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Solo: A Star Wars Story | May 25, 2018 | Bombs in spectacular fashion

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Me every time I hear someone say there is "too much SW right now"/"SW is just another franchise":

 

6q6xMJw.gif

 

The only thing I care about is quality.  I'll let Disney give the fucks about the bottom line/box office expectations. :)

 

 

Edited by Porthos
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31 minutes ago, The Last AndyLL said:

TLJ dropped 35.69% (WW)

AotC dropped 36.77%

 

So yes it should have been expected. 

You shouldn't use TPM WW total including the 3D re-release for that comparison.  You still get 30%, but at least it's apples to apples. 

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14 minutes ago, langer said:

You shouldn't use TPM WW total including the 3D re-release for that comparison.  You still get 30%, but at least it's apples to apples. 

Also it is using what is vastly considered the worst Star Wars movie in that comparison (and one could say Awaken created more enthusiast than Phantom Menace but I could be rewriting history here, Phantom Menace legs were phenomenal), the only one not too finish number 1 domestic and so on.

 

That was a good example of what was certainly possible, not necessarily what was to be expected.

Edited by Barnack
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24 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Also it is using what is vastly considered the worst Star Wars movie in that comparison (and one could say Awaken created more enthusiast than Phantom Menace but I could be rewriting history here, Phantom Menace legs were phenomenal), the only one not too finish number 1 domestic and so on.

 

That was a good example of what was certainly possible, not necessarily what was to be expected.

Right? How exactly is saying the same drop of the worst SW film that followed the second worst SW film a good thing? 

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1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Right? How exactly is saying the same drop of the worst SW film that followed the second worst SW film a good thing? 

A bit like using Star Wars to Empire release to predict the %, those 456 and 123 pattern were good clue to expect the 7 to be the biggest of the trilogy, 8 to be the lowest, but not necessarily the percentage to expect between them imo.

 

Empire was in a really different era without democratized home video with sequel almost always dropping by a lot and Clones was the worst.

Edited by Barnack

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1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Right? How exactly is saying the same drop of the worst SW film that followed the second worst SW film a good thing? 

How about the drop to what many consider the greatest SW film.

 

DOM 1st run

 

SW => ESB = 32% 

TFA => TLJ = 30%

 

An unknown property followed by the best SW film in the theaters for 5-6 months with no streaming

 

compared to

 

The most anticipated/hyped/inflated SW movie that was followed by a (internet facts follow) decisive, childhood killing most despised SW film.

 

 

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7 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

But was a $700 million drop really expected?

Yes. Yes it was. At least if you paid attention to trends instead of expectations.

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Disney I don't think would be too disappointed in TLJ's performance except how it did in Asia. 

Edited by Darth Lehnsherr

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Lol at most of you guys.  Disney is ecstatic with Star Wars and they literally are already playing with house money.  The recovered their $4b investment months ago and Star Wars is going to fuel them for decades with billions and billions of dollars.  

Edited by EmpireCity
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I wouldn't call Last Jedi a financial disappointment by any means (making over 5x your budget is hard to quantify as a disappointment) but it probably fell a bit below what was hoped for like AOU. General audiences seemed fine with it but fan reception was mixed-to-bad. If Disney was that upset by it I doubt Rian Johnson would still have his trilogy.

Edited by Mekanos

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Anyone who thinks Disney "expected" TLJ to miss 650 is kidding themselves. Execs were ecstatic about it from test screenings and gave RJ his own trilogy before the movie even released. That wasn't because they expected it to fall off 300m+ DOM and 700+ WW. I'd bet money they thought it would do in the 750-800 range DOM and well over $1.5b WW. And as for this forum, lmfao at any revisionist history that even attempts to say the expectations weren't around those ranges as well. 

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How much Sony expected Spectre from Skyfall can give some cue on what a sequel of a perceived peak can do.

 

Marketing target was of 200dbo, 569m intl for 769 million WW from a 300m dbo, 1106m WW, a 70% retention rate with a 3 year's gap in a growing market. (Spectre ended up doing 200m dbo, 880m WW)

 

Last Jedi was not too far but below that with a 65% retention rate.

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Hopefully this can be at least be a B quality movie since this summer is lacking good looking blockbuster

Edited by Dexter of Suburbia
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3 hours ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

Hopefully this can be at least be a B quality movie since this summer is lacking good looking blockbuster

Mission Impossible should be good. Ocean's 8 might be good?

Jurassic World? 

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10 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Lol at most of you guys.  Disney is ecstatic with Star Wars and they literally are already playing with house money.  The recovered their $4b investment months ago and Star Wars is going to fuel them for decades with billions and billions of dollars.  

The issue is I have spent 200 bucks each for TFA,RO and TLJ and I am not going to do that for any future SW Film now. 

 

TLJ likely will lead to 100s of millions of lost future cash flows unless Episode 9 is pleasing to the fanbase. 

 

I think almost everyone has downgraded their Solo box office expectations due to the reaction of TLJ, so TLJ has had a cashflow impact. 

 

I am a huge SW fan, and I will likely skip Solo unless the AUDIENCE reaction to is like Rogue One. 

Edited by Lordmandeep

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11 hours ago, RandomYojimbo said:

Yes. Yes it was. At least if you paid attention to trends instead of expectations.

 

 

I would say a 500-600 drop was expected, the reaction likely made the legs far worse then expected. 

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8 hours ago, Barnack said:

How much Sony expected Spectre from Skyfall can give some cue on what a sequel of a perceived peak can do.

 

Marketing target was of 200dbo, 569m intl for 769 million WW from a 300m dbo, 1106m WW, a 70% retention rate with a 3 year's gap in a growing market. (Spectre ended up doing 200m dbo, 880m WW)

 

Last Jedi was not too far but below that with a 65% retention rate.

Spectre was garbage though.. I think Sony even knew that movie wasn't going to live up to Skyfall, while LF clearly thought they had surpassed TFA with TLJ.

 

Although its really telling that all our examples for sequel drop offs are for movies that almost everyone hates.

Edited by Rebeccas

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The thing is the buzz for the last jedi has turned more negative since release within the fanbase. 

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4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

The thing is the buzz for the last jedi has turned more negative since release within the fanbase. 

Hard to judge that but I do think we can put to rest the "alt right rolls ruined TLJ's RT score" now that we see Black Panther sitting at a 79 audience score. If we compare that to the typical Marvel top tier score of 90, that's about a 10% lower score than usual. Which means TLJ's real audience score is.... 58%! YAY!

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13 hours ago, The Last AndyLL said:

How about the drop to what many consider the greatest SW film.

 

DOM 1st run

 

SW => ESB = 32% 

TFA => TLJ = 30%

 

An unknown property followed by the best SW film in the theaters for 5-6 months with no streaming

 

compared to

 

The most anticipated/hyped/inflated SW movie that was followed by a (internet facts follow) decisive, childhood killing most despised SW film.

 

 

Domestic 1st run SW-> ESB is like a 20-something drop. If you take first year vs first year grosses, it's an even smaller drop I think. You can sort of see where SW was sitting mid-1978 from here: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-IV-A-New-Hope#tab=box-office

 

Also not sure what you're smoking, but the TFA-TLJ drop is like 34%. And that's assuming TLJ hits $621m.

Edited by Rebeccas

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