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Monday Actuals: Minions 12.9M (-58%)

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There are so many animations releasing in the recent years. It's interesting that you have to go all the way back to Cars 2 in 2011 to find a 50m+ grossing animation (which there are plenty of) below 2.9x.

Even going back before 2011, there are only four more $50m+ animations below a 2.9x: Pokemon 1 (not the worst multiplier off of a Fri-Sun opening, but absolutely the worst off a Wed-Sun: 1.68x!), SpongeBob (2004), Corpse Bride, and TMNT (2007) (worst multiplier off of a Fri-Sun opening: 2.23x)

Even adjusted for inflation, Pokemon 2000 would be the only other $50m+ adjusted movie to get worse than a 2.9x.

Edited by TServo2049
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It looks this may get multipiler of about 3x-4x (or 40m-50m) during the weekdays before friday, if Im right?

 

I think it will get to high 40s at least.

 

This gives 50.89m

12.95 + 15.54(+20%) + 11.2(-28%) + 11.2

Edited by a2k
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DM2 holds put Minions at 56m weekend and 224m total. Yes, those holds would be the best case scenario, but to suggest it wouldn't make 3x from its second weekend is probably wrong. 3.5x from there would put it at 364m. 

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DM2 holds put Minions at 56m weekend and 224m total. Yes, those holds would be the best case scenario, but to suggest it wouldn't make 3x from its second weekend is probably wrong. 3.5x from there would put it at 364m. 

Yea I think it won't cross 360, but will end up with 360.

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IO takes a big hit, that's 51.5% drop from last Monday. Second and third week drop were 34% and 28.4%

 

This was a bad Monday generally speaking -- last week had a good Monday. JW is down -48%, etc. Good news for IO this week is that it won't drop a ton on Thursday and won't barely increase on Friday. I'm expecting a 12m weekend. 

Edited by Gopher
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Still less of a Monday-to-Monday drop than MU against DM2's first Monday. And while the number is slightly less, that was day 18 for MU and this is day 25 for IO.

If IO pulls a multiplier identical to MU's after DM2's first Monday, IO gets to $351.6m. And yes, I know that was only MU's first 18 days, not first 25. If you use the 1.12x multiplier off of MU's first 25 days, IO would finish at $321.6m. If you average the two (accounting for IO's better WOM and the lack of late-summer family options), it would finish at $336.6m, just within spitting distance of Nemo's first run.

Edited by TServo2049
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This was a bad Monday generally speaking -- last week had a good Monday. JW is down -48%, etc. Good news for IO this week is that it won't drop a ton on Thursday and won't barely increase on Friday. I'm expecting a 12m weekend. 

 

I wonder if some folks took last Monday off to extend their holiday weekend a bit? Might explain the performance week to week.

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This was a bad Monday generally speaking -- last week had a good Monday. JW is down -48%, etc. Good news for IO this week is that it won't drop a ton on Thursday and won't barely increase on Friday. I'm expecting a 12m weekend. 

 

Right. If it has the same % Tue and Wed as last week, it will be 2.4 on Wed.

Last Thu it fell 16% because of Minions. Pervious 2 Thu it was +1% and +3.9%.

Even if it stays flat, a 2.5 Thu will give it a -40% Thu to Thu fall.

Edited by a2k
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Still less of a Monday-to-Monday drop than MU against DM2's first Monday. And while the number is slightly less, that was day 18 for MU and this is day 25 for IO.

If IO pulls a multiplier identical to MU's after DM2's first Monday, IO gets to $351.6m. And yes, I know that was only MU's first 18 days, not first 25. If you use the 1.12x multiplier off of MU's first 25 days, IO would finish at $321.6m. If you average the two (accounting for IO's better WOM and the lack of late-summer family options), it would finish at $336.6m, just within spitting distance of Nemo's first run.

It will finish with at least $350M. I doubt it will finish less than $340M. MU fell like a rock after its 4th weekend.

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It will finish with at least $350M. I doubt it will finish less than $340M. MU fell like a rock after its 4th weekend.

So it looks like IO is either going to be Pixar's #3 or #2 DOM first run, #3 DOM with re-releases included, either their #2 or #1 original DOM, #2 original DOM with re-releases included, something like their #6 or #7 highest attended DOM (not sure if it would actually beat The Incredibles even at its best potential finish, the BOM adjusted number probably doesn't account enough for premiums?), #4 or #5 highest attended original DOM (again, depending which side of TI's admissions it actually falls on), and their highest-attended original in 11 years.

Read that again - if it sells more tickets than Up, it will be Pixar's most attended original since The Incredibles. Heck, depending on whether you count Frozen as "original", this could end up being the highest-attended animated original, PERIOD, since The Incredibles, as well as the highest-attended original DOM post-Avatar (surpassing Inception). With the deluge of CG animation since 2004, and the increase in sequels/franchises, this is amazing.

Edited by TServo2049
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