redfirebird2008 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 I'm wondering about Jurassic World's drop. We went from 2 2D and 1 3D down to just a 2D/3D split. I don't know how other theaters were doing, but we still were selling plenty of tickets all weekend for JW. Maybe I'm jumping to conclusions, but did Universal sacrifice some of JW's screens for more Minions? Maybe so, but that also means they can fudge more of the gross from Minions to JP4. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 If it gets 20m weekdays + 18m weekend, it's total will be 284m. If it makes 3.5x the weekend in the rest of the run, it will get 284 + 3.5*18 = 347m. With 20m weekdays + 19m weekend 285 + 3.5*19 = 351.5m. Should cross 350m imo. With how little family competition this summer has beyond Minions/Pixels, I'd say $350 million is already locked. IO has less competition than TS3 or MU had in their late runs (Last Airbender/DM1/Sorcerer's Apprentice/Cats & Dogs 2 for TS3, DM2/Turbo/Smurfs 2/Planes for MU). All Inside Out has until Sep 25 in terms of direct PG-rated competition is Shaun the Sheep/Underdogs. Both will be lucky to combine to $50 million DOM+ IMO so 3.6x-4.2x should happen from this weekend. Especially with Ant-Man double features coming up, and zero competition the weekend after Pixels. Not to mention the last 3 weeks of the summer BO are empty. One thing to keep in mind is the further we move into summer, the stronger the weekdays will be relative to the weekends. $20m weekend for IO would require a sub-33% drop against a massive animated opener. Even though last weekend was deflated, I don't think it was deflated enough to guarantee that kind of number for this coming weekend. I'm expecting around $18m for the weekend (39.5% drop, still great). I think Minions sellouts and the box office being relatively dead beyond IO/JW should help both. Minions, IO and JW should combine for $150 million+, but the rest of the BO will only do $40-50 million, at best. There's room for July to explode if GAs want to see this month's offerings. $18-21 million is the range. Anything more than $18 million is a victory for IO, though. If a2k's 4.6m Thursday comes true-- Friday: 4.7m (+2%) Saturday: 6m (+27%) Sunday: 4.6m (-23%) 15.3 (-48.6%), 281m total That seems plenty conservative to me. Toy Story 3 went up 26% on Fri against DM1. It would need a 4.66x from there to reach Nemo but again TS3 did better. I doubt the weekend would make that much less than the weekdays, even with Minions this weekend. And that 2% Friday increase would be horrible - 20 to 25% is much more likely. You really just presented a worst-case scenario from $20.2 million weekdays. $18 million is the lowest I see IO going this weekend, since it'll either be just under its weekdays, equal them or be just over. So $18-21 million is the range for this weekend IMO. $14-16 million would be horrendous considering how IO has proven to be a weekend film, also. Not to mention its weekdays shouldn't be that much bigger than its weekend, even during summer. $4.5 million Thurs $5.7 million Fri $7.3 million Sat $5.9 million Sun $18.9 million 4th weekend (36% drop) Considering how deflated last weekend was, and the fact that other than Minions, the BO is relatively dead other than JW. Magic Mike, Ted and Terminator are all doing mediocre - so I really think there's more than enough room for Minions, JW and IO to combine for $160-180 million, while the rest of the top 10 completely tanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Wang Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Maybe so, but that also means they can fudge more of the gross from Minions to JP4. This is true! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 38-40% inside out seems likely. You can't have another movie coming into the marketplace and feeling a hundred and twenty million dollars with the business and have inside and not be affected. You also have to consider how dead the rest of the BO is. Terminator's set for $10-12 million. Ted 2/Magic Mike both looking at $5-7 million. Max/Spy looking at $3.5-4 million. Gallows and Self/Less looking to open sub-$10 million. Even with Minions doing $125 million, and IO/JW each doing $20 million, the entire BO should be $205-210 million at the highest. JW's OW had $260 million in business, so $205-215 million is reasonable for a behemoth like Minions. After a mediocre July 4th frame, I'd say there's definitely room for Minions sellouts to give JW/IO a slight boost even in the face of major competition. But I do agree that 38-42% is the likely range. 32-34% is possible, but that might require Minions underperforming slightly ($95-105 mlilion OW instead of $120-130 million OW) to be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 IO has 24.3% and 26.5% increase from Monday to Tuesday in last 2 weeks, Wednesdays drop is 28.1% then 14.7%. I'm just following the trend, I'm expecting it'll hold better this week than last week. 26.3% Mon-Tues increase and 6.4% Wed drop are not that far from last week. I might be too optimistic but it's not impossible. Btw, IO doesn't perform like any Pixar's movies in the past. 6.$% drop is way off from last week. That's abotu an 8% difference. That's significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Both JW and IO will have 35-40% drops next weekend. Last weekend was deflated due to 4th of July being a Saturday. Even TG can have a drop under 50%, IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 I think you guys are really under estimating Terminator. WOM is far from terrible and it's coming off a deflated weekend. A 45% drop seems likely imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Baumer, what were thinking for JP4? 30% or lower? Honestly the more I think about it the more reasonable that sounds, especially with the guaranteed fudge from Universal (look at PP2 & F7 during JP4's opening). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Even sans much new competition aimed at Terminator demo and a pretty soft OW, I'm expecting a 55% drop for Terminator. Monday number's pretty "meh" in that it's not unlike Lone Ranger's first Monday. Lone Ranger had burned off more demand and was not sideswiped by a WWC title match either. Unless it corrects itself, I'm thinking $90M DOM for Genysis is the number that it reaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 (edited) I think you guys are really under estimating Terminator. WOM is far from terrible and it's coming off a deflated weekend. A 45% drop seems likely imo. The Monday number leads me to believe one or both of two things. People don't really care for and/or people don't really care to see it. It's Monday take is almost identical to Lone Ranger. Expecting a second weekend around $12.5M. Edited July 7, 2015 by JohnnyGossamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Terminator is pretty much tracking dead on with Public Enemies. If that continues, a 45% drop is very doable. Of course Public Enemies' second weekend did not feature a potential $140m opening monster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Even sans much new competition aimed at Terminator demo and a pretty soft OW, I'm expecting a 55% drop for Terminator. Monday number's pretty "meh" in that it's not unlike Lone Ranger's first Monday. Lone Ranger had burned off more demand and was not sideswiped by a WWC title match either. Unless it corrects itself, I'm thinking $90M DOM for Genysis is the number that it reaches. That's actually a solid finish. Ant-Man, Pixels, MI5 and F4 pretty much guarantee it won't have a chance to develop late legs, so $90-95 million DOM is really the best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Baumer, what were thinking for JP4? 30% or lower? Honestly the more I think about it the more reasonable that sounds, especially with the guaranteed fudge from Universal (look at PP2 & F7 during JP4's opening). Without doing any weekday extrapolations, because frankly, weekday numbers don't seem to indicate anything one way or the other for JW on the weekend, my guess is -35% because Minions will affect it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 The Monday number leads me to believe one or both of two things. People don't really care for and/or people don't really care to see it. It's Monday take is almost identical to Lone Ranger. Regardless of the Monday number, my point is it is not going to drop 60% this weekend. It's going under 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 That's actually a solid finish. Ant-Man, Pixels, MI5 and F4 pretty much guarantee it won't have a chance to develop late legs, so $90-95 million DOM is really the best case scenario. Which, even without taking inflation into account, is yet another drop from a Terminator sequel that many believe didn't perform well in the first place. That's a 25% drop in revenue from Salvation. Adjusting for inflation, it's a 30% drop in admissions. I'm using the $95M for Genysis too. The higher end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 It's a bad domestic number no doubt. I think surpassing the Arnoldless Salvation should have been achievable. But it won't and that is a shame, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Regardless of the Monday number, my point is it is not going to drop 60% this weekend. It's going under 50%. You could very well be right. I personally see a 50% drop minimum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladels Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Maybe or maybe it is just doing very well on the weekdays as it has for the entire run. Still weird that it's increasing. IO's 11.7% a head of JW now, the gap has never been this big ( except maybe for IO's first day ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Terrific Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 The hook for the next Terminator movie would be... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Still weird that it's increasing. IO's 11.7% a head of JW now, the gap has never been this big ( except maybe for IO's first day ). IO will increase more on Discount Tuesday. That's how it has been the whole time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
