FINDING DORY | 542.3 M overseas ● 1028.6 M worldwide

[Jason]

On 6/5/2016 at 3:19 PM, Agafin said:

Spoiler

 

My personal forecast:

 

North America (US & Canada): The first one did $339m in its first run (well over $500m adjusted). I see $430m for this one. Finding Nemo was widly beloved so unless this sucks, I can't see it grossing less than Inside Out which was a 100% original property. This one got that nostalgia which pushed both JW and SW to high levels last year. A performance similar  to Toy Story 3 is about what I expect. $125m OW / $430m DOM. If it gets super good reviews and WOM, then it could certainly challenge Shrek 2's 12 year animated record.

 

Europe: Nemo was absolutely huge here, much bigger than any other Pixar property (including Toy Story). It generated about $280m in 2003 (with slighly better ER than today). In France, I see it selling about 7.2-7.7m tix (the first was sold nearly 10m) which would be about $50-55m (assuming it has a similar ticket price to Zootopia. Germany should be good for 5.0 to 5.5m tix (about $55m). The UK is generally similar to DOM so I expect about £55m ($80m) which is the equivalent of a $430 to $440m DOM performance. Spain will probably do a bit less than the original did in 2003 since the market has somewhat contracted. Still, something like $25m should happen. Italy is usually similar to Spain (though slightly) lower, so $22m or so (both of which are lower than the original). Overall, I see a small increase from the previous one to about $325m.

 

Asia: The first did about $120m here. Japan should be good for $100m to $105m which would be similar to what both sw7 and Alice did here (adjusting to today's exchange rates) so that seems like some kind of ceiling for Disney movies (not named Frozen). Pixar isn't huge in China but seeing the performance of Angry Birds, I can tell that they love their talking animals there so it should still be capable of having a decent run despite the competition, I predict $65-75m (that would be far bigger than most Pixar offerings here). Hong Kong loves Pixar and the market is quite bigger than it was in 2003. $10m should happen. Russia just like its Asian counterparts is fond of talking animals (judging by the performance of Zootopia, Ice Age, Madagascar etc) so I expect $20m. All the other smaller markets like Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore should also increase big time from the first time due to market expansion. I expect $250m from the entire region.

 

Latin America: The original was huge accross this region, I expect a sizable increase (despite the weak currencies). Mexico and Brazil should be huge just like they were for the first one. $30m from Mexico and $25m from Brazil wouldn't surprise me. Assuming these two account for about 55-65% of the region like they usually do, $95m is possible here.

 

Oceania: Just like the UK, Aus should be similar to DOM so around AUS$45m (US$32m) and NZ should do a sixth of that ($5.5m). The whole region should end up just shy of $40m.

 

 

 

Overall: $430 DOM + $710 OS = $1140m.

 

If it's a great movie, I hope it does more.

 

I predicted $800M OS as a scientific wild-ass guess, main reasoning was Zootopia was going to top out at ~$690M OS as an original animation and Minions did $820M OS with the US dollar being relatively close to its current strength.

But I forgot that FD is almost guaranteed to fall far short of Zootopia's total in China, even though it will probably outgross in many other regions. You've got me convinced though that $700M to $750M is a better estimate at this point.

[Purple Minion]

Based on MU numbers, FD should sell at least 10M tickets in Mexico and gross 500M lc ($27M). But if it's really well received and doesn't lose many seats after its 3rd week, it could challenge Minions as the #1 movie in admissions (16M).

[Aristis]

So, for the beginning reviews seem to look promising (92% on RT - 7,3 Average is good, but - of course - doesn't come close to Nemo (8,7))

 

For Germany I hope that it can manage to hit Minion Levels - there is the potential, Finding Nemo had 8,8M admissions - which would be 6,9M to 7M and €50M - €55M ($56M - $61M for the moment, which can easily change) But the Dollar is too strong

 

$700M OS would be great for this, considering China could make less than $50M (while it made $235M for Zoo). In other countries it would make - in this case - $650M against $450M for Zoo.

 

Sadly Germany can contribute to this in 3 1/2 months

[MattW]

I'm thinking 700-750m.

[PanaMovie]

This is going to be HUGE

 

I couldn't get a ticket even for sunday here....

[bladels]

FD is doing horribly in Vietnam, just as any other Pixar's movies.

[Fullbuster]

So the big day! Finally!

[Fullbuster]

41 minutes ago, PanaMovie said:

This is going to be HUGE

 

I couldn't get a ticket even for sunday here....

Latin America will love it for sure.

 

6 minutes ago, bladels said:

FD is doing horribly in Vietnam, just as any other Pixar's movies.

That's totally unfair, no reason for that.

[bladels]

27 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Latin America will love it for sure.

 

That's totally unfair, no reason for that.

It only has 15 showtimes on Sat in our biggest theater and only 1 is in 3D. It doesn't have IMAX either 

[Purple Minion]

A sign of things to come in the US and probably other Pixar-loving markets:

 

Quote

“Finding Dory” is making a splash in advance ticket sales, currently pacing as Fandango’s top pre-selling animated movie of all time, outselling the previous record-holder, “Minions,” at the same point in the sales cycle.

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/fandango-finding-dory-surpasses-minions-top-pre-selling-animated-film-time/

[Fullbuster]

6 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

A sign of things to come in the US and probably other Pixar-loving markets:

 

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/fandango-finding-dory-surpasses-minions-top-pre-selling-animated-film-time/

[juni78ukr]

Not impressed with current Russia numbers. Well below Inside out and well below expectations.

[Fullbuster]

26 minutes ago, juni78ukr said:

Not impressed with current Russia numbers. Well below Inside out and well below expectations.

Finding Nemo didn't seem big in Russia so not a surprise, IO was the only Pixar movie to be really successful there anyway.

[juni78ukr]

1 minute ago, Fullbuster said:

Finding Nemo didn't seem big in Russia so not a surprise, IO was the only Pixar movie to be really successful there anyway.

 

Finding Nemo was the biggest animated movie in Russia and by a high margin. 

[Fullbuster]

In local currency then..But still the lack of interest is weird.

[CelestialFairyIX]

1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:

A sign of things to come in the US and probably other Pixar-loving markets:

 

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/fandango-finding-dory-surpasses-minions-top-pre-selling-animated-film-time/

Every time Fandango releases statements such as these, the movie under-performs. 

 

~ "Kung-Fu Panda 3 in line with Kung-Fu Panda 2"

~ "Allegient outpacing Insurgent"

~ "Batman VS Superman breaking records"

~ "Alice Through the Looking Glass in line with Alice in Wonderland"

 

... Hopefully Finding Dory doesn't fall under the same category!  I do believe this film will do great/huge business worldwide and could possibly defeat Frozen as the top grossing animated film of all time worldwide. 

Edited June 16, 2016 by CelestialFairyIX

[Heat Vision]

This will reach a billion worldwide for sure. People are probably expecting a ridiculous number though.

[Fancyarcher]

6 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

In local currency then..But still the lack of interest is weird.

 

Not sure how Disney's marketing is in Russia, but if it's considered unenthusiastic, I could see why it might be underperforming.

[Jason]

10 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

Finding Nemo didn't seem big in Russia so not a surprise, IO was the only Pixar movie to be really successful there anyway.

 

10 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

Finding Nemo was the biggest animated movie in Russia and by a high margin. 

 

It appears the Russian box office was much smaller back in 2003. Box Office Mojo indicates a final gross of $3.3M, which works out to about ₽100M based on 2003-2004 exchange rate. I don't know what average ticket prices were back then, but less than 100 ₽ seems pretty unlikely, so total number of admissions was probably not more than 1 million.

 

For comparison:

Gross       Adm. Zootopia 2,275,064,104 ₽ 9,376,616 Frozen 1,106,184,366 ₽ 4,779,601 Inside Out 1,066,103,266 ₽ 5,007,546 Big Hero 6 889,919,810 ₽ 4,002,475 Tangled 731,157,700 ₽ 3,446,354 Monsters University 677,603,341 ₽ 3,469,070 Cars 2 558,836,385 ₽ 3,023,453 Brave 531,829,338 ₽ 2,608,926 Wreck-It Ralph 462,333,123 ₽ 2,166,703 Up 378,528,532 ₽ 2,333,026 The Good Dinosaur 349,829,565 ₽ 1,543,796 Bolt 336,669,088 ₽ 2,025,576 WALL * E 274,820,333 ₽ 1,978,805 Ratatouille 263,339,686 ₽ 2,188,944 Toy Story 3 206,121,091 ₽ 1,155,397 Princess and the Frog 154,251,967 ₽ 1,060,153

 

Edited June 17, 2016 by Jason

[Rthmessiah]

Australia OD was 3rd biggest animated non school/public holiday , which will lead it to have one of the biggest animated OWe (holiday or not) should be in top5 also Top5 opening for 2016

Edited June 17, 2016 by Rth