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Solo: A Star Wars Story | May 25, 2018 | Bombs in spectacular fashion

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1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

POTC experienced a good lull in its fourth and fifth weekends to inflate the multi. Solo has Incredibles and Jurassic World in its fourth and fifth weekends. Also, POTC5's multi was only about .6x behind TLJ, a holiday release. There's precedent for Star Wars being frontloaded now.

I agree. On the other hand, I presume that this will be a far more crowd pleasing film than TLJ for reasons I have said repeatedly in this thread.  So I fail to see why it couldn't get a 3x off the 3day.

 

Long before Memorial Day weekend was set as the date, I was presuming a 130/400 type run.  I'm not knowledgeable enough to translate that into a Memorial Day weekend 3day/4day split, but I tend to think 25% of Rogue One is a good target to shoot for.

 

---


See, the main problem I have with most of the low ball estimates I see for Solo is that they're using TLJ as a baseline.  I'd rather use Rogue One as a baseline and work from there.  Even a TFA-->R1 vs TLJ--> Solo comparison is heavily flawed IMO for multiple reasons.

 

Compare like with like, I say.  Right now that's Rogue One.  And a 25 percent drop from that sounds good to me, as it only requires a 3.07x off a 130 3day.  

 

If the film had good WOM I don't see why that's so hard to hit.

 

(If the film is a train wreck, then sure, I'm willing to entertain numbers like 350 or 325.  But even that is more or less my floor)

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1 minute ago, John Marston said:

 

 

It definitlely feels similar in that the film doesn’t look that interesting but we still feel we have to predict gigantix numbers no matter what. Deadpool 2 also gives a similar feeling 

I wouldn't call the predictions here or in the DP2 thread "Gigantic" tbh.

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1 minute ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

I wouldn't call the predictions here or in the DP2 thread "Gigantic" tbh.

Yeah, I need to update my prediction list, but I'd say the median guess for Solo is around 350 or so.  Hardly "gigantic", IMO.

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Solo is guaranteed to drop about 62-65% second weekend. Next two weekends should be OK but Jurassic World will destroy it

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4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Solo is guaranteed to drop about 62-65% second weekend.

Why? Is anything coming out then?

Edited by LOGAN'sLuckyRun

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7 minutes ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

Why? Is anything coming out then?

O/W will be inflated by Thur Previews and a most likely near flat Sunday due to Memorial Day

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1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

O/W will be inflated by Thur Previews and a most likely near flat Sunday due to Memorial Day

Ah, ok. That makes sense.

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I imagine this will probably get good critical reception but I'm more curious about how AUDIENCES will react. 

 

I just checked TLJ's RT page, the user reviews sit at 48%, that's a huge disparity against the critic score (91).

Edited by LOGAN'sLuckyRun

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13 minutes ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

I imagine this will probably get good critical reception but I'm more curious about how AUDIENCES will react. 

 

I just checked TLJ's RT page, the user reviews sit at 48%, that's a huge disparity against the critic score (91).

Can't imagine Solo will get that low unless fans completely reject Alden's Han Solo portrayal. Even if the film is completely generic and forgettable it won't get that low of a score that TLJ did. 

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25 minutes ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

I imagine this will probably get good critical reception but I'm more curious about how AUDIENCES will react. 

 

I just checked TLJ's RT page, the user reviews sit at 48%, that's a huge disparity against the critic score (91).

My pet theory?

 

A sizable amount of audience reaction will depend on a. how good Donald Glover is as Lando, and b. How much screentime he receives.  Lando/Glover felt like he got the most hype when they dropped the trailer. If the movie does him well, I totally see people coming out for him. 

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2 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

My pet theory?

 

A sizable amount of audience reaction will depend on a. how good Donald Glover is as Lando, and b. How much screentime he receives.  Lando/Glover felt like he got the most hype when they dropped the trailer. If the movie does him well, I totally see people coming out for him. 

That awkward moment when your Han Solo movie's success rests on the shoulders of Lando...

Edited by MovieMan89

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4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That awkward moment when your Han Solo movie's success rests on the shoulders of Lando...

Well, that is just a theory...

 

Another character could become a fan favorite. :sarah:

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5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That awkward moment when your Han Solo movie's success rests on the shoulders of Lando...

Worked for Black Panther with Killmonger. :ph34r:

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Just now, Porthos said:

Worked for Black Panther with Killmonger:ph34r:

Okoye

 

also Shuri, Nakia, M'Baku and OK... Killmonger

 

Odd how much more dynamic and proactive a character T'Challa was in CW as compared to BP.

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5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That awkward moment when your Han Solo movie's success rests on the shoulders of Lando...

Awkward, or totally indicative of Han and Lando’s relationship? 🤔😉

 

 

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Unpopular opinion but this movie is more likely to have a run similar to Rogue One than a run like Justice League. 

 

Whats funny to me is that over in the Deadpool 2 thread people say it's not going to do well and one of the reasons is Solo but then I hop over into this thread and people are predicting flop numbers for this. So like Deadpool 2 is gonna suffer because of a film that's going to flop :thinking:

 

#BOTlogic

Edited by Nova
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7 hours ago, Nova said:

Unpopular opinion but this movie is more likely to have a run similar to Rogue One than a run like Justice League. 

 

Whats funny to me is that over in the Deadpool 2 thread people say it's not going to do well and one of the reasons is Solo but then I hop over into this thread and people are predicting flop numbers for this. So like Deadpool 2 is gonna suffer because of a film that's going to flop :thinking:

 

#BOTlogic

People might not even realize this since it wasn't that long ago, but Rogue One currently adjusts to 554.85m.

 

Yes, it had Xmas holidays.  But Solo will have summer.  And, 'sides, we are receiving object lesson after object lesson that films can get mega bucks on just about any calendar placement now.

 

Even so, if we knock off around 20% of potential gross for the difference between the holidays and summer, that's still around 444m.  Knock off another 50m for so-called SW fatigue and we get 395m (which, incidentally is approx 25% of the original gross of R1 [.75 x 532 = 399], which has long been my soft-target).

 

This presumes it's as well received as R1, which isn't certain.  And, yes, the movie might be a mess with all of the behind the scenes drama and what not.  

 

But what if it isn't a mess?  And what if it's more a more fun, crowd-pleasing, flick than TLJ?

 

What then?

Edited by Porthos
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