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FINDING DORY | 542.3 M overseas ● 1028.6 M worldwide

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6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

was nemo release during summer? i thought it was released year-end?

Yeah, that should be New year Holiday.

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12 minutes ago, Olive said:

Yeah, that should be New year Holiday.

when is the obon holiday start this year? 11/8 is the public holiday for obon is it? that mean we have 4 days weekend next week!

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37 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

when is the obon holiday start this year? 11/8 is the public holiday for obon is it? that mean we have 4 days weekend next week!

8/11-8/21

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I gather that 1b is not locked for DORY? (Have just skimmed the thread. Seems like a slow roll out and haven't kept track of where it's yet to open).

If it falls below, DORY would become the highest grossing DOM film to not reach 1b.

 

The current highest grossing DOM film to not reach 1b is STAR WARS (461 DOM/775 WW) but that was 1977 so understandable.

 

Ignoring STAR WARS, the highest grossing DOM not to do 1b is ironically the previous animation record holder SHREK 2 : 441 DOM / 919 WW.

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2 hours ago, a2knet said:

I gather that 1b is not locked for DORY? (Have just skimmed the thread. Seems like a slow roll out and haven't kept track of where it's yet to open).

If it falls below, DORY would become the highest grossing DOM film to not reach 1b.

 

The current highest grossing DOM film to not reach 1b is STAR WARS (461 DOM/775 WW) but that was 1977 so understandable.

 

Ignoring STAR WARS, the highest grossing DOM not to do 1b is ironically the previous animation record holder SHREK 2 : 441 DOM / 919 WW.

It's still on track for the big 1Bil, it's been having decent holds this week international.

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2 hours ago, a2knet said:

I gather that 1b is not locked for DORY? (Have just skimmed the thread. Seems like a slow roll out and haven't kept track of where it's yet to open).

 

It has yet to open in Germany, Italy, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Norway, and a number of smaller European countries. It only opened this weekend in the UK, and two weeks ago in Japan.

Most recent territory-by-territory projection was by YourMother:

21 hours ago, YourMother said:

Doing some more math, Dory without Japan, HK, UK, and Mexico made $296 million OS. I now see Dory making about 320 OS without said territories. Dory had a sub 10% drop in Japan. If it keeps on having good drops, Dory will make about $65-70 Million in Japan. Dory had another drop over 50% in Mexico, I think it'll make $27 Million now instead of $30. Hong Kong, Dory will likely end with $6.2-$6.5 Million. UK, Dory made $10.8 million dollars without previews. Since Dory has little competition, I can see it legging it to $55-60 million. In Germany and Italy it'll make about $35 million combined if it follows TS3 and MU, if it follows IO it'll make $45-50 million. In the other territories left, Dory should make about an extra $21 million if it copies Inside Out. 

Edit 1: After further research on Nemo's BO in Germany, I now see it doing anywhere from $40M to $70M.

Worst Case: 490+320+65+27+6.5+55+21+57=$1,042 billion

Middle: $1,055 billion 

Best: $1,070 to 1,075 billion 

My Prediction: $1,060 billion

 

I posted this a week ago, it has some earlier projections that were made in this thread:

Long story short, Dory should hit at least $950M from the territories that are currently open. (485 dom + 65 Japan + 27 Mexico + 6.5 HK + 55 UK + 300 others) It's possible Dory could fall short in Japan/UK but there's a very good chance that domestic and the remaining territories will make up for any shortfall. The remaining ~$50M might even come from Germany alone, but even with Dory underperforming Germany + Italy + Northern Europe will definitely be more than $50M.

 

I would call that "locked".

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33 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

It has yet to open in Germany, Italy, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Norway, and a number of smaller European countries. It only opened this weekend in the UK, and two weeks ago in Japan.

Most recent territory-by-territory projection was by YourMother:

 

I posted this a week ago, it has some earlier projections that were made in this thread:

Long story short, Dory should hit at least $950M from the territories that are currently open. (485 dom + 65 Japan + 27 Mexico + 6.5 HK + 55 UK + 300 others) It's possible Dory could fall short in Japan/UK but there's a very good chance that domestic and the remaining territories will make up for any shortfall. The remaining ~$50M might even come from Germany alone, but even with Dory underperforming Germany + Italy + Northern Europe will definitely be more than $50M.

 

I would call that "locked".

 

That's great. Thanks for the details :)

Looks like it will safely sail over 1b.

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I billion is locked guys.  

20 million more domestic leaves it needing 150 million OS from today.

Between holding well in current markets, markets it's just or recently opened in and markets still to come, 150 million more is guaranteed.  

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Revised weekend numbers (Mojo), up from estimates:

 

Domestic:  $469,115,677    56.4%
+ Foreign:  $361,964,282    43.6%
= Worldwide:  $831,079,959
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1B is absolutely locked, not just very very likely.

WW-Japan weekend was 23/24M. A conservative 4x multiplier (2/5 of that comes from UK, when holidays have just started) puts it above 900M. With Japan, it will at least get close to 950M. Then there are other openers, including Germany and Italy, that cannot possibly combine for less than 35M.

TS3 is definitely the target.

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japan is dory biggest hope now as it holding especially well there, Sk could have been a great recovery since its monday and tuesday grow a big 50% gain from previous week, but will be demolished by that fucking SLOP, which release tomorrow!! how can SK be able to sustain 3 hollywood animated films!!! Dory is going drop harsh tomorrow in SK

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It's a shame Dory will miss $500m domestically...

 

Oh well, at least $1B WW is secure. 

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15 hours ago, Jiffy said:

It's a shame Dory will miss $500m domestically...

 

Oh well, at least $1B WW is secure. 

 

It's fine. It passed Shrek 2 ;)

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2 hours ago, edroger3 said:

2vtw7ko.png

 

Thanks!

I wish you would compare it against IO or Zoo or even SLOP.

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Yeah, it won't come close to Frozen numbers, no need to compare every big movie to Frozen.

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@fastclock I didn't try to replicate @edroger3's table exactly, but here are tables with columns IO and Zootopia. Also added a column for each that adjusts for changes in the USD exchange rate. (Edit: Corrected original exchange rates for IO. Note that since foreign gross is earned over a period of time the adjustments are an approximation, but should be correct to within a few percent.)

 

Summary table of all regions, all figures in US$ millions:

Quote
Region Dory IO Adj1 Zootopia Adj2 Frozen Adj3
Worldwide $833.3 $857.4 n/a $1,023.1 n/a $1,276.5 n/a
United States + Canada $471.4 $356.5 n/a $341.3 n/a $400.7 n/a
All OS Territories $362.0 $501.0 $463 $681.8 $665 $875.7 $737
Africa $3.1 $3.6 $4 $1.5 $2 $3.5 $3
Asia $115.6 $116.3 $119 $370.6 $364 $394.9 $374
Europe $82.3 $241.1 $225 $219.5 $212 $323.1 $246
Latin America $89.4 $112.0 $88 $56.0 $55 $90.4 $61
Oceania $41.2 $26.7 $26 $24.0 $23 $31.1 $26

 

Country-by-country breakdown, all figures in US$ millions:

Quote
Country Dory IO Adj1 Zootopia Adj2 Frozen Adj3
Africa $3.1 $3.6 $3 $1.5 $2 $3.5 $3
Egypt n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a $0.704 $0.7
Ghana n/a $1.962 $2.2 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Kenya n/a $0.064 $0.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Nigeria n/a $0.013 $0.0 n/a n/a $0.167 $0.1
South Africa $3.062 $1.546 $1.3 $1.494 $1.5 $2.660 $1.9
Asia $115.6 $116.3 $121 $370.6 $364 $394.9 $374
China $38.052 $15.314 $14.2 $235.591 $227.3 $48.240 $43.8
Hong Kong $5.822 $8.705 $8.7 $7.043 $7.0 $2.580 $2.6
India $2.799 $1.419 $1.3 $1.699 $1.7 $0.611 $0.6
Israel n/a $4.902 $4.8 $1.654 $1.6 $2.338 $2.1
Japan $30.907 $32.500 $37.8 $70.127 $71.8 $249.037 $240.3
Jordan n/a $0.222 $0.2 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Kuwait n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Lebanon n/a $0.371 $0.4 $0.167 $0.2 $0.607 $0.6
Malaysia $1.940 $1.963 $1.8 $3.134 $3.0 $3.619 $2.9
Oman n/a $0.004 $0.0 $0.094 $0.1 n/a n/a
Philippines $4.640 $3.844 $3.7 $1.022 $1.0 $2.691 $2.5
Singapore $4.089 $3.886 $3.9 $4.370 $4.3 $3.841 $3.5
South Korea $17.117 $33.579 $33.1 $31.259 $31.2 $76.696 $70.7
Taiwan $4.596 $4.748 $4.6 $8.850 $8.8 n/a n/a
Thailand $1.492 $1.649 $1.6 $3.523 $3.5 $1.454 $1.3
United Arab Emirates $4.183 $2.095 $2.1 $2.060 $2.1 $3.142 $3.1
Vietnam n/a $1.094 $1.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Europe $82.3 $241.1 $229 $219.5 $212 $323.1 $246
Austria - $3.235 $3.2 $3.750 $3.6 $5.290 $4.2
Belgium $3.928 $4.122 $4.0 $4.487 $4.3 $7.926 $6.3
Bulgaria $0.373 $0.612 $0.6 $1.011 $1.0 $1.404 $1.1
Croatia n/a $0.167 $0.2 $0.283 $0.3 $0.503 $0.4
Czech Republic $1.879 $1.443 $1.4 $1.416 $1.4 $1.559 $1.3
Denmark n/a $5.988 $6.0 $4.024 $3.9 $7.766 $6.2
Estonia - $0.347 $0.3 $0.394 $0.4 n/a n/a
Finland - $2.967 $2.9 $1.657 $1.6 $2.513 $2.0
France $19.726 $28.600 $27.9 $31.863 $30.7 $46.943 $37.5
Germany - $31.632 $30.9 $34.071 $32.9 $48.287 $38.6
Greece - $2.172 $2.1 $0.945 $0.9 $2.179 $1.7
Hungary $1.034 $1.218 $1.2 $1.456 $1.4 $2.049 $1.6
Iceland $0.310 $0.261 $0.3 $0.313 $0.3 $0.351 $0.3
Italy - $27.140 $26.5 $12.716 $12.3 $26.422 $21.1
Latvia n/a $0.285 $0.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Lithuania - $0.376 $0.4 $0.383 $0.4 $0.577 $0.5
Netherlands $7.346 $5.733 $5.6 $5.806 $5.6 $10.506 $8.4
Norway - $3.275 $3.0 $2.554 $2.5 $7.526 $5.4
Poland $3.362 $4.334 $4.1 $5.931 $5.6 $7.351 $5.6
Portugal $2.051 $2.527 $2.5 $2.079 $2.0 $3.901 $3.1
Romania $0.589 $0.768 $0.8 $1.272 $1.2 n/a n/a
Russia - CIS $9.181 $16.710 $14.2 $32.219 $33.1 $33.436 $16.8
Serbia & Montenegro n/a $0.129 $0.1 $0.143 $0.1 $0.425 $0.3
Slovakia $1.449 $0.681 $0.7 $0.880 $0.8 $1.219 $1.0
Slovenia $0.135 $0.139 $0.1 $0.192 $0.2 $0.447 $0.4
Spain $18.306 $24.036 $23.4 $15.151 $14.6 $22.493 $18.0
Sweden - $5.412 $5.3 $6.911 $6.7 $9.736 $7.8
Switzerland $1.150 $1.104 $1.1 $5.072 $4.9 n/a n/a
Switzerland (French-speaking) n/a $1.342 $1.3 $1.656 $1.6 n/a n/a
Switzerland (German-speaking) n/a $2.387 $2.3 $3.303 $3.2 n/a n/a
Turkey - $1.527 $1.4 $1.416 $1.3 $4.732 $3.2
Ukraine $0.785 $0.998 $0.8 $2.116 $2.2 $2.866 $1.0
United Kingdom $10.735 $59.437 $50.0 $34.025 $31.1 $64.734 $52.2
Latin America $89.4 $112.0 $94 $56.0 $55 $90.4 $61
Argentina $16.936 $19.303 $11.8 $8.745 $8.6 $11.555 $4.9
Bolivia n/a $1.000 $1.0 $0.910 $0.9 $0.810 $0.8
Brazil $32.063 $13.938 $13.2 $10.660 $11.5 $21.742 $15.4
Chile $6.936 $7.435 $7.2 $4.267 $4.3 $5.233 $4.2
Colombia $7.990 $6.272 $5.5 $5.525 $5.5 $6.268 $4.0
Ecuador n/a $2.811 $2.8 $2.495 $2.5 $2.479 $2.5
Mexico $22.500 $31.100 $26.2 $17.050 $15.7 $25.732 $17.7
Peru n/a $3.783 $3.6 $4.243 $4.2 $3.411 $2.8
Uruguay n/a $0.970 $0.9 $0.464 $0.5 $0.676 $0.5
Venezuela $2.941 $25.432 $16.2 $1.628 $1.0 $12.515 $7.9
Oceania $41.2 $26.7 $28 $24.0 $23 $31.1 $26
Australia $36.221 $23.400 $22.8 $21.369 $20.8 $26.701 $22.3
New Zealand $4.997 $3.339 $3.5 $2.662 $2.7 $4.430 $3.7

 

Edited by Jason
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