FINDING DORY | 542.3 M overseas ● 1028.6 M worldwide

[Quigley]

Psychological lower limit for Dory's gross by Sunday: $400M

[Omni]

It's not like it really matters anymore.

It did beat Drek domestically, that's all it had to do. Its OS performance is a huge disappointment anyways, doesn't matter if it makes 1.01B or 1.08B.

 

I'm actually rooting for a sub-1.06B finish. Toy Story 3 is an absolute masterpiece and doesn't deserve to be beaten by Dory.

[Jason]

I agree that Dory's OS performance is disappointing, but a lot of the predictions being made for Dory's OS gross were unrealistically high (mine included), taking into consideration just how much the US dollar has strengthened.

 

Here's a table showing the OS gross of a number of recent animated films if the exchange rates at the time of their release were what they are now:

Quote

Title	Year	OS Total	OS Adj
Frozen	2013	$875.7	$751
Minions	2015	$823.4	$771
Ice Age: Continental Drift	2012	$715.9	$558
Zootopia	2016	$681.8	$672
Despicable Me 2	2013	$602.7	$485
Inside Out	2015	$501.0	$468

 

At present exchange rates, no animated film would have reached $800M, and of the three that would still have exceeded $600M, two relied on being enormous hits in a specific market. (Frozen in Japan and Zootopia in China.)

 

With present exchange rates I think it's unrealistic to expect more than $600M OS from an animated film. (Mea culpa, the first prediction I posted was $800M )

[CoolK]

4 hours ago, Omni said:

It's not like it really matters anymore.

It did beat Drek domestically, that's all it had to do. Its OS performance is a huge disappointment anyways, doesn't matter if it makes 1.01B or 1.08B.

 

I'm actually rooting for a sub-1.06B finish. Toy Story 3 is an absolute masterpiece and doesn't deserve to be beaten by Dory.

If Minions can pass TS3...then FD can too..

[Jason]

35 minutes ago, CoolK said:

If Minions can pass TS3...then FD can too..

 

Hey, Minions was a well done...

Spoiler

feature-length advertisement for cute yellow plushies. 

 

[Omni]

On 7/8/2016 at 6:31 AM, CoolK said:

If Minions can pass TS3...then FD can too..

Minions passing Toy Story 3 is a reason for misanthropy, and the proof that the average moviegoer has no respect for animation.

But for the time being, we can still think of that as an absurd exception.

[Omni]

On 7/8/2016 at 2:17 AM, Jason said:

I agree that Dory's OS performance is disappointing, but a lot of the predictions being made for Dory's OS gross were unrealistically high (mine included), taking into consideration just how much the US dollar has strengthened.

 

Here's a table showing the OS gross of a number of recent animated films if the exchange rates at the time of their release were what they are now:

 

At present exchange rates, no animated film would have reached $800M, and of the three that would still have exceeded $600M, two relied on being enormous hits in a specific market. (Frozen in Japan and Zootopia in China.)

 

With present exchange rates I think it's unrealistic to expect more than $600M OS from an animated film. (Mea culpa, the first prediction I posted was $800M )

900M is realistically unrealistic with the current ERs. 800 isn't. Nemo is the best selling dvd of all time, and was a huge hit everywhere. With 13 years of inflation and expanding markets, it had to significantly grow from the original. Okay, China didn't eat it up, but what about France and Spain (especially the former)? UK didn't really deliver. Dory will gross less than Nemo in Europe, and not by a few millions. Japan has been a disappointment as well. At least 700M HAD to happen.

[bambam]

Domestic:	$473,869,641	54.5%
+ Foreign:	$396,400,000	45.5%
= Worldwide:	$870,269,641

[YM!]

FINDING DORY
The forgetful fish continues reeling in a memorable run overseas with another $11.5Mweekend taking the offshore cume to $396.4M. Combined with domestic, that brings the global total to $870.3M. The Disney/Pixar charmer is about to pass Batman V Superman’s $872.7M to become the 4th biggest movie worldwide this year. It will join three other titles from the Mouse to make up the Top 4 of 2016: Captain America: Civil War ($1.152B), Zootopia ($1.023B and The Jungle Book ($941M).

Japan has now overtaken China as the lead offshore market with $40.9M to date. That’s followed by the Middle Kingdom’s $38.4M, Australia’s $35.8M, Brazil’s $33.2M and the UK with $26.4M. That last figure comes after only 10 days of release.

 

From Deadline

[ShinyDave]

UK run is being absolutely whammied by multiple factors - Brexit has not only ruined the exchange rate but also added economic uncertainty that will probably disproportionately hurt expenditure by families, who in turn got rinsed for cash by SLOP and The BFG (which actually has been legitimately big here). And then when Dory did come out, it did so into the midst of an unusually benign summer for the UK - so outdoor activities became a more compelling proposition. (And outside Scotland, the weather forecast is set fair for the reasonably forecastable future, too.)

 

Dory may still have late legs, but it'll fall short of what I expected. TS3 made over $100m here!

[John Marston]

I was expecting more overseas. Looks like it won't make much more than the original despite 13 years of inflation and 3D. 

[YM!]

Dory is still on for the big billion. Domestic, it should make about $480M. Without Japan, HK, UK, and Mexico, Dory made $301M, it should have enough steam for $310M. HK it should end with about $6-6.5M. Japan, it should make about $70-75M. UK, even though the weekend took a dive, it's doing great on weekdays, I think it should end with $50-55M, with a small shot for $60M, if things stabilize. Mexico should finish with $25-27M. In upcoming markets, Germany could do anything, it can underperform (like most Pixar sequels) or overperform (like Nemo, or IO), it should at least make $20M or at best $50M. Italy should do $17-20M. The remainders should do about $21M if it follows Inside Out. It should make $520 OS worst case, at best $570 OS, making anything from $1B to $1.05B.

Edited August 7, 2016 by YourMother

[Olive]

25M more from UK

35M from Japan

10M from DOM

others 15M

50M Germany+Italy

+870M

-------------------

=1005M WW

[Heretic]

20 minutes ago, ShinyDave said:

UK run is being absolutely whammied by multiple factors - Brexit has not only ruined the exchange rate but also added economic uncertainty that will probably disproportionately hurt expenditure by families, who in turn got rinsed for cash by SLOP and The BFG (which actually has been legitimately big here). And then when Dory did come out, it did so into the midst of an unusually benign summer for the UK - so outdoor activities became a more compelling proposition. (And outside Scotland, the weather forecast is set fair for the reasonably forecastable future, too.)

 

Dory may still have late legs, but it'll fall short of what I expected. TS3 made over $100m here!

Indeed. However, it was never going to make TS3 numbers, that was just a monster. 

 

Hopefully it can leg its way to £40m or so, which would be a very good total given the circumstances (big family competition + good weather). It's already over £20m, I don't see why it wouldn't be able to make it to £40m considering the weekday business has been strong. Most of the rest of August is free, Pete's Dragon won't have anywhere near as big an impact as Pets or BFG.

 

The only bad news is that it is set to remain dry, as you said. Later next week and the week after it is set to turn very warm and sunny again, which may prove detrimental yet again to Dory. I guess that's one of the hurdles of releasing in summer in the UK. 

[Jason]

11 hours ago, Omni said:

With 13 years of inflation and expanding markets, it had to significantly grow from the original. Okay, China didn't eat it up, but what about France and Spain (especially the former)? UK didn't really deliver. Dory will gross less than Nemo in Europe, and not by a few millions. Japan has been a disappointment as well. At least 700M HAD to happen.

 

I think box office market expansion is more important for expecting growth in revenue for films rather than the general rate of inflation in the economy. The box office markets that Nemo did well in (Europe + Japan) have not been expanding over the past 13 years, as far as I can tell. Statistics for Japan are here. I can't find exact statistics for Europe but I did find this graph for Europe/Middle East/Africa. (Middle East + Africa is probably about 5-6% of the gross for that entire region, and can safely be ignored.)

 

Dory has definitely been a disappointment in Europe and Japan thus far, I'm not denying that. I just don't think there was any reason to actually expect growth from the original in Europe and Japan. The total adjusted ER gross of Nemo from Europe and Japan is ~$361M. Even if Dory were to have achieved that, reaching $700M would have needed another ~$340M from all other foreign markets. Using adjusted ER grosses, only two animated films have ever done that: Zootopia (~$386M) and Minions (~$383M).

[Fullbuster]

40 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

I think box office market expansion is more important for expecting growth in revenue for films rather than the general rate of inflation in the economy. The box office markets that Nemo did well in (Europe + Japan) have not been expanding over the past 13 years, as far as I can tell. Statistics for Japan are here. I can't find exact statistics for Europe but I did find this graph for Europe/Middle East/Africa. (Middle East + Africa is probably about 5-6% of the gross for that entire region, and can safely be ignored.)

 

Dory has definitely been a disappointment in Europe and Japan thus far, I'm not denying that. I just don't think there was any reason to actually expect growth from the original in Europe and Japan. The total adjusted ER gross of Nemo from Europe and Japan is ~$361M. Even if Dory were to have achieved that, reaching $700M would have needed another ~$340M from all other foreign markets. Using adjusted ER grosses, only two animated films have ever done that: Zootopia (~$386M) and Minions (~$383M).

 

Indeed, Japan and European markets mostly stagnated since 2003. The US is the only mature market that grew since then.

Plus, European nations and Japan have decreasing births, so Dory's target (kids) is reduced : in Japan the number of births in 2015 was at its lowest level since 1890 while in the European Union had more deaths than births for the first time in 2015.

So Dory had to rely on US + Emerging markets with a terrible ER. Under these circumstances that's a good performance

 

 

Edited August 7, 2016 by Fullbuster

[edroger3]

2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Indeed, Japan and European markets mostly stagnated since 2003. The US is the only mature market that grew since then.

Plus, European nations and Japan have decreasing births, so Dory's target (kids) is reduced : in Japan the number of births in 2015 was at its lowest level since 1890 while in the European Union had more deaths than births for the first time in 2015.

So Dory had to rely on US + Emerging markets with a terrible ER. Under these circumstances that's a good performance

 

 

As a brand Nemo in Europa is dead while in Usa is still strong. Disney knew this very well and has made this movie especially for North America (and maybe Latin America)

[Heretic]

No. Nemo still remains one of the most popular animated films ever in the UK at least. 

[Quigley]

37 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

As a brand Nemo in Europa is dead while in Usa is still strong. Disney knew this very well and has made this movie especially for North America (and maybe Latin America)

 

36 minutes ago, Heretic said:

No. Nemo still remains one of the most popular animated films ever in the UK at least. 

 

As others have said, extremely bad ER compared to 2003 and the general recession + Brexit after-effects are not helping. Awaiting numbers from Germany, Italy and Greece, which I personally think will be very good and possibly above Nemo cuz Dory will be released there in the fall, when cinemas are busier.

Edited August 7, 2016 by Quigley

[newbie BO buff]

These countries left ..... maybe not enough to hit 1 billion

 

Lithuania	19 August 2016
Denmark	25 August 2016
Finland	26 August 2016
Norway	26 August 2016
Sweden	26 August 2016
Greece	1 September 2016
Turkey	2 September 2016
Italy	15 September 2016
Austria	29 September 2016
Germany	29 September 2016