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mother! | 09.15.17 | Paramount | Darren Aronofsky, Jennifer Lawrence | Razzie Awards frontrunner

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2 minutes ago, lilmac said:

This would be better for an early December release. Strange that IT and mother! Are releasing so close. 

This probably would've gotten equally lost in December. I doubt this is gonna get any major awards recognition other than maybe a tech nom or two (and possibly a nomination for Lawrence in the Drama Actress category at the Golden Globes).

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10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm actually starting to think that American Assassin will open higher by a couple of million dollars than this. I doubt it goes as low as Detroit/Steve Jobs, but this is clearly gonna be a niche affair (and we're bound to see annoying hyperbolic headlines like "New Jennifer Lawrence Movie Flops at Box Office" and other variations by Monday morning).

Why would that be hyperbolic?  A film marketed as a horror film by "the biggest star in the world" opening to 10-12 million isn't a flop?  

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22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This probably would've gotten equally lost in December. I doubt this is gonna get any major awards recognition other than maybe a tech nom or two (and possibly a nomination for Lawrence in the Drama Actress category at the Golden Globes).

Pfeiffer will get in. Basically every contender in that category except Juno Temple has been seen (ranked by how likely I think each contender is):

 

Allison Janney: Unless Neon fucks the film's release up, she isn't losing.

Laurie Metcalf: I don't see how she misses a nomination. Lady Bird is probably A24's main push, and she's a very well-respected actress.

Michelle Pfeiffer: There will be enough fans of mother! in the Academy to get her into this somewhat barren field.

Octavia Spencer: This will be a coattail nomination.

Holly Hunter: A memorable role, but how well will Amazon keep The Big Sick in the conversation?

Hong Chau: Her chances keep going down. Downsizing is getting more mixed and negative reviews (it's down to 70% on RT), and some are calling her character a racist stereotype.

Melissa Leo: Novitiate has zero buzz whatsoever. The film won't go anywhere at the box office, and SPC has CMBYN to focus on.

Brooklynn Prince: She depends on both A24's campaign and how well the Academy goes for Florida Project.

Kristin Scott Thomas: This is a very small role, but she could coattail if the Academy really loves Darkest Hour.

 

That's about it (I'm not convinced Hostiles is coming out this year, and it might not be embraced that well).

 

Edit: Forgot about Mary J Blige for Mudbound, but the anti-Netflix stigma is still rampant. Netflix had the highest bid for I, Tonya by a wide margin, and they lost to the third (?) highest bid.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pfeiffer will get in. Basically every contender in that category except Juno Temple has been seen (ranked by how likely I think each contender is):

 

Allison Janney: Unless Neon fucks the film's release up, she isn't losing.

Laurie Metcalf: I don't see how she misses a nomination. Lady Bird is probably A24's main push, and she's a very well-respected actress.

Michelle Pfeiffer: There will be enough fans of mother! in the Academy to get her into this somewhat barren field.

Octavia Spencer: This will be a coattail nomination.

Holly Hunter: A memorable role, but how well will Amazon keep The Big Sick in the conversation?

Hong Chau: Her chances keep going down. Downsizing is getting more mixed and negative reviews (it's down to 70% on RT), and some are calling her character a racist stereotype.

Melissa Leo: Novitiate has zero buzz whatsoever. The film won't go anywhere at the box office, and SPC has CMBYN to focus on.

Brooklynn Prince: She depends on both A24's campaign and how well the Academy goes for Florida Project.

Kristin Scott Thomas: This is a very small role, but she could coattail if the Academy really loves Darkest Hour.

 

That's about it (I'm not convinced Hostiles is coming out this year, and it might not be embraced that well).

 

Edit: Forgot about Mary J Blige for Mudbound, but the anti-Netflix stigma is still rampant. Netflix had the highest bid for I, Tonya by a wide margin, and they lost to the third (?) highest bid.

Holly Hunter is very much in IMO. The Big Sick was a box office hit, has a chance in Original Screenplay, and she's got all the right clip moments, plus she's an Oscar winner with three additional nominations to her name as well (the most recent of which was 14 years ago so she's got the narrative to get back into the race for #5). It's also a performance that places like SAG and the Golden Globes will easily go for. Don't see how she misses.

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Wonder Wheel needs to premiere already so we know where the fuck to predict it if at all :lol: If Temple's role isn't nomination worthy and/or the film doesn't take off, I feel content keeping that Top 5 until the precursors start coming in. On the Actress side of things, Winslet missing would help open the already packed category a bit.

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The IT trailer voice over was awful, no question. I didn't even like the 'MOTHER!' growled at the end of the other trailers.  The trailers had set a tone and frankly that dark voice dispelled it.  However, I'm pretty sure none of that will be in the movie.

 

I personally wouldn't miss this, but it is all because I can't wait to see Jen in this kind of a role https://twitter.com/pipslawrence/status/90815482650424115 particularly when the vast majority of the the reviews say she is great or much better than great in it.   But I completely understand, even without reading the spoilers, that this is going to be a divisive movie, and that there will be those who will hate it.  So I have no predictions for the box office or awards either, at least until I have seen it.

 

 

 

Edited by trifle
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44 minutes ago, BXT said:

$30 million number is coming from The Wrap and THR as well.

yes, but I'm certain they got it from BOM.  Up until a day or so ago BOM had nothing, and ( @TalismanRing ) no interview I've heard said what the  budget is.  It may be $30M before tax credits which make it lower.  Or they could just be guessing. OR it might be actual fact. I'm not saying $30M is wrong, but it is considerably higher than how DA spoke about being given his head in part because it was so cheap.  The $13M everyone was saying up to the point BOM put this out seemed more in line with the discussion.


However I am hoping for clarification, if only because the Indie Spirit awards require a low budget and I was thinking this might possibly be eligible for those.

Edited by trifle
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52 minutes ago, John Marston said:

No way it cost only 13m. Actors salaries alone would add up to that much 

No, not for a passion project.  They would get their 'real' money in the back end, if any.  Actors want to work with certain directors, and with certain other actors.  They want to test their boundaries and sharpen their skills.  At least many of them do, and I know Jen does. She takes a lot less for indie type movies, because she knows that otherwise they wouldn't get made - or she would be priced out of them.

Edited by trifle
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4 hours ago, Jeriosnal said:

Why would that be hyperbolic?  A film marketed as a horror film by "the biggest star in the world" opening to 10-12 million isn't a flop?  

This is not close to a generic, commercial horror film. The reviews and WOM already make that perfectly clear even if audiences had never heard of the directior. Although I always enjoy the magic pixie dust theory of box office where a star is supposed to magically create box office regardless of all else.

 

That said, this film will likely be an awards player. I can see this film hanging around and then getting an expansion around January. 

Edited by straggler
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