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WrathOfHan

Official Weekend Estimates: Maze Runner - 30.3M | Black Mass - 23.4M | Everest - 7.5M | The Visit - 11.4M | Perfect Guy - 9.7M

By WrathOfHan, in Numbers and Data

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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

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FOX just made a bunch of changes and added new movies to the schedule. That Tim Burton movie was delayed until Christmas 2016 lol. Lionsgate seriously needs to move Allegiant now.

 

Allegiant will most likely move up one week or to Peregrine's old slot to take IMAX screens for 2 weeks.

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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How are the numbers for Black Mass 'great' but the ones for Maze Runner are 'abysmal' when their budgets are essentially equivalent? Also, I have no idea why you guys think that Black Mass is going to jump up by $2,000,000-$3,000,000 on Friday. The Friday predictions have been over predicted for the previous four weekends when it comes to new releases. I am not even going to go into those $50,000,000-$60,000,000 'predictions' that were obviously not based in reality.

 

One is a sequel aimed at a built in audience.  The other is a mob movie with no built in audience that is aimed at a completely different demographic.  Maze Runner won't hit a 3X this time as it is a sequel, where as Black Mass probably will.  So yes, the numbers for BM are much better.

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Accursed Arachnid!™ Summer Tentpole

Accursed Arachnid!™

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One is a sequel aimed at a built in audience. The other is a mob movie with no built in audience that is aimed at a completely different demographic. Maze Runner won't hit a 3X this time as it is a sequel, where as Black Mass probably will. So yes, the numbers for BM are much better.

I think his opinion is based on demographics. MR2 is more kid friendly while Black Mass is not. Also BM could be slightly front loaded due to the appeal of Depp in a role people want to see him in, like Public Enemies which didn't get a 4 multi from its OW even though it opened on a Wed. If both films open to around 10m on Fri I doubt either get 30m+

Edited by Darth Arachnid!™
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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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I think his opinion is based on demographics. MR2 is more kid friendly while Black Mass is not. Also BM could be slightly front loaded due to the appeal of Depp in a role people want to see him in, like Public Enemies which didn't get a 4 multi from its OW even though it opened on a Wed. If both films open to around 10m on Fri I doubt either get 30m+

 

Hmmm...I'd be willing to take that bet.  :)

 

I think you are right, BM will probably fall just short of 30, but still a bet worth taking.  

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

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How do they compare to The Visit and The Perfect Guy at your theater from last week? Are they your personal estimates or based off your theater?

Okay so I was at work all night, sorry for not replying (I wasn't deliberately ignoring anyone) but here's how tonight played out.

Scorch Trials sold roughly 15% more tickets than Insurgent did opening night, and that's about half of what MockingJay did last year. Comparing to other movies (I only have data from Oct 20 2014 onward) Scorch Trials just slightly beat out Compton's opening day, it was 25% ahead of Ant-Man, 2x as many as Fant4stic, neck and neck with MI5, and about 15% more than Fury Road.

Black Mass did okay, but movies like this (especially have our theatre) tend to have smaller opening weekends and (if well liked) could as much as double it's first weekend in its second (like a walk in the woods just did). Anyways, Black Mass sold less than half the tickets of Scorch Trials, but for comparable movies, it did okay; doubled Birdman, on par with Imitation Game, 40% less than American Sniper.

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