ANNABELLE: CREATION | 08.11.17 | Warner Brothers | trailer 2 on page 7

[Krissykins]

I think the Nun will do well. 

 

But more like $30m/$75m. Great for a spin off. 

[MCKillswitch123]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think the Nun will do well. 

 

But more like $30m/$75m. Great for a spin off. 

No chance The Nun opens below 35M. Annabelle was a spin-off too, and that opened to 37M, and Creation, its successor, opened to 35M despite the previous film having terrible wom. Creation is also gonna end up with a far bigger DOM total, and possibly a bigger WW total, as well as much more positive goodwill, which will be helpful for The Nun in terms of franchise appeal.

 

And if Annabelle: Creation, the prequel successor to the awfully recieved Annabelle, opened to 35M and could potentially leg itself to 100M DOM, The Nun won't underperform when you take into consideration that there are surprisingly many, many people who consider The Conjuring 2 as better than the original.

 

All it takes is decent wom and you've got another 35+ opener/90M+ maker.

Edited September 3, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[Krissykins]

10 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

No chance The Nun opens below 35M. Annabelle was a spin-off too, and that opened to 37M, and Creation, its successor, opened to 35M despite the previous film having terrible wom. Creation is also gonna end up with a far bigger DOM total, and possibly a bigger WW total, as well as much more positive goodwill, which will be helpful for The Nun in terms of franchise appeal.

 

And if Annabelle: Creation, the prequel successor to the awfully recieved Annabelle, opened to 35M and could potentially leg itself to 100M DOM, The Nun won't underperform when you take into consideration that there are surprisingly many, many people who consider The Conjuring 2 as better than the original.

 

All it takes is decent wom and you've got another 35+ opener/90M+ maker.

 

I don't think the Nun is as recognisable or as easy a sell as Annabelle. 

 

Plus $75m for a horror movie isn't underperforming. 

Edited September 3, 2017 by Krissykins

[CJohn]

I think The Nun can do 40/100, but it is too early to make a prediction.

[MCKillswitch123]

14 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

I don't think the Nun is as recognisable or as easy a sell as Annabelle. 

 

Plus $75m for a horror movie isn't underperforming. 

I think they are comparable. A demon nun, a creepy possessed doll... neither of them are necessarily hard to sell to audiences. And again, Conjuring 2 is just as popular - if not more - than the original movie. In The Nun's favor, it's a movie that hits the traditional horror fanbase, + the same religious audience that made a lot of horror films with religion-inspired themes pretty big hits (obvious example being The Exorcist, but there are others.... like the similarly themed Exorcism Of Emily Rose, which made those same 75M without even being a franchise way back in 2005). Plus, The Conjuring movies have a lot of mainstream overlap, so you're tapping essentially into three widespread audiences at once.

 

And yeah, 75M isn't an underperformance for a horror movie (unless your movie has The Conjuring in the title... in that case, you have to admit that it is a steep stepdown, especially compared to a Conjuring 2-like budget of around 40M). I just think The Nun has too much going for it to avoid going below at least 80M. Plus, it has no competition (unless Meg cuts into its audience, but that's gonna be more like an action movie, not to mention shark flicks are beasts of their own kind).

Edited September 3, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[cheesypoofs]

On 8/28/2017 at 1:26 AM, cheesypoofs said:

Any chance this could leg out to 100m?

It's at 88m after a 7m weekend. I think it can inch it's way there

[cheesypoofs]

On 9/2/2017 at 5:42 PM, Mockingjay Raphael said:

Who knows? After IT, everything can change for the genre.

Maybe. I've always been a big horror fan so I'm just used to the usual numbers. I'm still thinking anywhere between 80-115 for the nun

[Mockingjay Raphael]

11 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 

I don't think the Nun is as recognisable or as easy a sell as Annabelle. 

 

Plus $75m for a horror movie isn't underperforming. 

Kriss, you're underestimating TCU's brand, just look at what happened to Annabelle: Criation, how many sequels of bad received Horror movies saw an increase? Not even when the first one is liked, the sequel is locked to increase, let alone increasing 20% on a rejected first movie. The TCU brand is so strong right now that, unless the movie has a terrible reception, the range for one of TCU movies is around $90m+, plus, The Nun is so iconic and memorable as Annabelle, the character went viral back in 2016, as the Portuguese man pointed, TC2 is so well liked as the first one, and The Nun is clearly the highlight of this movie. I can see it becoming the fourth $100m grosser for TCU.  

[YM!]

I would say $40M/$115M for Nun. I also think The Nun if good will outgross the other "horror" movie on OW and DOM: HT3.

Edited September 4, 2017 by YourMother

[BourneFan #1]

That Crooked Man movie will probably suck though.

[Zakiyyah6]

I think Nun isn't going under 80mil. She was the break out character of TC2. The Conjuring 2 is indeed good but the Crooked Man was the weakest thing about it so don't see that going much above 55mil.

[grim22]

Looks like The Nun may be screening this week, can't think of any other New Line horror movies which are awaiting release

 

 

 

[cheesypoofs]

Wait, are they really making a crooked man movie too?

[JB33]

3 hours ago, cheesypoofs said:

Wait, are they really making a crooked man movie too?

Yes, unfortunately. It doesn't make sense to me. The Annabelle and Nun spinoff movies make sense because those were actual entities/characters. The crooked man was a facade in THE CONJURING 2. There's no story to tell there. He doesn't exist.

[Krissykins]

On 03/09/2017 at 3:38 PM, MCKillswitch123 said:

I think they are comparable. A demon nun, a creepy possessed doll... neither of them are necessarily hard to sell to audiences. And again, Conjuring 2 is just as popular - if not more - than the original movie. In The Nun's favor, it's a movie that hits the traditional horror fanbase, + the same religious audience that made a lot of horror films with religion-inspired themes pretty big hits (obvious example being The Exorcist, but there are others.... like the similarly themed Exorcism Of Emily Rose, which made those same 75M without even being a franchise way back in 2005). Plus, The Conjuring movies have a lot of mainstream overlap, so you're tapping essentially into three widespread audiences at once.

 

And yeah, 75M isn't an underperformance for a horror movie (unless your movie has The Conjuring in the title... in that case, you have to admit that it is a steep stepdown, especially compared to a Conjuring 2-like budget of around 40M). I just think The Nun has too much going for it to avoid going below at least 80M. Plus, it has no competition (unless Meg cuts into its audience, but that's gonna be more like an action movie, not to mention shark flicks are beasts of their own kind).

$75m isn't a steep step down. Annabelle made $80m and she IS more recognisable than the Nun. Annabelle was the whole opening scene of the first Conjuring and has her own "true story" angle. The Nun was one jump scare in The Conjuring 2. 

 

This isn't going to cost $40m if Annabelle 2 cost $15m. I also don't agree that Conjuring 2 was more popular than the first film. 

On 04/09/2017 at 2:39 AM, Mockingjay Raphael said:

Kriss, you're underestimating TCU's brand, just look at what happened to Annabelle: Criation, how many sequels of bad received Horror movies saw an increase? Not even when the first one is liked, the sequel is locked to increase, let alone increasing 20% on a rejected first movie. The TCU brand is so strong right now that, unless the movie has a terrible reception, the range for one of TCU movies is around $90m+, plus, The Nun is so iconic and memorable as Annabelle, the character went viral back in 2016, as the Portuguese man pointed, TC2 is so well liked as the first one, and The Nun is clearly the highlight of this movie. I can see it becoming the fourth $100m grosser for TCU.  

I don't think the reception to the first Annabelle film is *clearly* as bad as you all think. It made $250m and it's sequel has increased. 

 

 

If $80m for the first Annabelle spin off is a hit and green lights a sequel, then $75m is a hit for The Nun. 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

This movie had one of the most remarkable runs of year, I still can’t believe that it managed to cross both $100m DOM and $300m WW. This franchise is unstoppable right now, at this pace I can see The Nun surpassing TC1 domestically and TC2 WW. 

[mredman]

Anyone else think its weird we have not heard about a 3rd Annabelle movie yet considering how massive this has been both critically and audience reaction?

 

Annabelle 2 was freaking fantastic. it was creepy as hell. The bell scene was so damn freaky and scary. I can't wait for the Nun she was very scary in Conjuring 2 and i love that its also written by the same guy who wrote this and IT. And it stars cutie Taissa Farmiga.

[Krissykins]

7 hours ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

This franchise is unstoppable right now, at this pace I can see The Nun surpassing TC1 domestically and TC2 WW. 

[Rman823]

5 hours ago, mredman said:

Anyone else think its weird we have not heard about a 3rd Annabelle movie yet considering how massive this has been both critically and audience reaction?

 

Annabelle 2 was freaking fantastic. it was creepy as hell. The bell scene was so damn freaky and scary. I can't wait for the Nun she was very scary in Conjuring 2 and i love that its also written by the same guy who wrote this and IT. And it stars cutie Taissa Farmiga.

I want a Conjuring 3 before an Annabelle 3. 

[MCKillswitch123]

On 17/09/2017 at 8:50 AM, Krissykins said:

$75m isn't a steep step down. Annabelle made $80m and she IS more recognisable than the Nun. Annabelle was the whole opening scene of the first Conjuring and has her own "true story" angle. The Nun was one jump scare in The Conjuring 2. 

 

This isn't going to cost $40m if Annabelle 2 cost $15m. I also don't agree that Conjuring 2 was more popular than the first film. 

I don't think the reception to the first Annabelle film is *clearly* as bad as you all think. It made $250m and it's sequel has increased. 

 

 

If $80m for the first Annabelle spin off is a hit and green lights a sequel, then $75m is a hit for The Nun. 

(Forgot to reply to this, not that I had to but out of politeness and argument's sake)

 

It IS a steep step down for the franchise. Especially now that Annabelle 2 made 100M DOM, proving that the spin-offs can pull those numbers too. The Nun was one jumpscare in The Conjuring 2, and probably THE jumpscare that everyone will remember (even moreso than Crooked Man). Not to mention the post-credits scene in Annabelle 2 that teased audiences with the arrival of this movie.

 

Also, you may disagree, but I have met my great sharehold of people (and it may seem anedoctal, but it's bigger than what you might expect) that told me they liked 2 more than 1. And finally, Annabelle 1 was a terrible movie (imo) and it has a 36% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes - comparatively, A:Creation has 71%, Conjuring has 83% and Conjuring 2 has 81%. How is that not clearly bad reception? Annabelle making 257M WW has more to do with a huge OS gross than anything (and these Conjuring movies have big OS appeal), because bigger DOM hits like The Ring, The Grudge and the 1st three Paranormal Activity movies all have a WW gross of just under 250M to straight up under 200M. Even the 175M DOM maker Get Out has made 252M WW, less than Annabelle's WW total.

 

I don't disagree that 75M would still be a hit for The Nun, but given the lack of competition, the franchise's possibilities and the fact that Annabelle 2 is actually on pace to outgross Conjuring 2's DOM numbers and maybe C1's WW numbers, the momentum is swinging too much in its favor for it to not make AT LEAST the same amounts of money that the awfully recieved Annabelle 1 did.

Edited September 24, 2017 by MCKillswitch123