great (and ultimately kind of forgettable) movies that the general public goes crazy for? 

 

One decent movie (JW) replacing another decent movie (Avatar). 

 

It's not about whether it's "good" or "great" it's about how wide the appeal is. JW happens to be something that can appeal to almost every type of person

[Tau Ceti]

So Jurassic World could be a contender for the all-time crown? What is it about good but not great (and ultimately kind of forgettable) movies that the general public goes crazy for? 

 

One decent movie (JW) replacing another decent movie (Avatar). 

 

Google "funniest joke ever." It'll be good but not great. That's how mass appeal works.

[superduperm]

lol JW could hit 404m in 10 days TEN fucking days and TA 14 was crazy lol.... can it stop?

 

 

prediction for monday?

TDK earned $10.5M its second Monday so $11M is a good target. Anything above $10M is great, though.

[The Futurist]

Anybody who was that modest didn't pay attention to the hype surrounding it.  Other than TDKR (which was quickly silenced by the Colorado shooting), there's been no movie in the past decade that had as much mainstream press coverage - some critical, but mostly fawning puff pieces - as AVTR. 

 

Most notably, how ingeniously Cameron was able to get the movie to play along with his bogus claim that the 3D (which had already been around for years) would make watching movies so superior.  This was a lie, and Cameron knew it (there had been numerous audience tests of the 3D effect, and all confirmed it was statistically insignificant on audience enjoyment), but the media was too enamored with this powerful director to say, "Sounds good.  Prove it."  Instead, they just told everybody that AVTR was revolutionary, and so people drove hours from the country to see AVTR in IMAX.  They forgot about it the next day, but the 3D mystique was utterly brilliant marketing by Cameron, especially, and all of Fox.

 

[La Binoche]

Google "funniest joke ever." It'll be good but not great. That's how mass appeal works.

 

[DavidBrennan]

Titanic and TA domestic going down are very real possibilities, I think Avatar is safe(for now).

 

I think Ted2 is going to disappoint (people are burnt out on both gay marriage activism and the lazy snark of MacFarlane's).  I think T5 looks kind of wonky and will be a big disappointment unless it's very, very good.

 

It's not likely, of course, but I really believe it's becoming a more real possibility.

[redfirebird2008]

Very true, although TA's OW is still more impressive to me. I mean besides it obviously selling more tickets than JW's OW,  I had no idea it was at all possible for a movie to hit 200 on OW at the time. It utterly floored everything I had come to expect about BO. It just shattered the OW by such a big amount. And there really was no indicator for it either given the history of MCU OWs prior. Even the JP franchise had a precedent for historic OWs before JW. MCU had impressive starts for IM and IM2, but nothing record breaking or close to it.

 

TA1 opening was a jaw dropper for sure, but at least it had fans predicting 170's and tracking in the 150-160 area. Highest fan prediction on JP4 was around 140 I think and tracking was in the 110-120 area.

[Dementeleus]

..........

[La Binoche]

Ted 2 looks like shit, and I was a fan of the first one. 

[DavidBrennan]

TA1 opening was a jaw dropper for sure, but at least it had fans predicting 170's and tracking in the 150-160 area. Highest fan prediction on JP4 was around 140 I think and tracking was in the 110-120 area.

 

This is accurate.

 

I was bearish on TA (apologies to BKB) and bullish on JW....and I still think that JW's performance is the bigger shocker. 

[Tau Ceti]

 

Alright, I laughed! Great or merely good?

[superduperm]

..........

So... What did you think?

[MovieMan89]

TA1 opening was a jaw dropper for sure, but at least it had fans predicting 170's and tracking in the 150-160 area. Highest fan prediction on JP4 was around 140 I think and tracking was in the 110-120 area.

My final OW predict was 147m, and I don't consider myself a JP loonie or anything. Tracking was indicating 140's last I know of. Most people around here just chose to ignore it and say it was way off. Which shocks me, because there had been big neon signs pointing to an OW on F7's level for months. Now obviously I had no idea it could break the record, but predictions should have been in the 140-160 range for it if people were paying attention. For some reason people here just got it stuck in their head that 100-ish was as high as it could go.

Edited June 21, 2015 by MovieMan89

[redfirebird2008]

Ted 2 looks like shit, and I was a fan of the first one. 

 

I took a long time to see that one. Caught it on a movie channel about 6 months ago. It had some pretty good parts but overall it felt too long for a comedy.

[PDC1987]

Tracking was indicating 140's last I know of. Most people around here just chose to ignore it and say it was way off. Which shocks me, because there had been big neon signs pointing to an OW on F7's level for months. Now obviously I had no idea it could break the record, but predictions should have been in the 140-160 range for it if people were paying attention.

I called $155 but I was still way off.

[La Binoche]

What's this Summer's indie breakout gonna be?

[Dementeleus]

So... What did you think?

I thought it was mostly terrible, in almost every way.

[DavidBrennan]

I took a long time to see that one. Caught it on a movie channel about 6 months ago. It had some pretty good parts but overall it felt too long for a comedy.

 

The whole "sloppy middle aged men dressed like teenagers, guzzling beer, and making pop culture references" genre of comedy feels tired.  It was a touch weird seeing 40-something Whalberg in then, now it's three years later and early previews indicate this doubles down.  It's just not going to work, I don't think. 

[cory]

What's this Summer's indie breakout gonna be?

You'd think it was Age of Ultron