BOT User Tracking 10/9-11 Pan, The Walk (wide), 99 Homes (wide)

[TalismanRing]

Starting to worry 99 Homes might not be that wide. Nowhere by me is playing it. Unless there's an AMC boycott...

 

BOM as of now has it at 500+ which is what I based my prediction on guessing it might just make it wide in the 600s.

[Wrath]

Pan: $25m
The Walk: $7.8m
99 Homes: $0.9m

[Wrath]

Crap. I got held up and I'm going to be gone most of the weekend. I'll try to get to this tonight, but if I don't it won't be until Sunday.

[grim22]

Pan: 21M

The Walk: 6M

[Wrath]

As usual, I went through the various predicts (20 for both Pan and The Walk) and here's what we ended up with:

 

Pan

Mean: 22.2M

Median: 21.4M

StnDev: 3.96M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 17.88%

High: 30.5M

Low: 16M

 

BO.com 16.5M

ComingSoon.com 18.5M

Deadline 20M

ScreenRant.com 16M

Variety 22M

 

 

The Walk

Mean: 9.8M

Median: 9.5M

StnDev: 2.99M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 30.56%

High: 17.5M

Low 5M

 

BO.com 6M

ComingSoon.com 5.8M

Deadline 5M

ScreenRant.com 

Variety 5M

 

The Walk (IMAX)

Mean: 5.0M

Median: 4.5M

StnDev: 1.93M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 38.59%

High: 8.4M

Low 3.0M

 

BO.com 4.2M

ComingSoon.com 2.6M

Deadline 3M

ScreenRant.com 

Variety 3.5M

Edited October 13, 2015 by Wrath

[Wrath]

Ok, no one other than us predicted for 99 Homes, so I'm not going to include it, other than noting that I won best predict for it (0.9M) which is just as well as we didn't predict it very well. Otherwise a crummy week for us. In a vacuum we did badly, though not awfully, but a bunch of side-things all went against us as well: we went high on both films relative to the field and they both disappointed, everyone else did relatively well on both of them, and our StnDev on Pan was a little lower than I would have guessed making things even worse. So, that's the way it goes.

 

Pan

 

Prediction: 22.2M +/- 3.96M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 15.3M (off by 6.9M, so 1.73 stndev)

 

Doing it a little abbreviated because of the week, so the notes for both are above. Best predict was reliable source of Box office optimism, mahnamahna, at 16.

 

The Walk (wide release)

 

Prediction: 9.8M +/- 2.99M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 3.7M (off by 6.1M, so 2.03 stndev)

 

Best predict was TalismanRing at 5.

Edited October 13, 2015 by Wrath