Aladdin live action movie | 24 MAY 2019 | Disney | 7th most profitable movie of 2019. Disney does it again!

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

BOP released updated tracking for this yesterday and had it opening at $80M which was an 8% decrease from last week. And if it’s $85-115M for the FOUR day I’m not sure what you’re arguing with me about because the midway range of that would be roughly $80M three day which is where I have it opening. 

I'm suggesting that if it does 90 million OW, it's gonna be 250 minimum DOM and 750WW

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

Tracking for Aladdin has not been released. BOP is just guessing like all of us

No doubt. BOP is wrong often. Early tracking is mostly guessing as well. We won't know for a while even a real range and reception matters. Dumbo is 30 minutes shorted and has 90% RT, 80 MC and it's at 150+ DOM right now 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

I'm suggesting that if it does 90 million OW, it's gonna be 250 minimum DOM and 750WW

All I did was come in here and say that I don’t think this movie will flop but I don’t think it’s gonna do as well as some of you think. I have it at $200M domestic and $400M or so OS for a $600M total. So our domestic totals are within range. I just don’t think it’s gonna do as well as you think OS 

[cdsacken]

200 isn't possible with even an 80 OW unless it sucks like Dumbo. Guess we'll see. If it sucks worse than Dumbo maybe 600 happens. That would be one awful film. That's like pika getting 35% reviews and doing 500 WW. I hope both do we'll.

Edited April 20, 2019 by cdsacken

[Nova]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

200 isn't possible with even 80 OW unless it sucks like Dumbo. Guess we'll see. If it sucks worse than Dumbo maybe 600 happens. That would be one awful film. That's like pika getting 35% reviews and doing 500 WW. I hope both do we'll.

It’s a MDW release which causes its legs to not be as good as if it were released any other time just by virtue of it being a holiday weekend. An $80M 3-day MDW opener would get it to roughly $200M plus or minus $10M depending on reception, 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Nova

[cdsacken]

Dumbo was horrible and it's gonna get near 2.5 yes if it sucks 200 is possible with 80 OW 4 day. Otherwise no.

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Dumbo was horrible and it's gonna get near 2.5 yes if it sucks 200 is possible with 80 OW 4 day. Otherwise no.

80M is for the 3 day. And I am just giving info as an FYI but holiday weekend releases for the most part don't have legs that are as good as other movies ONLY because the holiday weekend takes a good chunk out of the final gross. For example Solo made $84M for its 3 day and $213M total. Days of Future Past made $90M for its 3 day and $220M total. 

 

I mean if Aladdin only does $80M for the 4-day then its not touching $200M domestic. But as I always say nothing in box office is 100% and who knows maybe Aladdin bucks the trend of MDW releases and gets a 3x multiplier of its 3 day. BUT that's why my prediction is $80M 3 day weekend for $200M domestic. If it can get to $90M then I think $220-$230M will happen (and so on) 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Nova

[TMP]

13 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Dumbo is 30 minutes shorted and has 90% RT, 80 MC and it's at 150+ DOM right now

I don't think Aladdin's even gonna be fresh, so RT scores probably won't be a strong gauge for this doing well

[The Futurist]

Feige cannot supervize all the Disneys.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Alli said:

Even if it underwhelms domestic, it's gonna be a monster OS.  so let's say worst case scenario 250M domestic 500M OS

this. Aladdin can afford to underperform dom (though it won't) cause OS will be gigantic. 

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

I don't think Aladdin's even gonna be fresh, so RT scores probably won't be a strong gauge for this doing well

Well if you're right then it will do badly. I seriously doubt it personally. Burton was just a horrible choice for Dumbo. Aladdin won't be dreary and depressing

[ThomasNicole]

No one is really overpredicting this movie, in general everybody think this will gross $ 220-230M (which is reasonable).

 

The question here is OS, that’s why Aladdin isn’t like Solo. After TLK, Aladdin is the most famous Disney animation overseas, so expect $ 500M OS is also reasonable, could be even bigger if somehow does well in China.

 

Dumbo did bad not because of reviews, it’s because promotion are terrible and the movie itself didn’t connect with public. Aladdin could have the exact same reception on rotten tomatoes and probably public will still gonna love it because unlike Dumbo, Aladdin will be energetic, colorful and with numerous songs. Also marketing for Aladdin is already way better than it was for Dumbo.

 

My prediction now is:

OW: $ 85M (105M 4-day)

Total:$ 235M

OS:$ 520M

WW: $ 755M

 

[YM!]

OS was always going to be the big fish for Aladdin. I suspect DOM likely won’t be extraordinary due to competition but OS is more spread out and it’ll have a bigger presence.

[cdsacken]

Yep and if it manages only 675 or something that is still  successful. Granted I do want more for it.

[WhiteWings]

If this underperforms we're gonna be pretty close into verifying that @That One Guy is the one true prophet.

 

I didn't think they could screw up Dumbo after they nailed his visuals, yet I can still taste ashes in my mouth.

I'm not sure what to expect from Aladdin. Disney front-loading? Sure. But this should be way bigger than Dumbo, just how badly would they have to screw this up? Right now Jaffar looks like the weakest link yet I won't be surprised if he somehow turns out to be the redeeming quality, looking at how misleading Disney trailers have been (be it on purpose, or not).

Edited April 20, 2019 by WhiteWings

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, WhiteWings said:

If this underperforms we're gonna be pretty close into verifying that @That One Guy is the one true prophet.

 

I didn't think they could screw up Dumbo after they nailed his visuals, yet I can still taste ashes in my mouth.

I'm not sure what to expect from Aladdin. Disney front-loading? Sure. But this should be way bigger than Dumbo, just how badly would they have to screw this up? Right now Jaffar looks like the weakest link yet I won't be surprised if he somehow turns out to be the redeeming quality, looking at how misleading Disney trailers have been (be it on purpose, or not).

 

More power to everyone like you who still have hopes for Jaffar in this movie. But while i do think that the marketing has improved and that the 2nd trailer saved some face for this film, Jaffar ... he looks and sounds just so horrible compared to the Original. I cant imagine him beeing good in this.

[Eric Atreides]

 

[dudalb]

On ‎4‎/‎20‎/‎2019 at 7:44 AM, Brainbug said:

 

More power to everyone like you who still have hopes for Jaffar in this movie. But while i do think that the marketing has improved and that the 2nd trailer saved some face for this film, Jaffar ... he looks and sounds just so horrible compared to the Original. I cant imagine him beeing good in this.

What we have seen of Jafar is an example of why Ritchie was such a horrible choice to direct this movie.

Oh, it will open well..marketing can buy you a big opening....but if the film is received as badly as I think it might, it's going to have weak legs.

[shayhiri]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

 

Terrible, sappy trailer - but it seems exactly what you all here wished for, so y'all gotta like it - and the movie.

 

And the common folk of the GA too.

Edited April 23, 2019 by shayhiri

[Eric Atreides]