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Aladdin live action movie | 24 MAY 2019 | Disney | 7th most profitable movie of 2019. Disney does it again!

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2 hours ago, jedijake said:

Naomi's a good enough singer they should just keep her version. But then again, they would have done that for Idina Menzel too I guess.

so there is a Demi Lovato version of Let It Go, this is information I could have lived without. Thanks a bunch.

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https://www.boxofficepro.com/trailer-impact-3-21-19/

 

Quote

Aladdin / Disney / Friday, May 24

  • 27.6% of moviegoers (107 respondents) saw and recalled the trailer this week.
  • It enters the recall metric at #2 on its first week of tracking.

Aladdin / Disney / Friday, May 24

  • 58.7% of respondents who saw the trailer this week said they intend to see it in theaters.
  • It spends its first tracking week in the top three on the ‘interest in a cinema view’ metric, at #3.

 

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Long range tracking seems EXTREMELY low! Less than 50% of BatB? I can't see how that is possible. Maybe after the February panned teaser. But not after the very well received full trailer. I'd say at least 60% of BatB giving it $300 million domestic with around $100 million OW.

 

Maybe this whole live action thing truly is wearing down its welcome. Interesting to see what happens to TLK.

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14 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Long range tracking seems EXTREMELY low! Less than 50% of BatB? I can't see how that is possible. Maybe after the February panned teaser. But not after the very well received full trailer. I'd say at least 60% of BatB giving it $300 million domestic with around $100 million OW.

 

Maybe this whole live action thing truly is wearing down its welcome. Interesting to see what happens to TLK.

I think it has more to do with competition, as Pika/Ali/Pets2/TS4 are during an 8 week interval, all aiming at $300M DOM, as well as the Memorial Day spot of doom. Besides legs likely won’t be too good anyways.

 

That said if this and Dumbo underperform DOM, that won’t hurt TLK as it’s a beast of it’s own nature.

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1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I think it has more to do with competition, as Pika/Ali/Pets2/TS4 are during an 8 week interval, all aiming at $300M DOM

 

Oh, right? There's a BIG point you've missed though. Here's a handy, nifty Shay-chart, to show you da way:

 

-----------------Pika------Aladdin------Pets2------TS4

Animated:-------NO--------NO---------YES--------YES

Cringy:----------YES--------NO---------NO--------YES

For small kids---YES--------NO---------NO--------YES

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7 hours ago, shayhiri said:

 

Oh, right? There's a BIG point you've missed though. Here's a handy, nifty Shay-chart, to show you da way:

 

-----------------Pika------Aladdin------Pets2------TS4

Animated:-------NO--------NO---------YES--------YES

Cringy:----------YES--------NO---------NO--------YES

For small kids---YES--------NO---------NO--------YES

I stop following you when you said both Pets and Aladdin weren’t for small kids. All of them are rated PG. 

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The apparent SEVERE underperformance of Dumbo that is pending is making me very very worried about Aladdin. I don't think that any movie will shine through June except for End Game (of course). I think that subtracting $40-$50 million from every movie's predicted domestic total is probably a safe measure. For some, subtracting $80 million may be safe. That's the nature of competition I guess?

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1 minute ago, jedijake said:

The apparent SEVERE underperformance of Dumbo that is pending is making me very very worried about Aladdin. I don't think that any movie will shine through June except for End Game (of course). I think that subtracting $40-$50 million from every movie's predicted domestic total is probably a safe measure. For some, subtracting $80 million may be safe. That's the nature of competition I guess?

$ 80M 3-day for Aladdin will be a good result... basically nobody is expecting much more than $ 220 - 250M DOM [which is good] because of the strong competition.

 

Dumbo always is expected to be a medium size hit, the animation is too old and isn't exactly one of the most remembered disney movies, so the live action it's just doing worse than expected [lack of marketing + bad reception is probably the major reasons]. Aladdin is completely different, marketing is good, latest trailer erase the backlash, the songs are in it and the character have much more appeal especially OS.

 

Aladdin will not be another BTAB, but should do $ 700 - 800M despite the competition.

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20 minutes ago, jedijake said:

The apparent SEVERE underperformance of Dumbo that is pending is making me very very worried about Aladdin. I don't think that any movie will shine through June except for End Game (of course). I think that subtracting $40-$50 million from every movie's predicted domestic total is probably a safe measure. For some, subtracting $80 million may be safe. That's the nature of competition I guess?

Again Dumbo doesn’t really relate to this, in think it’s a matter of circumstance. I think Aladdin will do well OS even with competition (as to be honest, it’s more of a DOM problem) as dates are more spread out and different market potentials (for example I think Aladdin could do $100M in Japan where as Pika would struggle with $40M) like really well so it’s not a problem. 

 

The 8 week time frame may hinder domestic more than OS but I still see everything doing fine even with Endgame as it’ll make most of it’s money, the first two weeks:

 

TS4: $100M/$365M

Pika: $105M/$305M

Pets 2: $90M/$285M

Aladdin: $90M/$270M

Godzilla: $80M/$230M

 

 

12 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

$ 80M 3-day for Aladdin will be a good result... basically nobody is expecting much more than $ 220 - 250M DOM [which is good] because of the strong competition.

 

Dumbo always is expected to be a medium size hit, the animation is too old and isn't exactly one of the most remembered disney movies, so the live action it's just doing worse than expected [lack of marketing + bad reception is probably the major reasons]. Aladdin is completely different, marketing is good, latest trailer erase the backlash, the songs are in it and the character have much more appeal especially OS.

 

Aladdin will not be another BTAB, but should do $ 700 - 800M despite the competition.

This but I am thinking around MU numbers (~$90M/$270M) DOM.

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord
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Dumbo never really had all that strong trailer views from what I recall. Aladdin and especially Lion King always tracked far stronger on social media - even during the infamous Grammy sneak peek.

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