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WrathOfHan

Weekend Thread | Official estimate: The Martian 55M. Rth Sunday Est Pg43: 13.4M. Gravity will remain October OW record holder.

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One is about the emotions of a young girl dealing with a universal experience of moving away and growing up. The other is about dinosaurs. I honestly don't see Good Dinosaur being in discussion for BP regardless of quality.

 

The question of course comes back to whether more than 5% of the academy will put it as #1. I can easily see IO and Fury Road have more total points than a number of nominated movies, but it comes down to whether enough people will say that those were their absolute favorite movie of the year.

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If there is a "populist" Best Picture nomination I definitely think it's going to be The Martian instead of Mad Max. The latter is going to depend too much on how truly, desperately WB will campaign for it given its summer release. Given that the studio isn't exactly having a great year box office wise (most of their movies, including Mad Max, have made no profits) and they don't have any other strong alternative contenders, they'll most likely just completely sit out from this year's Oscar race for once.

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The question of course comes back to whether more than 5% of the academy will put it as #1. I can easily see IO and Fury Road have more total points than a number of nominated movies, but it comes down to whether enough people will say that those were their absolute favorite movie of the year.

Hopefully the animation division bands together and puts Inside Out as #1.

 

Or alternatively, they could snub it entirely and nominate Minions in its place. I could see that happening in the current animation division considering their past choices  :ph34r:

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I still don't see what exactly the Academy would go for in MM. It represents the kind of movie they've always completely ignored when it comes to any major noms. Unless they're looking to change their public perception, but that's doubtful. 

 

Back to IO, even if TGD is a non-factor (which I doubt if it is taking the Wall-E dialouge light approach), the new voting system is definitely a factor. If it was hard for animated films to get in before, it may be impossible now. 

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Go back to 1978 when it was considered the frontrunner for BP.

 

Go back to 1978, when it revolutionized the industry?

 

That is one heck of a false equivalence

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I think there's a great deal of FURY ROAD love with some Academy members. Moreso, arguably, than either IO or THE MARTIAN. (SW is a complete unknown at this point.)

I don't think anyone's "loving" The Martian yet. It seems to have an oddly muted response compared Gravity or Interstellar.

 

Inside Out... well, I have feeling the campaign for that will depend on how Bridge of Spies is received. Disney might just focus all on the latter while getting Inside Out a Screenplay, Score, and AF nom.

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Watching Selma, and as I watch these movies, I continue to be disgusted at the thought of segregation. What happened regarding black people in the United States in the past is truly appalling and terrible. Even now, I'm trying not to get angry. It's terrible.

 

Yeah, Selma was truly moving, but since I was already familiar with the subject material, it didn't make me as angry. Still, a good movie.

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If there is a "populist" Best Picture nomination I definitely think it's going to be The Martian instead of Mad Max. The latter is going to depend too much on how truly, desperately WB will campaign for it given its summer release. Given that the studio isn't exactly having a great year box office wise (most of their movies, including Mad Max, have made no profits) and they don't have any other strong alternative contenders, they'll most likely just completely sit out from this year's Oscar race for once.

 

The Martian also has more timely and relevant themes.  I love both equally, Fury Road maybe slightly more.  But I agree, if it comes down to Martian vs. Fury Road for populist BP nominee, my money is on Martian.

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