FINDING DORY | 542.3 M overseas ● 1028.6 M worldwide

[YM!]

$50M more till Dory swims across the big $1B.

[Olive]

Current markets should get to 957-958M, 42-43M needed from Germany+Italy+Austria.

[Quigley]

Interesting perspective: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest still remains the highest-grossing first sequel in a franchise. Second is Despicable Me 2, soon to be passed by Finding Dory. That means that the two biggest first sequels of all time are for films both released in 2003 both by Disney. A debatable second place is actually still held by The Dark Knight (although not really a first sequel since many Batman films were released before that). 4th and 5th place are held by Lord of the Rings 2 and Shrek 2 (both sequels to 2001 films). Since Dory is almost certainly not surpassing Dead Man's Chest, it will be more than 10 years that that film holds this title. The only film having a serious chance of surpassing it is Avatar 2.

 

UPDATE: I'll add SLOP 2 as a possibility as well as Frozen 2, Wreck-It Ralph 2 and The Incredibles 2.

Edited September 12, 2016 by Quigley

[Purple Minion]

Actuals! DOM went slightly down, but OS half a million up.

 

Domestic:	$483,550,190	50.8%
+ Foreign:	$467,521,298	49.2%
= Worldwide:	$951,071,488

[Omni]

On 12/9/2016 at 2:12 AM, Quigley said:

UPDATE: I'll add SLOP 2 as a possibility as well as Frozen 2, Wreck-It Ralph 2 and The Incredibles 2.

Ralph 2? More than a billion dollars?

Needs one hell of a glitch to achieve that...

[jb007]

Am I the only one that feels Dory underperformed overseas? I do realize that it is ridiculous to use $1 bil. WW and underperformance in the same sentence.

 

Given Dory's fantastic domestic opening, I was thinking $1.2 bil WW. At least compared to the domestic performance, OS seems less impressive especially considering Nemo was a monster overseas.

[newbie BO buff]

19 minutes ago, jb007 said:

Am I the only one that feels Dory underperformed overseas? I do realize that it is ridiculous to use $1 bil. WW and underperformance in the same sentence.

 

Given Dory's fantastic domestic opening, I was thinking $1.2 bil WW. At least compared to the domestic performance, OS seems less impressive especially considering Nemo was a monster overseas.

 

I agree, this should have blitzed past 1 billion quite a while back.

[Omni]

It's not a matter of feeling or opinion, it's the only legitimate perspective. The sequel to the best selling DVD of all time couldn't even match the OS-China gross of the original.

In fact Jason, who was actually trying to cool people down in the first post and focus on negative factors such as ER, predicted 800M OS. It's doing 250M less than a number that was meant to be conservative.

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, Omni said:

It's not a matter of feeling or opinion, it's the only legitimate perspective. The sequel to the best selling DVD of all time couldn't even match the OS-China gross of the original.

In fact Jason, who was actually trying to cool people down in the first post and focus on negative factors such as ER, predicted 800M OS. It's doing 250M less than a number that was meant to be conservative.

$1.2 billion was conservative? That's just crazy talk.

[druv10]

3 hours ago, jb007 said:

Am I the only one that feels Dory underperformed overseas? I do realize that it is ridiculous to use $1 bil. WW and underperformance in the same sentence.

 

Given Dory's fantastic domestic opening, I was thinking $1.2 bil WW. At least compared to the domestic performance, OS seems less impressive especially considering Nemo was a monster overseas.

No, it definitely underperformed OS. Remember in current climate movies are hitting 60%, some even 70% of total gross from OS. In Dory's case, it still hasn't hit 50%. With Germany, Italy and Austria still to go, it's going to hit but just barely over 50% OS to total ratio. 

[jb007]

2 hours ago, Omni said:

It's not a matter of feeling or opinion, it's the only legitimate perspective. The sequel to the best selling DVD of all time couldn't even match the OS-China gross of the original.

In fact Jason, who was actually trying to cool people down in the first post and focus on negative factors such as ER, predicted 800M OS. It's doing 250M less than a number that was meant to be conservative.

 

800M OS does not seem outrageous given that Nemo did 525M OS in 2003 well before the market expansion and 3D. 

 

Further, domestically Dory seems to have matched the inflation adjusted gross of Nemo for the most part, partly due to 3D prices. Still the domestic gross met and even beat expections.

 

So the obvious conclusion is that the OS performance has been a disappointment.

 

 @druv10 rightly points to the os/dom ratio being 50/50. While OS cannot be analyzed as one homogeneous entity, there has to be reasons for this underperformance. 

 

It is even more perplexing after the fantastic OS performances of Zootopia and The Jungle Book.

Edited September 14, 2016 by jb007

[Omni]

On 14/9/2016 at 1:03 PM, cannastop said:

$1.2 billion was conservative? That's just crazy talk.

800M was meant to be a breathe of realistic conservatorism after the talks of Frozen going down, 1M OS being possible, and so on.

I don't think any user predicted an OS number under TJB's, or even 600M, or just 100 millions higher than BH6's.

[Quigley]

All true. This number is nothing but disappointing. It's been humiliated so much that the only way it can be humiliated further is if SLOP surpasses its OS gross (which I still think is possible).

[Fullbuster]

there is something people need to understand here : Nobody asked for a Nemo sequel, so it was a tough sell.

I wasn't excited myself about it because I never wanted a sequel and that seemed useless, it's not Toy Story or The Incredibles.

I was interested after seeing it, not before and I suspect people to think the same. I'm way more excited about Moana.

[Jason]

We've been down this road before. There is no doubt Dory has been a disappointment relative to almost all of our expectations, and certainly mine. (The lowest OS prediction I can recall was Agafin's at $710M. @Olive said "just hope for a billion WW" but didn't give a specific OS prediction.) Speaking only for myself, I looked at predictions of $900, $1B OS etc., and merely adjusted them downwards for exchange rate. I wasn't trying to be conservative, I was imagining gangbusters performance.

 

That being said, while I think we are almost all disappointed, I would argue that our high expectations were part of the problem. Now having examined the ER-adjusted regional/territorial breakdown for most of the highest-grossing animated films (and all of the recent ones), I can see that even $600M in ER-adjusted OS gross is exceptional, and Minions is the only animated film to have done that without spectacular performance in either China (Zootopia) or Japan (Frozen).

 

Also, while Dory has fallen short of Nemo in Europe and Japan, it probably wasn't realistic to have expected an increase there. Unlike the North American market, those box office markets have not grown substantially since 2003.

Edited September 14, 2016 by Jason

[cannastop]

I don't think Finding Dory has anything to be ashamed of in its overseas performance. Sure, Nemo's DVD sold like gangbusters, but that was 13 years ago.

 

Take away China, and it did just as well as Zootopia overseas, and it's going to be better once all is said and done. Sure, it didn't beat Frozen or Minions, but that doesn't mean that it's a failure. There was just bigger demand for the movie in its home market.

[Olive]

Take away China, it will end up around same range as SLOP or Zootopia, too original movies.

I'd say its performance is definitely disappointing, but it's not a failure at all. 

[Fullbuster]

Plus it is the second biggest movie of all-time on Brazil in local currency, and the only animated movie This year to pass $30m There. Without the terrible ER Dory would be around $50m in Brazil, definitely impressive.

 

So I can say it had a huge performance on at least one big OS market

[John Marston]

17 hours ago, jb007 said:

Am I the only one that feels Dory underperformed overseas? I do realize that it is ridiculous to use $1 bil. WW and underperformance in the same sentence.

 

Given Dory's fantastic domestic opening, I was thinking $1.2 bil WW. At least compared to the domestic performance, OS seems less impressive especially considering Nemo was a monster overseas.

 

 

 

yes it is disappointing overseas. Kind of reminds me what happened with The first Hobbit. A fine gross but still somewhat underwhelming due to the popularity of the previous films

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 

yes it is disappointing overseas. Kind of reminds me what happened with The first Hobbit. A fine gross but still somewhat underwhelming due to the popularity of the previous films

If $718m overseas is disappointing, I think you have way too high expectations.