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FINDING DORY | 542.3 M overseas ● 1028.6 M worldwide

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This "disappointment" has already made more WW than BvS, a far more "sure thing" franchise film than a family movie sequel practically a generation on from the original could ever be.

 

It also cost slightly less to produce, and probably to market too.

 

To get anywhere near Nemo's levels of attendance - remember, we're comparing with one of the most beloved films of an era where computer animation tentpoles were rare and almost always huge - in the US was already impressive. To come anywhere near even the same raw revenue numbers in Europe with a release window that, by sheer accident, could scarcely have been worse-placed if you tried? Yeah, BV have to take that. Throw in a useful showing in China, and you have yet another megahit for a studio that is having one after another lately.

 

A delayed sequel like this, especially for a family movie, is never, ever a slam dunk. Heck, BV showed that themselves with Alice 2, and that had half the delay! Dory, though, is going down as one of the biggest animated hits ever.

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6 hours ago, Quigley said:

Disney now owns the four biggest 2016 films worldwide. Does any of you think SS or SLOP have chance of entering the Top 4? Cuz I can't imagine a scenario in which they will.

 

Not me. Best case scenario for Pets is $870M, $370M domestic + $500M OS. SS has already opened in almost all of its markets, with only major markets remaining Germany and Japan. Every CBM with a final OS gross more than 4x its foreign OW had a more staggered with release, with 2nd weekend market OWs being enough to reduce the multiplier under 4. So $530M OS best case scenario for SS. Based off of Friday numbers for SS, $300M absolute best case scenario. So not more than $830M WW.

 

Only remaining threat to Disney top five is Fantastic Beasts, which would have to beat both Moana and TJB.

Edited by Jason
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45 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Not me. Best case scenario for Pets is $870M, $370M domestic + $500M OS. SS has already opened in almost all of its markets, with only major markets remaining Germany and Japan. Every CBM with a final OS gross more than 4x its foreign OW had a more staggered with release, with 2nd weekend market OWs being enough to reduce the multiplier under 4. So $530M OS best case scenario for SS. Based off of Friday numbers for SS, $300M absolute best case scenario. So not more than $830M WW.

 

Only remaining threat to Disney top five is Fantastic Beasts, which would have to beat both Moana and TJB.

 

Suicide Squad won't come anywhere near $530M overseas. Even $400M is out of reach with no release in China. 

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On 13/08/2016 at 5:01 AM, Jason said:

 

Only remaining threat to Disney top five is Fantastic Beasts, which would have to beat both Moana and TJB.

And Rogue One, which only needs to retain 48.4% of TFA to get the billion.

 

Penguins of Madagascar retained 49.9% of Madagascar 3 two and a half years later. Just saying.

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9 minutes ago, ShinyDave said:

And Rogue One, which only needs to retain 48.4% of TFA to get the billion.

Rogue One is Disney. I was assuming that would be one of the top five. :D

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4 minutes ago, Jason said:

Rogue One is Disney. I was assuming that would be one of the top five. :D

Yeah knew it was Disney, I was putting that in as "films that FB needs to beat to thwart the Disney sweep" and hadn't clocked that you'd already factored that in with your wording!

Edited by ShinyDave
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Japan should do another 15-20mn and UK might add 10-15 DOM 7-8..current markets should be enough for 950

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Actuals usually go up by about 1 million. I can see this thread going into meltdown tracking the last 100M to the billion, if Zootopia was any indication :sarah:

 

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Current markets seem to be settled around 940M...945M tops.

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Screendaily - With no new openings, Finding Dory swum to an additional estimated $8.1m from its 27 territories for $420.6m to date.

Japan became the leading overseas market for Pixar’s latest as a $2.9m weekend lifted its local tally to $51m, while the UK fell only 37% on its way to a $3.3m third weekend for $35.9m to date.

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Germany and Italy are not the only countries left. The rest that haven't opened could defo provide another $20M, if not more.

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1 hour ago, Quigley said:

Germany and Italy are not the only countries left. The rest that haven't opened could defo provide another $20M, if not more.

 

True.  Norway, Sweden, Denmark,Turkey & Greece contributed about $18.5m to Inside Out

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$307M OS markets opening before July 14. (At $299M as of last weekend, gaining $7M from previous week. Probably at $303M once actuals come in for this week.)

$7M Hong Kong

$26M Mexico

$75M Japan

$52M UK

$482M US + Canada

=$949M

 

Domestic has potential to go a little higher with a labor day expansion. Estimate for OS markets before July 14 is a bit conservative. Japan estimate is from Corpse, UK estimate from Heretic, in the respective country threads. Overall, I would be very surprised if this total falls below $946M.

 

Remaining markets are Norway/Sweden/Finland/Greece/Turkey/Italy/Germany/Austria. If I recall correctly (don't have access to my spreadsheets right now), for Dory to fall short of $50M in the remaining markets it would have to gross less than the ER-adjusted totals of Nemo, TS3, IO, or Zootopia.

Edited by Jason
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Actuals: OS went slightly up, DOM slightly down. Mojo:

 

Domestic:  $476,725,279    53.1%
Foreign:  $420,796,838    46.9%

Worldwide:  $897,522,117  
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