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WrathOfHan

Weekend Estimates: Ant-Man 58.04 | Minions 50.24 | Trainwreck 30.24 | IO 11.66 | JW 11.36 (Page 88)

By WrathOfHan, in Numbers and Data

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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

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I'm pretty surprised Disney is admitting defeat to the negative spin-meisters. $58m is a very good opening. Did they read too much of this forum and get their hopes up too much?

 

Disney has been awful at managing expectations on Marvel movies this year. Remember this gem from prior to Noon Pacific time on May 1st?

 

 
They also didn't release a lowball number this weekend when tracking was saying 65M unlike what Universal did last weekend saying 85M was their target for Minions.
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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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Disney has been awful at managing expectations on Marvel movies this year. Remember this gem from prior to Noon Pacific time on May 1st?

 

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They also didn't release a lowball number this weekend when tracking was saying 65M unlike what Universal did last weekend saying 85M was their target for Minions.

 

 

 

They were pretty much right with TA2 but the boxing match sucker punched them. Woulda hit $200m if not for that. You are right though, the studio is always supposed to lowball this stuff.

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Wrath Box Office Gold

Wrath

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I've always thought a $50-60m budget movie with some of the side characters could be fun. They don't all have to be tent poles and make a billion dollars.

Absolutely, it'd be great fun.

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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She was good in the movie and she is hot. I know why she thinks that, tho, it is not surprising.

 

Shito is in Ant-Man?

 

:rofl:  :rofl:

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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Shito is in Ant-Man?

 

:rofl:  :rofl:

No. Evangeline Lilly is an actress from the Hobbit trilogy and she hates all actors from that franchise with passion. 

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted (edited)

Heading out to see Trainwreck....some quick thoughts on the day here and such

Ant-Man's opening isn't really that far off from Cap and Thor. And it will probably outgross both of them or at least Captain domestically. So this opening isn't really a disappointment at all. In fact, it's pretty expected. In fact Guru predicted a 57 million dollar opening based on a litany of factors, but he obviously used Cap and Thor as a barometer.

Yep, I was wrong about Minions dropping less than 50%. Keyser and Gopher and all of the other brainiacs, I bow to you. Minions obviously had a big rush factor to it which contributed to the drop. Sure it fell hard this weekend but it will recover and still have a 3X. Plus the budget is about half of what other animated films are so it's going to be a big winner for Universal. A billion dollars is locked at this point. So hate it (I didn't like the movie at all just for the record) but the wom is not terrible and profit wise it's going to be much bigger than IO.

IO falls 34% and is probably going to end at around 350. I liked this movie a lot so I'm rooting for it to do well. Internationally, I'm not sure where it has left to open but it's already close to 500 mill so it looks like it will make at least 700 mill. If it does well in China, much more.

JW will hit 1.6 bill. In the immortal words of Russel K from Independence Day.... UP YOURRRRRRS TELE!!!

Off to see the movie.

Edited by baumer
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The Futurist Global Phenomenon

The Futurist

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I'm pretty surprised Disney is admitting defeat to the negative spin-meisters. $58m is a very good opening. Did they read too much of this forum and get their hopes up too much?

 

Well, after Guardians, I guess some DISNEY suits thought, believed that Feige could turn any Marvel C-list into gold since those suits probably don't know much about comics and how the geek world works.

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TServo2049 Box Office Gold

TServo2049

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But weren't these films greenlit BEFORE GOTG broke out? Ant-Man was, at least.

Oh wait, you mean the people at Disney trusted Marvel would pull off another GOTG-level success?

In hindsight, isn't Ant-Man is going to do what a lot of people early on thought GOTG was going to do? Oh, how a breakout hit can change expectations.

Edited by TServo2049
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JennaJ Box Office Gold

JennaJ

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But weren't these films greenlit BEFORE GOTG broke out? Ant-Man was, at least.

Oh wait, you mean the people at Disney trusted Marvel would pull off another GOTG-level success?

In hindsight, isn't Ant-Man is going to do what a lot of people early on thought GOTG was going to do? Oh, how a breakout hit can change expectations.

 

It's all about expectations but I guess it doesn't help that Ant-Man arrives after AOU also did less than what Disney expected it to (based on their own public OW projection), not to mention media and people like us.

 

But all it takes is for Civil War (or GOTG 2) to overperform again, and the narrative switches from "Marvel is not almighty" to "Marvel is back at its A game".

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