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WrathOfHan

Official Weekend Estimates: Maze Runner - 30.3M | Black Mass - 23.4M | Everest - 7.5M | The Visit - 11.4M | Perfect Guy - 9.7M

By WrathOfHan, in Numbers and Data

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Cmasterclay Global Phenomenon

Cmasterclay

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Yeah, cause we had a handful of people expecting a 50M+ opening

The only people that were expecting that much were people who overinflate the value of MovieTickets.com. MT is an extremely flawed metric in a vacuum and it's box office malpractice to treat it as gospel. Looking at reasonable high end comps for Black Mass like Equalizer (34) Gone Girl (37), American Gangster (43) shows zero empirical evidence that a breakout of 50 million plus was in the cards. Yes, as the founder of the SOC over 55 mill OW club, I realize outliers DO happen, but weighing the body of statistical/logical evidence is the most important thing in BO, and when it comes to Black Mass, nothing over like 27 OW is a disappointment. 

Edited by cmasterclay
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Ethan Hunt Global Phenomenon

Ethan Hunt

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The only people that were expecting that much were people who overinflate the value of MovieTickets.com. MT is an extremely flawed metric in a vacuum and it's box office malpractice to treat it as gospel. Looking at reasonable high end comps for Black Mass like Equalizer (34) Gone Girl (37), American Gangster (43) shows zero empirical that a breakout of 50 million plus was in the cards. Yes, as the founder of the SOC over 55 mill OW club, I realize outliers DO happen, but weighing the body of statistical/logical evidence is the most important thing in BO, and when it comes to Black Mass, nothing over like 27 OW is a disappointment.

Yeah I totally agree with you, a month ago I would have been surprised if it opens to 30M

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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The only people that were expecting that much were people who overinflate the value of MovieTickets.com. MT is an extremely flawed metric in a vacuum and it's box office malpractice to treat it as gospel. Looking at reasonable high end comps for Black Mass like Equalizer (34) Gone Girl (37), American Gangster (43) shows zero empirical that a breakout of 50 million plus was in the cards. Yes, as the founder of the SOC over 55 mill OW club, I realize outliers DO happen, but weighing the body of statistical/logical evidence is the most important thing in BO, and when it comes to Black Mass, nothing over like 27 OW is a disappointment. 

MT has not been that flawed concerning a movie in months though. It was extremely reliable this summer to get a general idea of things. The general idea of BM though was that it should be a massive breakout if it was 5x ahead of a YA sequel, which tend to dominate pre-sales. This is by far the biggest anomaly I've ever seen in MT's accuracy and if it continues they will no longer be very reliable at all. There's a reason why most of us who follow MT on a regular basis upped our predictions  for BM so much. Because they do tend to be far more accurate than they are this weekend. The BM number is still great. Before the MT situation I was only expecting 25-30. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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Cmasterclay Global Phenomenon

Cmasterclay

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MT has not been that flawed concerning a movie in months though. It was extremely reliable this summer to get a general idea of things. The general idea of BM though was that it should be a massive breakout if it was 5x ahead of a YA sequel, which tend to dominate pre-sales. This is by far the biggest anomaly I've ever seen in MT's accuracy and if it continues they will no longer be very reliable at all. 

I think that this is a classic instance of confirmation bias. Yes, some movies that were portended for big time breakouts by looking at MT (important to note that it drastically undersold MI, to name just one example) actually broke out, but of course the movies that breakout are going to show up on MT, because all new major new releases show up there, and you can fit and analyze that data in retrospect to a certain film's box office. MT has no baseline. Black Mass did about 35 percent more sales than Perfect Guy Wednesday, but if you were to extrapolate from that data, it would only amount to 3m! There's no way to control for seasonal variation and volume- alot less tickets are being sold now in the fall. There's also no way to control for what movies are advertise and packaged for MT over Fandango. Also, MT has a tiny reach compared to Fandango, and according to data, a much older skew (explaining the MR number), so it is both a tiny sample size and a sampling error in selecting a representative sample. There's nothing wrong with using it as a supplement, but to use it as the ultimate source is just a failure of basic statistic and probability on all levels. 

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PenguinHyphy Indie Sensation

PenguinHyphy

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How are the numbers for Black Mass 'great' but the ones for Maze Runner are 'abysmal' when their budgets are essentially equivalent? Also, I have no idea why you guys think that Black Mass is going to jump up by $2,000,000-$3,000,000 on Friday. The Friday predictions have been over predicted for the previous four weekends when it comes to new releases. I am not even going to go into those $50,000,000-$60,000,000 'predictions' that were obviously not based in reality.

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Jayhawk the Hutt Global Phenomenon

Jayhawk the Hutt

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How are the numbers for Black Mass 'great' but the ones for Maze Runner are 'abysmal' when their budgets are essentially equivalent? Also, I have no idea why you guys think that Black Mass is going to jump up by $2,000,000-$3,000,000 on Friday. The Friday predictions have been over predicted for the previous four weekends when it comes to new releases. I am not even going to go into those $50,000,000-$60,000,000 'predictions' that were obviously not based in reality.

Well BM has potential for much better legs than MR2. I'm pretty sure Friday #'s will jump as we get further into the evening.

Edit: plus, I'm pretty sure that no one is calling Maze Runner's performance "abysmal," at least anyone who should be taken seriously.

Edited by Jayhawk
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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Those people were goddamn foolish and you're foolish in that you bought into it and are now disappointed.

 

I'm a foolish one and I'm not disappointed in the slightest. Predicting box office isn't fun when you don't take risks every now and then.

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Cmasterclay Global Phenomenon

Cmasterclay

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Without even going into statistical analysis or heavy data, this number is right where Black Mass should be, and don't let MT tell anyone different. The Town and the Departed were both heavily marketed Boston crime sagas with starry casts and strong reviews. The Town adjusts to 26 mill. The Departed adjust to 34 million. 30 million is right in the middle of those two numbers, and that's what Black Mass looks to do. Easy peasy. 

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