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Wrath

BOT User Tracking 10/16-18 Bridge of Spies, Crimson Peak, Goosebumps, Woodlawn

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Sorry, weekend was busier than expected, I'll get caught up tomorrow. Need to get the next week started anyway, so here we are.

 

Please provide your 10/16-18 Opening Weekend predicts for:

 

Bridge of Spies

Crimson Peak

Goosebumps

Woodlawn

 

Deadline is Wednesday 5 PM EST.

You can post responses here, PM them to me, or post them in the Weekend Predict thread (but I'm only taking predictions from the Weekend Predict threat posted on last Saturday or later, up to the deadline). Thank you for participating!

Just as a reminder, the intent of this is produce a forum-wide prediction for each wide-opening movie's opening weekend. Everyone submits their 3-day predicts (even if a movie has a weird release date, we're just doing predicts for Fri-Sun), I note them all, aggregate the results, and put out some numbers of what our collective view point on the movies looks like, as well as how they compare with predicts from a few other well known sites. Then the next week, I'll compare our predicts with the actuals, see how we did, and recognize the most accurate predictor for each movie.

There's no purpose for this other than fun, and once the spreadsheet is big enough (in a few months, perhaps) I'll post it online somewhere so folks can go through it and see if there's anything interesting. Predicts can be posted here, PM'ed to me, and I'll also pull predicts from the Weekend Predict thread (as long as they are posted Saturday or later. Last Saturday, I mean. Posting the Saturday of the weekend we're predicting for would be totally cheating). Also, this in no way is in competition with the Weekend Predict thread. They serve different purposes and can happily co-exist.

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Compared to other sites, we were really bullish on Bridge, a little bullish on Crimson Peak, and right in the middle on Goosebumps and Woodlawn so we'll see how all that turns out. Interestingly, we were somewhat less confident in our predict on Bridge than Crimson Peak or Goosebumps (both of which had rather lower StnDev's than I would have guessed given their expected OW ranges), which is interesting because the other sites were the most confident on Bridge while rather more divided on the other two.  Woodlawn, as is usually the case with movies expected to under at $5M or less, is a crapshoot in percentage terms.

 

As usual, I went through the various predicts (19 for Bridge, Crimson, and Goosebumps, 13 for Woodlawn) and here's what we ended up with:

 

Bridge of Spies

Mean: 22.2M

Median: 22.0M

StnDev: 4.87M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 21.91%

High: 30.1M

Low: 12M

 

BO.com 17.5M

ComingSoon.com 15M

Deadline 15M

ScreenRant.com 16M

Variety 17M

 

 

Crimson Peak

Mean: 18.6M

Median: 18.5M

StnDev: 3.26M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 17.55%

High: 26.9M

Low 13.5M

 

BO.com 15M

ComingSoon.com 18M

Deadline 15M

ScreenRant.com 14M 

Variety 15M

 

Goosebumps

Mean: 26.7M

Median: 25.5M

StnDev: 4.46M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 16.69%

High: 38M

Low 19.7M

 

BO.com 29M

ComingSoon.com 29M

Deadline 24.5M

ScreenRant.com 24M 

Variety 2.5M

 

Woodlawn

Mean: 3.7M

Median: 4M

StnDev: 1.40M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 37.81%

High: 5.6M

Low 1.0M

 

BO.com 4M

ComingSoon.com 

Deadline 2.5M

ScreenRant.com 

Variety 4M

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Not a bad week at all. Woodlawn was excellent, Goosebumps was good and the other two were mediocre. Bridge's predict and actuals were startlingly close to Pan's.

 

Bridge of Spies

 

Prediction: 22.2M +/- 4.87M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 15.4M (off by 6.8M, so 1.40 stndev)

 

They're completely different films, but our predictions and the end result are almost exactly the same as what we had for Pan. Its uncanny how close they are. Fortunately, we had a slightly bigger stndev this time around so our miss wasn't quite as bad, but we were still the worst predictor out of the sites. babz06 had the closest predict at 17.

 

Crimson Peak 

 

Prediction: 18.6M +/- 3.26M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 13.1M (off by 5.5M, so 1.68 stndev)

 

Wow, that was a disappointment. As usual, the ones we're bullish on inevitably end up underperforming. Everyone else was high too, but not by as much. Best predict was by Bigosaurus at 13.5M

 

Goosebumps

 

Prediction: 26.7M +/- 4.46M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 23.6M (off by 3.1M, so 0.71 stndev)

 

Not bad. A respectable predict and much closer than BO.com or ComingSoon.net who both missed badly, but not as close as the other 3 who all nailed it. Sadly, we had a 4-way tie for closest at 24 so I'm not going to award to anyone specifically.

 

Woodlawn

 

Prediction: 3.7M +/- 1.4M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 4.0M (off by 0.3M, so 0.22 stndev)

 

Wow, darn good predict as though some miracle its OW came in pretty much exactly where everyone thought it would (Except Deadline, that is). In fact, it pushes The Martian out of our top 5 predict list. Best predict was Ethan Hunt at 4.

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