RED SPARROW | 03.02.18 | Fox | Jennifer Lawrence

[Alli]

Agh and february has 28 days this year. 

[Barnack]

21 minutes ago, Alli said:

^^^^that’s good news. It must be quite good if they risk reviews getting out this early

On the link it play 28th feb, only 1 day before Europe regular release according to imdb release dates (you probably mixed up the release date in your head).

Edited January 25, 2018 by Barnack

[WrathOfHan]

Maybe this is just the GP premiere and not the embargo date? Fox is normally good with letting the embargo up early save for TGS and CU

[Alli]

So OW what do you guys think it can do? If it sucks it needs a good OW.  Is 25M fine for it? Atomic Blonde made 18M

[That One Girl]

Come on guys, they can still do press screenings for it in advance.  This isn’t a sure sign that the movie is bad

[Barnack]

16 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Come on guys, they can still do press screenings for it in advance.  This isn’t a sure sign that the movie is bad

I do not think anyone implied that getting in a film festival was a sign of being bad.

 

Just that with being just one day before that market release it is not that special (and yes the festival have very low requirement in term of premiere, does not need to be a world premiere or anything like that).

 

 

Quote

 

So OW what do you guys think it can do? If it sucks it needs a good OW.  Is 25M fine for it? Atomic Blonde made 18M

 

Hard to be in Fox mind, but I would imagine 25m OW would be in the high range, box office pro has it around 23/24m right now I think.

 

A 80-85m dbo with a 35/65 split would put it between 225 and 240m WW.

 

When Inferno (an other Budapest recent production) had a planned 90m production cost (before the lower exchange rate rebate happened) it had an expected break point at 74.8m / 145m, 220m WW with a good return point (15.8% ROI) at 100m dbo / 204m intl, for 303m WW.

 

If that movie budget is more 65m to 75m than 90m it would look more like 240m WW for a 15% ROI I imagine.

Edited January 25, 2018 by Barnack

[trifle]

1 hour ago, Alli said:

Ah but isn’t margot already confirmed for the QT role? She seems to be the new IT girl in town. Curious whom will QT chose tho

It's unclear if Margot was confirmed or just one of the people Tarantino spoke to.  He spoke to Jen a couple of weeks before, but I don't know if she took the part or not. My understanding is they were not up for the same role, but it could be Jen turned it down.  I don't want Jen as Tate, I want her as Atkins. But looking at a fuller description the movie seems more focused on the male roles, so maybe there wasn't enough in the female roles, or something, and she wasn't interested, or maybe the role WAS Tate and she wasn't interested.   But Tarantino wanted her for Daisy in Hateful Eight. It is hard to think of him speaking to her about a Sharon Tate role.

 

But I'm thinking now she isn't in it.  She has a bunch of projects she is attached to, but most for one reason or the other seem not to be just around the corner.  Burial Rites supposedly has been looking at filming locations in Iceland, but then again, they just attached the Call Me By Your Name director to that, and it would be awfully fast work for a director to turn on a dime like that.  The script is done for Zelda, being produced by Ron Howard, but I don't know where it stands beyond that.

 

She said she was taking a break, but I hope (selfishly) that it ends soon.

[trifle]

1 hour ago, Alli said:

Oh shiat you’re right. I thought it releases on the 4th. Damn... not good at all then

Who knows when screenings for critics are and when the embargoes end.  Premieres are generally just before release.

[antovolk]

6 hours ago, trifle said:

Who knows when screenings for critics are and when the embargoes end.  Premieres are generally just before release.

Yeah, such fest premieres aren't at all indicative of the embargo date. BR2049 premiered at the Montreal and Zurich film festivals one day before international release too. 

 

they screened a rough cut of the first 20 mins to press last year and reactions so far still remain very positive....it seems Fox are confident in this. Like Logan, expecting this to screen for press mid-February 

 

Thar runtime though *chef's kiss*

Edited January 25, 2018 by antovolk

[sunworshipper]

Run time of two hours and 25 minutes.  Longer than I expected.

[misafeco]

It's a long story, I think this runtime is justified.

[trifle]

1 hour ago, misafeco said:

It's a long story, I think this runtime is justified.

It easily could be justified.  I hope the script makes best use of the material.

[MovieMan89]

It's gonna have to deliver on the WOM front now. A 2 and a half hour runtime will kill a movie like this if WOM is middling or poor. 

[Chewy]

Really hope this does well or March could be an all-time disaster. Feel like the marketing's been pretty light tho

[WrathOfHan]

Yum.

[That One Girl]

A Cure for Wellness - 2 hr. 26 min.

Logan - 2 hr. 17 min.

Alien: Covenant - 2 hr. 2 min.

War for the Planet of the Apes - 2 hr. 20 min.

Kingsman: The Golden Circle - 2 hr. 21 min.

Maze Runner: The Death Cure - 2 hr. 22 min.

Red Sparrow - 2 hr. 25 min.

 

Fox <3

[Alli]

Aren’t there supposed to be several books ? Why did JLaw sign up for a new potential francise? 

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

Aren’t there supposed to be several books ? Why did JLaw sign up for a new potential francise? 

At this level you probably do not lock yourself  on any future movie anyway (that you would not know the director or see a script in advance and in this case not having see what all the books would look like), so it is not a big deal engagement wise.

 

A bit like SALT that was a potential franchise but never got it's sequel or how long it took for Damon to make another Bourne (that he did apparently because of an engagement him and Greengrass being able to make and loose a lot of money on Greenzone).

[Sara12]

 

[trifle]

23 hours ago, Alli said:

Aren’t there supposed to be several books ? Why did JLaw sign up for a new potential francise? 

 

23 hours ago, Barnack said:

At this level you probably do not lock yourself  on any future movie anyway (that you would not know the director or see a script in advance and in this case not having see what all the books would look like), so it is not a big deal engagement wise.

 

A bit like SALT that was a potential franchise but never got it's sequel or how long it took for Damon to make another Bourne (that he did apparently because of an engagement him and Greengrass being able to make and loose a lot of money on Greenzone).

The third book is out in February: "The Kremlin's Candidate".

 

However, Jen has traditionally mixed her passion projects with more lucrative commercial movies, that way she doesn't price herself out of doing her passion projects.