Official Weekend Estimates: Straigth Outta Compton - 56.1M; The Man From UNCLE - 13.5M; MI5 - 17.3M; Fantastic Four - 8M

[baumer]

To be fair I think it will stay at 20 million next weekend I'm just saying the possibility is there that you could miss it. I think if it drops 65% it will miss 20 million.

[abra]

6TH UPDATE, Monday 6:30 AM: Universal has yet to officially report, but early morning estimates show that Straight Outta Compton had more platinum in it this weekend than we originally thought with close to $60.5M. That now means the F. Gary Gray film is the fifth-highest August opener, slotting above M. Night Shyamalan’s Signs ($60.1M). Compton‘s weekend also outstrips the first weekends of such summer tentpoles Ant-Man ($57.2M) and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($55.5M) which were playing in close to 1,200 fewer venues than the N.W.A. biopic’s 2,757 theater count. Industry estimates originally figured that Compton would be off 20% from its Saturday B.O. of $19.4M, however it only slipped 13% yesterday, raking in $16.8M. As reported yesterday, Compton reps record openings for F. Gary Gray and producers Ice Cube, Will Packer and Scott Bernstein. Legendary co-financed Compton which carries an estimated cost of $29M before distribution and marketing expenses. UTA packaged Compton with its clients Gray, Ice Cube, Packer, producer Matt Alvarez; thesps Paul Giamatti, Jason Mitchell, O’Shea Jackson Jr. and DP Matthew Libatique. Disney Marvel’s Guardians Of The Galaxy owns the title as the biggest August opener of all-time with $94.3M.

 

 

 

http://deadline.com/2015/08/straight-outta-compton-man-from-u-n-c-l-e-weekend-box-office-1201499183/

Edited August 17, 2015 by abra

[mahnamahna]

Compton is going to be so incredibly front-loaded that if it wins next weekend I would not be surprised to see it dropped third the weekend after. I hope it has a traffic multiplier but I doubt it gets to 120 million.

it just had a 10% drop on Sunday. It won't have super-legs, but with a $60 million OW, missing $120 million and a 2x would mean mediocre WOM considering how empty the rest of this month is. Yes, it's frontloaded, but it's also the only thing worth seeing until September 18th. Notorious came out in an unusually strong Jan-Feb period, and didn't exactly have great reviews/WOM, so I wouldn't compare it to Compton. 

 

Even 8 Mile did more than a 2x. Compton should at least do $130 million from a $60 million OW. 3x is not happening. 2.5x is most likely not happening. But a 2x is most likely happening. $65-70 million more isn't that crazy, considering the lack of competition the next 4 weeks. 

 

Less than $20 million is certainly possible - but $18-19 million is about as low as I can see it going, unless something breaks out. I think it'll end up at least at $120-125 million DOM, even with a 65-70% 2nd weekend drop. 

Edited August 17, 2015 by mahnamahna

[Avatree]

it just had a 10% drop on Sunday. It won't have super-legs, but with a $60 million OW, missing $120 million and a 2x would mean mediocre WOM considering how empty the rest of this month is. Yes, it's frontloaded, but it's also the only thing worth seeing until September 18th. Notorious came out in an unusually strong Jan-Feb period, and didn't exactly have great reviews/WOM, so I wouldn't compare it to Compton. 

 

Even 8 Mile did more than a 2x. Compton should at least do $130 million from a $60 million OW. 3x is not happening. 2.5x is most likely not happening. But a 2x is most likely happening. $65-70 million more isn't that crazy, considering the lack of competition the next 4 weeks. 

 

Less than $20 million is certainly possible - but $18-19 million is about as low as I can see it going, unless something breaks out. I think it'll end up at least at $120-125 million DOM, even with a 65-70% 2nd weekend drop. 

10% sunday drop? It dropped 35%...

[CJohn]

10% sunday drop? It dropped 35%...

Gopher said that is not true a few pages ago. The drop was 10%. That is crazy.

 

EDIT: I had 18% initially but then I checked Gopher's post and it is indeed 10%. 

Edited August 17, 2015 by CJohn

[kayumanggi]

#StraightOuttaCompton soars higher SUN for $60M wknd - 3rd best R-rated summer opening of all-time after Matrix2 & Hangover2.

— Gitesh Pandya (@giteshpandya)

August 17, 2015

[CJohn]

Just looked at the full estimates and I'd love to champion PHOENIX, one of the best movies of the year, for having good expansions for such a tiny release-- its theater count doubled and its PTA dipped only 20%. Everyone should check it out if they can, it'll leave you so warm and so so cold. 

 

Speaking of warm things, everything seems underestimated (MI5 down -28% sunday, UNCLE -27%) but COMPTON IS DOWN -10% HOLY CRAP HOLY CRAP

Actually it is 10%!!!!

[Avatree]

Gopher said that is not true a few pages ago. The drop was 10%. That is crazy.

 

EDIT: I had 18% initially but then I checked Gopher's post and it is indeed 10%. 

Oh, I haven't been reading the thread. If 10% then fair enough.

[Krissykins]

Fantastic for the film getting over $60m.

Shame I have no interest in it.

What's Sinister 2 tracking at?

[BenedictL11]

If not for that Ed Sheeran it would have been flat.

http://www.showbuzzdaily.com/articles/the-sked-sunday-ratings-8-16-2015.html

 

Ed Sheeran concert special had bad ratings last night. 

[PenguinHyphy]

http://www.showbuzzdaily.com/articles/the-sked-sunday-ratings-8-16-2015.html

 

Ed Sheeran concert special had bad ratings last night. 

 

I have no idea why people in this thread were expecting that to do well. It is not like he is Drake or Taylor Swift. 

Edited August 17, 2015 by PenguinHyphy

[The Dark Alfred]

People have weird expectations like people consider Entourage a flop which is hilarious to me. A show with limited fanbase that finished ages ago doing over 30m is not bad. Doubt Mad Man or Broadwalk Empire would do half of that. GoT would be interesting though.

[PenguinHyphy]

 

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

 

That makes it the seventh highest opening weekend for an R-rated film of all time unadjusted. R-rated films have been doing quite well this year.

[TalismanRing]

WB spent too much making and promoting Entourage. It made about as much as could reasonably be expected but they read the market for the movie all wrong thinking it would be the male Sex & The City

 

$30m to produce and WB spent $40m on just TV advertising in the U.S

 

But then WB sends a lot on advertising compared to other studios.. (List doesn't even include the $30m they just spent on UNCLE)

 

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/mid-year-movie-report-warner-bros-dominates-top-tv-ad-budgets-1201539126/

 

1. Get Hard (Warner Bros.): $44.5 million
2. Focus (Warner Bros.): $43.3 million
3. Mad Max: Fury Road (Warner Bros.): $41.8 million
4. Jupiter Ascending (Warner Bros.): $41 million
5. Entourage (Warner Bros.): $40.6 million
6. Run All Night (Warner Bros.): $39.3 million
7. Jurassic World (Universal): $32.4 million
8. Hot Pursuit (Warner Bros.): $31.8 million
9. Furious 7 (Universal): $31.7 million

[terrestrial]

weekend actuals (only small releases seem to be ready, not so much to count?)

 

Assassination (2015)    $293,230    2%    29    -4    $10,111    $819,111    2    
Meru    $91,279    --    7    --    $13,040    $91,279    1    
Go Away Mr. Tumor    $50,036    --    15    --    $3,336    $50,036    1    
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Cli...    $3,873    -20%    3    -3    $1,291    $914,078    15    
Gemma Bovery    $2,034    98%    4    0    $509    $185,950    12    
Alleluia    $36    -91%    1    -1    $36    $6,144    5

[filmlover]

People have weird expectations like people consider Entourage a flop which is hilarious to me. A show with limited fanbase that finished ages ago doing over 30m is not bad. Doubt Mad Man or Broadwalk Empire would do half of that. GoT would be interesting though.

Considering it opened it more than 3,000 theaters (especially when a project like the Veronica Mars movie, which generated a lot more noise and fan passion than an Entourage movie ever did, had to be crowd-funded in order to finally be given the green light), it's safe to say a measly $30M gross is not what they were hoping for.

[AniNate]

Considering it opened it more than 3,000 theaters (especially when a project like the Veronica Mars movie, which generated a lot more noise and fan passion than an Entourage movie ever did, had to be crowd-funded in order to finally be given the green light), it's safe to say a measly $30M gross is not what they were hoping for.

 

Not to mention they were promoting it really heavily in the week leading up to release.

 

$45 million WW gross versus a $30 million budget is a flop no matter how you try to qualify it.

Edited August 17, 2015 by tribefan695

[The Dark Alfred]

Again you guys are hooked up with the budget thing. That's the studios fault, but when it comes predicting box office, it was never gonna do SatC number, come on. 50m would have been a nicer total, but then again the film came out way after the show ended. Breaking Bad wouldn't do more that either. It's not great considering how much WB spent on marketing, but I think it did ok. Bit harsh to put into the same box as FF or Ted 2.

 

Vacation might outgross FF, how hilarious that is.

Edited August 17, 2015 by Alfredstellar

[AniNate]

They shouldn't have made the film, period

[filmlover]

Again you guys are hooked up with the budget thing. That's the studios fault, but when it comes predicting box office, it was never gonna do SatC number, come on. 50m would have been a nicer total, but then again the film came out way after the show ended. Breaking Bad wouldn't do more that either. It's not great considering how much WB spent on marketing, but I think it did ok. Bit harsh to put into the same box as FF or Ted 2.

 

Vacation might outgross FF, how hilarious that is.

Yeah, it wouldn't have been such a bomb if WB had not spent so much under the misguided assumption that it was going to be even close to another Sex and the City. But then that was probably more Wahlberg's doing than theirs, the movie was only made because he wanted it to be made in the first place.